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An early spin

It's only Week 10, but it's never too soon to look at the coaching carousel

Posted: Friday November 12, 2004 6:31PM; Updated: Friday November 12, 2004 6:31PM
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Dave Wannstedt
Dave Wannstedt certainly won't be the last coaching casualty of the NFL season.
Al Bello/Getty Images

Arriving at the midpoint of the NFL's regular season can only mean one thing: We're rapidly closing in on firing season. Now that Dave Wannstedt is out in Miami, the league's coaching bloodletting is under way, even before Thanksgiving.

Of this much we can be sure: In the three months between now and Super Bowl Sunday, there will be plenty more comings and goings, on the sidelines and in front offices.

Let's examine the potential head coaching and GM openings of several teams, before the game of musical chairs gets going in earnest:

MIAMI: Despite various pronouncements that have come out of South Florida this week in the wake of Wannstedt's not-too-surprising resignation, nothing about how the Dolphins are going to approach their hiring process is set in stone. The Dolphins don't want to put themselves in a box, because they don't have to.

Yes, Rick Spielman remains the team's general manager, and he apparently will have a role in the head-coaching search. Owner Wayne Huizenga likes and respects Spielman, and ideally he'd like Spielman to remain on board in 2005. But everything is subject to change, depending on which candidate or candidates blow Huizenga away in the interview process.

Let's say that LSU's Nick Saban gets involved with the Dolphins' search, and Huizenga becomes convinced that he's the answer. But Saban won't take the job unless he gets to bring in his own personnel man, giving Huizenga a decision to make. Does Huizenga lose his top candidate, or Spielman? The smart money would be on Saban winning the battle.

Another potential scenario: The Dolphins come after prized New England vice president of personnel Scott Pioli, dangling their general manager job and promising him the full authority to pick the team's next head coach. Again, the process would have headed in a direction in which Spielman's services would no longer be required, with Huizenga determined to not let the team's current front office structure dictate his choices.

However, the Dolphins might wind up facing neither of those situations, which would be good news for Spielman. Miami could simply choose to interview and hire the best available NFL coordinator from a pool that figures to include Eagles offensive coordinator Brad Childress, and both Patriots coordinators, Charlie Weis (offense) and Romeo Crennel (defense). Coaching candidates at that level wouldn't have the cache to influence who the Dolphins have as their personnel decision-maker, likely keeping Spielman in charge and running the show.

The reality is that Huizenga and the Dolphins had to give Spielman a vote of confidence this week, because for the next two or three months he's going to be vital to the club's personnel and draft planning for 2005. Leaving him to twist in the wind now would have rendered Spielman powerless.

Other salient points to keep in mind regarding Miami:

• Team president Eddie Jones confirmed that he'll retire in the spring. The Dolphins could replace him with a new executive to oversee the club's financial operations, but they could also wait to see if a new GM impacts that hire in any way. One potentially strong candidate for the president role would be Lal Heneghan, who was Cleveland's well-respected vice president of football operations and legal counsel until his puzzling dismissal by head coach Butch Davis earlier this year. Heneghan has an extensive cap background and worked for the league's management council before joining the expansion Browns in 1999.

• Huizenga will consult with former Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino in regards to the team's coaching and front-office searches. The owner trusts Marino's input and the Hall of Famer and one-time Dolphins top executive is already talking to people around the league and scouting out potential candidates.

• All things being equal, the Dolphins would love to hire an offensive-minded head coach, given that's where the team's problems lie. That preference would seem to favor Childress and Weis if Miami goes the NFL coordinator route. Childress is especially attractive given that he helped develop current Miami quarterback A.J. Feeley in Philadelphia, before Spielman traded a second-round pick to the Eagles to acquire him this year.

• Saban is likely to be very high on Miami's list, high enough to offset his defensive background. Dolphins sources indicate they aren't likely to go the recycled route, either, but instead Miami, for the first time in its franchise history, wants to get the best, fresh, first-time NFL head coach it can land. One potential candidate who would be an exception to that rule is Detroit defensive coordinator Dick Jauron, the former Bears head coach who has earned plaudits this season for his impressive work with the much-improved Lions.

