Gone fishin'

Super Bowl pick? Recent trend says AFC again, and it'll be Miami

AFC Since 1999 Record and playoff appearances Team W L T PA Titans 56 24 0 4 Colts 51 29 0 4 Dolphins 50 30 0 3 Patriots 47 33 0 2 Ravens 47 33 0 3 Raiders 45 35 0 3 Broncos 44 36 0 2 Steelers 44 35 1 2 Chiefs 43 37 0 1 Jets 42 38 0 2 Jaguars 38 42 0 1 Bills 36 44 0 1 Browns 26 54 0 1 Chargers 26 54 0 0 Bengals 24 56 0 0 Texans * 9 23 0 0   * -- Joined the league in 2002.   Note: Seattle was in the AFC West before realignment in 2002. The Seahawks were 24-24 from 1999-2001, with one playoff season.

The 2004 season is less than four months away, but if you want to get a jump on the Super Bowl favorite, look no further than these eight teams: Tennessee, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, Baltimore, Oakland, Denver and Pittsburgh.

Why these eight teams, you ask? If the trend holds, the AFC will win its second Super Bowl in three years. The Broncos won in 1997-98, the Ravens in 2000 followed by the Patriots in '01, and New England again last season. And these teams have been the cream of the conference crop over the past five seasons, combining for a 384-256 record and 23 of 30 playoff appearances -- and the conference's top seed in four of the seasons.

Another plus for this group is its draft prowess. The Patriots had one of the best hauls on draft weekend, while the Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Ravens, Broncos and Colts all received high marks. Can anyone say 'reload'?

Toss in the league's co-MVPs in Tennessee's Steve McNair and Indy's Peyton Manning, and the AFC looks to have enough firepower to pull off back-to-back lifting of the Lombardi.

So which of the Elite Eight AFC teams is most likely to win Super Bowl XXXIX? Let's work from the bottom up:

• Steelers -- So Tommy Maddox was upset because Pittsburgh took Ben Roethlisberger with its first draft choice. Cry me a river -- or three of them, as the case may be. The Steelers still need to improve the league's 11th-ranked pass D, which had only 11 interceptions last season.

• Ravens -- Having Kyle Boller for a full season would be a step toward returning to the playoffs, but Baltimore is still a receiver, or three, away from making anyone shudder. If the Ravens make a run at the postseason, it will again be on the strength of the defense.

• Raiders -- Give the Silver and Black credit for addressing their defensive deficiencies by adding tackles Ted Washington and Warren Sapp and end Bobby Hamilton. And maybe Troy Hambrick can be the go-to back. If there's a sleeper among these AFC teams, it's Oakland (along with Kansas City, which just missed the eight-team cutoff).

• Titans -- McNair continues to make the most of a makeshift offense (OK, Derrick Mason not withstanding), which means Tennessee cannot be counted out. Still, the Titans lost several cogs on defense and will be tested often in the offensive-minded AFC South.

• Broncos -- Making up for the loss of Clinton Portis' yardage will be key; if Denver can coax a 1,300-yard season out of Garrison Hearst, the Broncos will make a lot of noise in January. However, if it's backfield-by-committee (read: no one steps up), Denver will be hard pressed to make the postseason.

• Colts -- The Triplets remain the top story in Indy, but the defense is the team's Achilles' heel. Four of the Colts' first five draft picks were spent on D, and rookie safety Bob Sanders could find himself in the line of fire from the opening kick off.

• Patriots -- Everyone was tossing around 'dynasty' after New England's victory against Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, but it remains to be seen how Corey Dillon, who publicly pouted his way out of Cincinnati, will mesh in the team-first system touted by Bill Belichick. And if Ty Law is jettisoned, it won't affect the way the Patriots play defense, so there's no reason to believe the unit won't be as suffocating as last year. Nonetheless, New England dodged a few bullets en route to its 14-2 mark ... and Lady Luck has to find a new suitor, doesn't she?

• Dolphins -- Forget a quarterback controversy; Jay Fiedler is the best man for the job, but A.J. Feeley is a nice insurance policy for when Fiedler goes down. And he will go down. Fiedler has missed 13 games the past two seasons.

Fiedler and Feeley's career numbers are comparable, both throwing a TD about every 22 attempts and a pick once every 27 attempts, and their passer ratings are similar. Familiarity with the Dolphins' system -- even under first-year offensive coordinator Chris Foerster -- should give Fiedler the edge coming out of training camp. After that, it's up to him to a) make the offense click and b) stay healthy.

"Chris is going to do a great job for the Dolphins," Peyton Manning said. "When he was here in Indianapolis, I appreciated his input in our offense, and I know our tight ends, Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark, did as well. He brings knowledge and passion to the game and will be a true asset in Miami."

Miami's offense is in good shape (the cross-your-fingers O-line overhaul not withstanding), especially if David Boston escapes the funk he's been in the past two seasons. If the line holds up, Ricky Williams can be counted on for 1,800 yards -- or more. But the breakout performer may be tight end Randy McMichael, who doesn't get the hype of Jeremy Shockey, but is equally as talented. 

Defensively, time is growing short for linebackers Junior Seau and Zach Thomas, but ends Jason Taylor and Adewale Ogunleye are the best bookends on one team in the game. The departure of Brock Marion will shake up the defensive backfield, but the foursome of Sam Madison, Patrick Surtain, Arturo Freeman and Sammy Knight remains solid (and don't be surprised if rookie CB Will Poole doesn't make his presence felt early in the season).

The Dolphins have 50 wins since 1999, third most in the AFC, but Miami is only 10-12 in the month of December. By comparison, the Patriots are 13-7 (8-0 in their Super Bowl-winning seasons), so winning down the stretch is something Dave Wannstedt must improve.

Miami plays five games against 2003 playoff teams, but the schedule makers cut the Dolphins a two-fold break by having the team go to New England in October (Week 5), which is early enough in the season that weather shouldn't be a factor, but far enough into the year that the offense and newcomers should have a feel for the game plan.

The toughest stretch of the season will be Weeks 11-17. After a bye in Week 10, Miami makes back-to-back trips to the left coast to play the Seahawks and Niners before playing host to the Bills, traveling to Denver, then hosting the Pats and Browns before wrapping up the regular season at Baltimore.

If the Dolphins survive that stretch at no worse than 5-2, they should be in position to make the short run up I-95 to Jacksonville's ALLTEL Stadium, site of Super Bowl XXXIX -- and win the AFC's second consecutive title to keep the two-out-of-three streak alive.

B. Duane Cross is a senior producer for SI.com.