
Chief concernCollapse on defense is what's made me rethink my Super Bowl predictionPosted: Friday January 9, 2004 3:22PM; Updated: Friday January 9, 2004 3:22PM I must have had 30 phone calls at home. "Please tell us who won your "E-mail of the Week Award. We can't wait," etc. I told them, "Look, I'm just not going to release it early." I promised the wire services that it's for a PM release Friday, and I'm not going to violate that commitment. So now I'm releasing it -- officially. The E-mail of the Week Award, and would you please get the photographers to set up in the main ballroom, not here, goes to Joe Portland of Pittsburgh. Wait a minute ... goes to Joe of Portland via Pittsburgh. (Linda, honey, would you please find out this guy's last name? ... We're supposed to run both when we give the award). His e-mail: "One question, one thank you." Well, the question is standard football stuff. Did the Steelers make a mistake in firing Tim Lewis? It's the thank you that got the award. What I'm being thanked for is recommending two Oregon Pinot Noirs for his fiancee. Joe writes: "She received a bottle each of the Rex Hill and Scott Henry you mentioned in response to my question in October and loved them both." I hear the sounds of chairs scraping on the floor, and I see people exiting. Of all the foolish, self-serving ... Hey, wait a minute. I'm allowed to indulge myself a little, aren't I? The only thing better than giving advice and having it followed is having it followed, and then something good coming of it. Makes an old person feel happy. The Tim Lewis situation. Bill Cowher wasn't going to fire him. But Lewis became obsessed with the idea that he was history. I mean, casual people would ask him, "How ya doin,' Tim?" And he'd say, "Pretty good for a guy who's gonna get fired." Finally Cowher asked him why he was telling everybody that. Lewis was non-committal. The situation grew seriously daffy. Finally, Cowher and Dan Rooney just said the hell with it and Lewis was gone. A self-fulfilling prophecy. From Terry H. of Kansas City: "Why are you so gutless?" Good question. 1) Because I'm getting old. 2) Because I'm getting fatter to go with the getting old. 3) Because brain cells are dying to the extent that I can't remember what I said a few weeks ago. 4) Because in reviewing my past life, I see that many errors were caused because of boldness. Such as staying out all night before Prof. DeMorelos' Spanish 101 final, and then flunking it, which meant that I didn't graduate on time, and thus the army moved in and awarded me a two-year stretch. Terry's question is in reference to the fact that I picked the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl in the preseason ... no, no, no, I don't mean the preseason Super Bowl, I mean that in the preseason, like August, I picked them to go to the Super Bowl, you dig?... and now I'm picking them to suffer an upset by the Colts. Why don't I have the courage of my convictions? That's an easy one. Because in August I didn't see them giving up 45 points to the Vikings. And 45 points and 508 yards to the Broncos. Jason of Raleigh, N.C., wants to know why I was more impressed with the Panthers D-line last year. I think that the individuals played better. If you want to look at stats, three of the four D-line starters had more sacks last year. Team sacks dropped to 40 from last year's 52, and that was on a 7-9 team, as opposed to an 11-5 club that should have more sack opportunities because more opponents were playing catch-up. Overall, ball carriers averaged 3.7 yards a crack against the Panthers in 2002, 4.0 this season. Last year the Carolina defense finished second in the NFL. This year it was eighth. Not all of that is the line's fault, of course, but some of it is. Allen of Topanga, Calif. offers a run of playoff predictions, which I will not comment on because Topanga is a known hotbed of betting, but his question is interesting because it touches on one of the great mysteries of the 2003 season. Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner. How ready will Rams coach Mike Martz be to give the former, should he screw up against the Panthers, the hook for the latter? The screw-up would have to be severe. Warner's career is in the dumper. How and why this happened, if the reason is not purely physical, will some day be the subject of his never-told-before autobiography. Todd of Baltimore almost won my E-mail of the Week Award because he came out of the closet and admitted that he's a fellow voyeur of rowdy fan behavior on the playing field. Incidentally, Todd, I was in Memorial Stadium in Baltimore the day Mike Curtis unloaded on that drunk who ran out and grabbed the football. I interviewed the guy afterward. Proudly showed me his jacket. "Hit me so hard he unzipped it, top to bottom," he said. Twenty minutes later he was suing. (Case thrown out). I also liked Todd's question because it played into another nasty thought that's been bubbling around in the back of my mind. Why is Steve McNair hurt all the time? Just injury prone, or maybe he doesn't really get himself in tip-top shape all the time? And, sez Todd, can we lighten up on the warrior angle and give Peyton Manning his due for showing up on time every Sunday and giving it a superior effort? A lot of meat to chew on there. We could be treating McNair a bit unfairly by questioning his injuries, but yes, these are questions that a true student of the game should be asking. I wonder myself, but unfortunately, I can't offer a definitive answer. It is, of course, not fashionable to hint at stuff like this, just as you would have drawn the very thunder of the heavens by suggesting that Brett Favre's big night against the Raiders involved, perhaps, some super-human adjustments by his receivers, as well as the worst coverage in the secondary since the early days of the AFL. From Alayne of Cincinnati: "Do you think that coach Gibbs still has what it takes to get the Skins to where they should be?" Depends on whether or not he came back solely for the pay check. If he goes along with that majority-rules system, as Steve