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Swap meetSeveral teams at top of draft could switch picks to get their guyPosted: Thursday April 15, 2004 6:24PM; Updated: Friday April 16, 2004 11:16AM
With four of the teams in the top five slots at least exploring trades, and an ever-decreasing consensus on the rankings of the top three quarterbacks, there's very little about the first round of next week's NFL draft that has any air of certainty surrounding it. But even though the questions outnumber the answers by far this spring, here are 10 topics that are on nearly everyone's lips as the final stages of the draft build-up commence: 1. Will San Diego pull the trigger on a deal at No. 1?With an eight-year playoff drought that ranks second behind only Cincinnati, needless to say the Chargers can't afford any screw-ups in the pole position of this year's draft. Reading the tea leaves, there are those close to the situation in San Diego who believe the Chargers are afraid to pass on quarterback Eli Manning, widely considered the safest choice among the three top passers. That's understandable, given that the ghost of Ryan Leaf still haunts the team psyche like a recurring nightmare. But the Chargers are also sold on the instincts of quarterback Philip Rivers, and that's why they're less than even money to sit tight with the top pick. The smart bet says San Diego will make that long discussed deal with the No. 4 Giants, with New York moving up for Manning and the Chargers taking Rivers -- or possibly a receiver such as Mike or Roy Williams -- fourth. San Diego is known to have contacted the agents for Rivers, Manning, tackle Robert Gallery and safety Sean Taylor this week. If San Diego could somehow wrangle the Giants' high second-rounder out of them, a deal would probably occur. Another possibility is that New York ships Ike Hilliard to San Diego to help the Chargers address their receiver need, clearing the way for San Diego to take a quarterback at No. 4. 2. Which marriage of top-five team and player is the biggest lock?If Pitt receiver Larry Fitzgerald is available and Arizona passes on him at No. 3, I'll eat a Wilson regulation football, with the laces as a palate cleanser. It may not make a lot of sense for the Cardinals to take another receiver, after drafting Bryant Johnson and Anquan Boldin 1-2 in 2003, but that doesn't take into account that new head coach Dennis Green and Fitzgerald have a special bond from their days together in Minnesota. Or that Green considers his onetime ball boy a special play-maker, in the mold of a Randy Moss. If Fitzgerald isn't there for the Cardinals, then things could get a little interesting. It's believed that Arizona would explore a trade with No. 7 Cleveland, which covets a shot at Gallery, should he linger past No. 2. The Cardinals would likely then look at either receivers Mike or Roy Williams in the seventh slot. 3. How eager are the Raiders to trade out of the No. 2 spot?Let's put it this way: The Raiders have options galore right now, but their first three priorities are to listen, listen and listen to any and all offers that come their way. Oakland, with more than a few holes to address, would love to strike a deal and get a boatload of picks to infuse its roster with youth. But it also seems likely that the Raiders can't drop below Cleveland's No. 7 slot and still come away with one of the players they most covet. Namely Gallery, Roy Williams or Taylor. Everybody seems to have a different opinion on the Raiders' thinking. Some have them in love with sitting tight and taking Gallery. Others believe that Al Davis won't be able to pass on the big arm of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Another faction has had Davis locked in for a while now on Roy Williams and his blazing speed. In order, the Giants, Redskins and Browns are the Raiders' most likely trade partners, and you have to figure that Oakland will be looking to come away with either a pair of first-day picks in any deal, or maybe even a No. 1 in next year's draft. The hunch is that the Raiders are on the move come draft day. 4. What are the Patriots going to do with all that draft booty?When you've got two of the past three Lombardi's in the trophy case, and you own four of the top 63 picks, and seven of the top 128, life is good. The Pats may not land the headline names on draft weekend, but then, creating big splashes really isn't the New England way. With Antowain Smith sent out to pasture, the Patriots will definitely come away with a first-round running back (they have the 21st and 32nd picks). Michigan's Chris Perry is the name that makes the most sense at No. 21, because he's the kind of tough inside runner that Bill Belichick and Co. favor. Other needs that will be met with New England's two No. 1's and two No. 2's are at linebacker, where the Patriots are growing a little old, and at cornerback, where Ty Law's disenchantment will be dealt with by introducing him to his eventual replacement. As always, we can expect the Patriots to wheel and deal on draft weekend, turning their position of power into a further embarrassment of riches. I'd say a couple first-day trades and the landing of somebody's 2005 first-round pick sounds about right. 5. Which millionaire-to-be is the safest investment on the board?You can have your raging quarterback debate, and rave about the deepest collection of receivers in recent draft history. But there isn't a team in the league that wouldn't kill to be introducing Gallery at a Saturday evening news conference. The pony-tailed Iowa offensive tackle is that good, that clean, and that universally coveted. As one of the NFL's most highly respected personnel man told me this week: "If we had the No. 1 pick in this draft, we'd be taking Gallery, no questions asked. He's the whole package. I love his game, his toughness, his outlook, his approach to playing, everything about him. He's everything you'd want at that position. It'd be an easy pick for us.'' The consensus is that Gallery will go second overall, but whether or not Oakland makes that selection or deals it remains to be seen. The Giants, No. 5 Washington and No. 7 Cleveland all have Gallery in their sights if the right scenario presents itself. 