CLEVELAND: With the Browns 3-5 and on a two-game losing streak, the pressure is steadily mounting on head coach Butch Davis, who somehow wrangled a contract extension out of Cleveland owner Randy Lerner last offseason despite a 5-11 finish in 2003. With home games against a pair of AFC powers in Pittsburgh and the Jets on tap the next two weeks, Davis could either seal his fate or turn around the season.

This much seems clear: Lerner has his sights set on pursuing Pioli, a former Browns personnel guy during the franchise's Bill Belichick coaching era, as a GM. It's fair to speculate that Pioli wouldn't be interested in the job if Davis were still around, but the thinking is the situation might resolve itself nicely without the Browns having to fire Davis. The former University of Miami head coach is said to be interested in returning to the college ranks, and the job he wants badly and already is angling for, according to league sources, is the University of Texas, where Mack Brown is perennially on the hot seat.

For the Browns, Davis jumping before he's pushed would be the best-case scenario. The earlier the better, thereby clearing their path to Pioli, who would then be free to hire his top choice as head coach. It's thought that Crennel would immediately jump to the head of that list. Weis would likely garner an interview as well, but there's speculation within the league that Weis and Pioli do not share a close working relationship.

While New England vice chairman Jonathan Kraft, the son of Patriots owner Bob Kraft, went on local radio in the Boston area recently and said the Patriots could block Pioli from moving to another team as a general manager, there is not thought to be any contractual basis for his claim. The jump would represent a clear-cut promotion for Pioli from his current title and hiring him from New England would not be restricted under the league's anti-tampering rules.

If Miami and Cleveland engage in a bidding war for Pioli's services, my money would be on the Browns for a few reasons: The Dolphins' potential ownership instability with Huizenga looking to sell, the Browns' solid chance to win from an ownership approach, and Pioli's previous experience in Cleveland, which he regarded as a comfortable fit in one of the league's premier old-guard cities. One more name to keep in the back of your mind in Cleveland? If he doesn't land Pioli, Lerner could take a run at Baltimore general manager Ozzie Newsome, although it's hard to imagine what it would take to extract the Browns Hall of Famer from the front office of a hated division rival (not to mention the franchise that left Cleveland for Baltimore in 1996).

NEW ORLEANS: That head coach Jim Haslett is a dead man walking is no longer really in question, especially after the Saints' week-after-the-bye 43-17 egg-laying in San Diego last Sunday, dropping New Orleans to a disappointing 3-5 in the winnable NFC South. The Saints' maddening inconsistency and lack of discipline in Haslett's five years on the job has been his undoing. He made the playoffs just once, in 2000, and New Orleans never managed to overcome its reputation as one of the NFL's premier country-club atmospheres.

The real question is, will owner Tom Benson let general manager Mickey Loomis lower the boom on Haslett and choose a new head coach, or will Benson sweep both men out the door and start over completely? The Saints seem to need an offensive-minded head coach, and Weis could emerge as a leading candidate. Another potential option for Weis could be the University of South Carolina job, if Lou Holtz retires as has been speculated.

ST. LOUIS: With always unpredictable head coach Mike Martz showing signs of wearing out his welcome, and general manager Charley Armey's contract up after this season, the Rams season will be at a crossroads Sunday when they play host to NFC West leading Seattle (5-3).

A loss would drop St. Louis (4-4) below .500, which could send things snowballing in the wrong direction. A win and the discontent will be quieted for a while, given that the Rams would be tied for first place, and a game ahead of Seattle owing to their two-game season-series sweep of the Seahawks.

With some of his more emotional and pointed comments this season, Martz seems to be daring the Rams to entertain the idea of canning him. When a head coach even starts going there, it usually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

MINNESOTA: With the Vikings in the midst of a two-game losing streak and heading for Green Bay on Sunday, head coach Mike Tice's future is inevitably a topic of conversation in the Twin Cities. Tice can't survive another second-half meltdown like the one that cost Minnesota a playoff berth last season after a 6-0 start. This year, a 5-1 start is a Lambeau loss away from being 5-4. That's a bit too familiar for Tice's job health.