Spurrier did, and lets Snyder and his yes-man, Vinny Cerrato, vote on his squad cuts, then I'd say he'll follow in the same path as Spurrier and Marty Schottenheimer did. If he keeps them away from football decisions, I'd say he has a chance. From Joe of Fredericksburg, Va.: "Should the Bills hire Marv Levy?" No. You can't ask a guy that age (78) to go through the coaching meat grinder. "Is he Buffalo's Joe Gibbs?" Not sure, until I see what the current vintage Gibbs is like. Heather of Nashville, Tenn., "a Colts fan in a Titans world," would like to know how McNair and Manning can share MVP honors when Manning's stats are better and he engineered two victories over Tennessee. MVP is a weird honor. Who's really to say which guy is the most valuable to his team, an award that actually could mean, which team would be worse off without him? I think McNair got a lot of support, mine at least, because he played through all the physical setbacks. As you can see, from the question I answered a while back, maybe the setbacks themselves should be examined. Now you've got me talking myself out of my original MVP choice. No, dammit, I'm in McNair's corner because of the toughness he brings to the field and the way his teammates seem to play off of that. But I also think Manning has had a terrific year. And so has The Flaming Redhead. And the boys choir at St. Timothy's. Steve of Appleton, Wis., offers many reasons why my pick of the Eagles over his beloved Packers is all wet, which is what a loyal Apple from Appleton should be doing. He wants my thoughts. Here they are. We're gonna get prohibition back, only this time it'll be different. The mobs'll be organized. From what movie? Key Largo. Thomas Gomez responding to Edward G. Robinson's, "Say something, say something." Wait a minute. You mean you want my SANE thoughts. You didn't say that. Packers' defense will give up too many yards and scores. Favre will throw two picks. Pack will get big rushing yardage, for a while, then will cut back on the running and play catch-up, which will be tough against that secondary, if everyone's healthy. From Rob of Denver: "How come we don't hear Gary Kubiak's name mentioned in the yearly coaching circus?" The failure of Brian Griese sent Gary's name into remission. People now figure it's Mike Shanahan's offense, not Kubiak's. Thanks for the compliment, Rob. Ever been to Buffalo Creek? I got married there -- the first time. Demetris of Boston, and I thank you for the nice things you wrote, wonders if the New England game might be the right time for the Titans to give Chris Brown more work. Before last week I'd have said yes, but Eddie George ran shockingly well against the Ravens. He was clearly more effective than your guy. But if his shoulder hampers him, then yes, Brown should get a heavier load. Tully of Lawrence, Kan., wants to know if Priest Holmes was underused this year. I think everybody was concerned about the hip. That's the only explanation I can see for what was, as you pointed out, a surprising lack of work in games in which he was most needed. Sometimes offensive coaches outthink themselves, too.
Ted of Tupelo, Miss., asks, "How should the Cowboys reload for next season?" Sign Mark Brunell. Sign a possession wideout. Tight end Jason Witten is the closest thing they have to a possession receiver now. Sign an OLB to split time with Dexter Coakley, who will be 32 during the course of the upcoming season. He's a little guy. He wears down. That's a start. I'll break precedent and give you the first, middle and last name of our next e-mailer because it has such class to it. Niels Christian Fredericksen of Copenhagen (my God, isn't that everything you ever asked for in a Danish name?) says he has only followed the NFL for about five years, but Manning's game against the Broncos was his all-timer. What was mine? First of all, I'd have to base my No. 1 on two things: how high were the stakes, and how tough was the defense? Phil Simms' 22-for-25 day against the Broncos in the '87 Super Bowl is right up there. So was Doug Williams' 340 yards and four TD passes against the same team one Super Bowl later. And of course, Joe Montana's come-from-behind Super Bowl win over the Bengals, and his game against the Cowboys' in the '82 NFC championship, and John Elway's winning drives against Cleveland. Wow, how can I pick one? Well, here's an odd, freaky one I can't get out of my mind. Fran Tarkenton, quarterbacking the Giants to a seven-point loss to the Cowboys in Dallas in 1971. The Cowboys were eventual Super Bowl champs. The Giants had nothing, I mean, zip. But Fran kept them in it through sheer force of will, bleeding first downs out of thin air. An unbelievable, heroic performance in a lost cause. Yes, it's a real freakshot but that's my No.1 quarterback performance of all time. Thanks to Lee of Bloomington, Ind., for his nice sentiments. "Jimmy obviously does a great job of filtering out the morons..." he writes. Yes, we keep them all in a room on the second floor of the Sports Illustrated building, and every hour we go in and sound a gong just to let them know we haven't forgotten them. "Here's hoping I'm not one of them," Lee adds. We'll find out. Answer this question: Which is correct? Each person must do their own thing. Each person must do his or her own thing. OK, you answered correctly, so I'll address your question, which involves the speed with which Indy scores. Does this rapid-fire approach really give the Colts' defense enough time to rest? Don't laugh, it's a very legitimate question, and I've asked it of defensive players on other slam-bang offensive teams. For the record, it's always, "Well, you can't complain as long as we're scoring," etc. But, off the record some of those guys have told me, "It's a bitch, man. I wish they'd take a little more time off the clock." It could be a problem against K.C., but I like the Colts to win anyway.
Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and SI.com. His Power Rankings, "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on SI.com. |
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