6. Which of the top-flight receivers might wind up tumbling the furthest?As noted above, Fitzgerald isn't getting past No. 3 Arizona, so that leaves Roy and Mike Williams. If Roy Williams doesn't entice the Raiders into spending the No. 2 pick on him, there's a chance he doesn't come into play until Jacksonville at No. 9 or the Jets at No. 12. That would be a bit humbling for a prospect who once was considered a sure top-five pick. But Mike Williams, with his very average speed and a good, but far-from-great workout, might linger on the board even longer. Most personnel men now have him going somewhere in the teens, with No. 13 Buffalo said to be zeroing in him. If that's the case, he'll barely edge out Washington receiver Reggie Williams, who most consider the safe pick for San Francisco at No. 16. While this year's crop of receivers is the deepest in memory, that almost works against taking any one prospect too high, because the pool is so even that you can get almost the same value toward the middle or end of the first round. Some are convinced that Wisconsin's Lee Evans might wind up being the most productive receiver in this year's class, but he'll probably be pushed into the second round -- a'la Arizona's Anquan Boldin last year. Boldin and Steve Smith have proved in recent years that you don't have to take a first-round receiver to land a big-time play-maker. 7. Which other top prospects have seen slippage in recent weeks?Early on in the draft season, Oklahoma defensive tackle Tommie Harris looked like a potential top-seven pick. But in recent weeks, Harris's draft slot has started to slide, with some expressing concern that at 6-2, 292 pounds he's not quite big enough to withstand the rigors of being pounded on by NFL guards in a two-gap formation. He probably needs to add 20 pounds or so, which could spell a limited impact as a rookie. There have been recent rumors of a nagging shoulder problem, as well. In general, taking a defensive tackle real high makes some teams nervous. They rarely produce right away, and some, like last year's No. 4 overall pick, the Jets' Dewayne Robertson, have the aura of first-round bust hovering above them. Harris has drawn interest from No. 7 Cleveland, No. 10 Houston and No. 13 Buffalo, but teams seem to be cooling on him as the picking approaches. Another tumbler is Ohio State cornerback Chris Gamble, originally thought to be among the top three prospects at his position. Gamble didn't run as well as expected at his pro day (most had him between 4.53 and 4.59), and he's now considered a solid second-round pick, nowhere near the likes of Virginia Tech's DeAngelo Hall, South Carolina's Dunta Robinson or USC's Will Poole -- all of whom are expected to go well before Gamble. 8. Who's your guy if you need an impact player on defense this year?It's a great year to be the draft's top-rated defensive end, because as shallow as that particular pool is in 2004, USC's Kenechi Udeze looks all the better. Dominating pass rushers will always be in short supply, and Udeze has some rare athletic gifts that will make some team in the No. 9 through No. 13 range very happy indeed. Once more than 300 pounds early in his collegiate career, Udeze is down to 273 pounds and running 40s in the 4.7 range. He has the size, speed and strength to be heard from as a rookie, and his track record as a three-year starter for the Trojans (28 sacks in 37 games, with a school-record 14 forced fumbles and 51 tackles for loss) is proof that he's a playmaker who won't find the NFL game too big for him. A hard worker and high-character person, Udeze is polished and ready to step into an NFL lineup almost immediately. The No. 9 Jaguars are the top-slotted team that has shown heavy interest. 9. Will the three top quarterbacks all be gone in the draft's first dozen picks?With San Diego, Oakland, the Giants and No. 11 Pittsburgh all strong possibilities to take quarterbacks, there aren't many scenarios these days where any of the big three remain after the Steelers take their turn. Rivers is the wild card. While Manning looks more polished and has that great family NFL reputation to fall back on, there are respected league personnel men who have graded the North Carolina State star equal with Manning on their board. If things go conventionally, give Manning to the Chargers in the No. 1 spot, send Roethlisberger to New York at No. 4, and watch as the Steelers do handstands at the thought of getting Rivers at No. 11 (unless of course another quarterback-needy team like the No. 13 Bills tries to make a move for him and forces the Steelers to jump up into the top 10 to compete). But another scenario could be that the Giants land Manning at No. 1, San Diego trades down to No. 4 and picks Rivers, and Roethlisberger inspires a bidding war from the teams fighting to trade into the No. 5, 6 or 7 slots. All three quarterback gone in the top five? It could happen. 10. A week away from D-day, who look like the second-round gems?The names that have most of the buzz included Hawaii defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga, Wisconsin's Evans, and Tulane quarterback J.P. Losman. The No. 25 Packers and No. 26 Rams are both enamored of Losman, and he could be the fourth first-round passer taken. But if not, he'll be a steal for somebody who's poised at the top of the second round (Oakland? If it doesn't get into the first-round QB market). Sopoaga is a stout, strong playmaker who wowed scouts at the NFL Scouting Combine with 42 bench-press reps, and then reeled off 40 more at his pro workout day. His stock has risen steadily this spring, as he has shown off surprising quickness and agility for somebody who's 6-2 and 317 pounds. Evans' career has been up, down and back up. He looked like a sure-fire first-round pick after his breakthrough 2001 season, but then sat out 2002 with a knee injury suffered in spring drills. He came back strong in 2003, but showed some signs of favoring his injured left knee early in the season. But he ran a 4.3 40 at the Combine, and has caught everything in sight this spring, sending his stock climbing once more. Only the strength of this year's receiving class makes him a second-rounder.
Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com. |
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