Owner Red McCombs has a 2005 option built into Tice's contract, but he says he won't address the issue until season's end. It helps that Tice is the NFL's lowest-paid head coach at $750,000, because McCombs wants to sell the team and is in no mood to take on a big coaching contract. But there are those within the league who believe Tice could be out of a job even if he does squeak out a one-and-done playoff appearance. Much however depends on whether McCombs has a buyer for his stadium revenue-challenged team.

OAKLAND: It almost goes without saying, but when you work for Al Davis, everyone's on a year-to-year basis. First-year head coach Norv Turner stanched the bleeding with a win last week at Carolina, but Oakland is still 3-6 and the locker room situation is showing some of the same mutinous signs that did in Turner's predecessor, Bill Callahan. Because they answer to the Raiders' mysterious owner on a daily basis, just put Turner and Raiders senior personnel man Mike Lombardi on the potentially endangered list and leave them there. Check back at season's end.

KANSAS CITY: We're not saying it's likely that Dick Vermeil would walk away from the Chiefs after four seasons, but it's always possible. At 68, Vermeil at least might wrestle with the question of whether he has enough time and energy to get Kansas City's obvious defensive problems fixed and the team back on the road to the Super Bowl.

With Chiefs general manager Carl Peterson and Vermeil blood brothers, it would be Vermeil's call. But with K.C. offensive coordinator Al Saunders still waiting patiently in the wings for his turn to call the sideline shots, a wholly underachieving 6-10 finish this season could get Vermeil thinking retirement once again.

Long shots to make a change

SAN FRANCISCO: Things are bleak in 49er-ville, and there's rumblings that head coach Dennis Erickson wouldn't mind getting back to college coaching sooner rather than later. But it's also not likely that the fiscally-minded, Dr. John York-led 49ers organization will choose to fire Erickson and pay off the remaining two years of his contract.

Besides, after stripping the roster of so much talent, can you really blame Erickson for the 1-7 quagmire that passes for pro football in San Francisco these days?

DENVER: If the Broncos make it six consecutive seasons without a playoff win for head coach Mike Shanahan, it's at least open for debate as to whether owner Pat Bowlen would consider a shake-up. Shanahan seems to be spurning interest in the vacant University of Florida job, but if that job stays open for another month or so, and the Broncos' fortunes fade, who knows?

DALLAS: Some people around the league say that when head coach Bill Parcells starts to speak a certain way, with a certain disgusted resignation in his voice, he's already lost interest and stopped having fun.

"He's already talking that way," said one league observer. "Like the fun is already gone a year-and-a-half into this thing. When you start to hear that from him, he's already gone. That's what he's saying these days."

Parcells bolting after just two years in Dallas might sound shocking, but should anything the Tuna does surprise us? After his Cowboys started 8-3 last season, earning a renewed sense of league-wide acclaim for Parcells, Dallas has since gone 5-9, including the playoffs. Besides, there's at least one stunner of a coaching move every season, and Parcells leaving Dallas would be this year's example.

BUFFALO: General manager Tom Donahoe has been under the microscope from Day 1 this season, but the Bills winning three of their past four games under first-year head coach Mike Mularkey diffuses the pressure for now. Kudos to Donahoe for how good last year's first-round pick, running back Willis McGahee -- injured at the time -- looks about now.

• Three other general managers around the league have seemingly had their job security greatly strengthened by successful first halves: San Diego's A.J. Smith was on everyone's preseason hot-seat list, and Detroit's Matt Millen and the Jets' Terry Bradway also were thought vulnerable. New England would have an opening to fill in personnel if Pioli was to leave, and there are indications that veteran Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi has told friends that this will be his last season on the job. New York's director of player personnel Jerry Reese appears to have Accorsi's endorsement as his successor.

In Green Bay, the Packers still could opt to strip head coach Mike Sherman of his GM duties if the season ends in major disappointment, but it's too early to tell if there's any building momentum for such a move.

Don Banks covers pro football for SI.com.

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