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Super Bowl XXXVIII Analysis

Posted: Tuesday January 27, 2004 4:53PM; Updated: Tuesday January 27, 2004 5:11PM
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Dr. Z takes a position-by-position look at Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Patriots and Panthers.

OFFENSE
Patriots   Panthers
David Givens (87)
At 6-0, 212 the Patriots' only big wideout. Really has come on in the postseason, with 12 catches in two games, to lead the club. A threat, short and long.
SE
 
Mushin Muhammad (87)
Another big guy (6-2, 217), he uses his size to muscle defenders downfield. Also a vicious blocker on the edge. The Panthers' leader in yards per catch at 15.5. Will occasionally drop one.
Matt Light (72)
Only a third-year pro but he's emerged as the solid man on what was once a patchwork line that has come together. Did a good job against Indy's Dwight Freeney.
LT
 
Todd Steussie (75)
Old pro who's basically hanging on at this point. Provides veteran leadership -- whatever that means -- but will be replaced by RT Jordan Gross next year.
Russ Hochstein (71)
A career backup until Damien Woody hurt his knee, going into the postseason. Has held up OK so far but never has faced anyone like Kris Jenkins.
LG
 
Jeno James (78)
Road-grader type. Powerful drive blocker who's adept at pulling right to add weight to the lead play. Solid four-year veteran.
Dan Koppen (67)
Fifth-round draft choice did such a remarkable job filling in for Woody in the second game of the regular season that Woody was moved to guard.
C
 
Jeff Mitchell (60)
Solid man in the middle. The glue that holds the front five together. Smart and seasoned. One of the NFL's most underrated centers.
Joe Andruzzi (63)
Teeth-gritter who has developed into a tough drive blocker. Has battled through injuries. Very effective when healthy.
RG
 
Kevin Donnalley (65)
Old pro who's still effective at the point but sometimes gets a little fluttery when too much heat is applied.
Tom Ashworth (68)
Street free agent who was rushed into service in Game No. 4. Had a rough start but gradually smoothed out his game.
RT
 
Jordan Gross (69)
Mobile and athletic first-round draft. More of an LT type and will play there next year. Quick enough to pull and lead.
Christian Fauria (88)
Gets into zones in which Tom Brady will look for him repeatedly, but can drop passes in bunches, too. Decent blocker.
TE
 
Kris Mangum (88)
Figures very little in passing game, but is an unselfish blocker who's most effective in motion, using "wham" technique.
Tom Brady (12)
Raises his game when stakes are highest. Inspirational leader, great in two-minute drill, but too much gut pressure can occasionally force him to spray the ball.
QB
 
Jake Delhomme (17)
Well-liked free-wheeling type who has led six comebacks this year. Had to win the trust of the coaching staff, which had him on the bench, behind Rodney Peete, at the season's start.
Antowain Smith (32)
Powerful banger who gets overlooked in Charlie Weis' offense. Kevin Faulk (33), fairly effective last year, is the forgotten man.
RB
 
Stephen Davis (48)
Wear-'em-down type of runner favored in John Fox's grinding offense. Backup DeShaun Foster (20) provides more flash and dash.
Larry Centers (31)
Cut in October, then re-signed in early December. Sees minimal action. TE Daniel Graham could be key man downfield Sunday, especially if he's covered by an LB. Troy Brown (80) didn't start against Indy but was a very effective third receiver in this spot; speedster Bethel Johnson (81) is the fourth wideout.
FB*
 

*Either team can line up with a fullback, two tight ends or three wide receivers.
Brad Hoover (45)
Once was the featured back. Extra blocker and occasional pass catcher now. Ex-Patriot TE Jermaine Wiggins (84) will come in as blocker and minimum-range receiver when Carolina goes two tights and old pro Ricky Proehl (81) will line up in this spot as the third WR
Deion Branch (83)
Steady producer in Weis' gnat attack. Started for Brown two weeks ago. Runs the short routes well and leads the team with a modest 57 catches.
FL
 
Steve Smith (89)
Has lifted his game to near Pro Bowl level, with 88 catches and seven TDs. Has good speed, plus a return man's shiftiness. Fearless over the middle.
0FFENSIVE EDGE: Even 5-5-1
DEFENSE
Patriots   Panthers
Willie McGinest (55)
Listed as an LB, he is actually more of a DE who drops. Big-league pass-rusher early in his career, now a heady ballhawk who is great at sniffing out screens. Has had a terrific year.
OLB-LE
 
Julius Peppers (90)
Undisciplined rusher and chaser as a rookie, he now plays a controlled game, steering the blocker and trying to read. Had a fine outing against the Rams three weeks ago, hustling all over the field. Al Wallace (96) is an agile pass-rusher who spells both ends.
Bobby Hamilton (91)
Ex-Jet, ex-Seahawk has found a home in Bill Belichick's base defense. McGinest or Mike Vrabel replaces him on the wing on passing downs. Ty Warren (94) occasionally spells him in the regular rotation.
LE-LT
 
Brentson Buckner (99)
Has come on strong in the playoffs. Big, strong, inside-pocket crusher. Can cause damage if too much attention is paid to his running mate, Kris Jenkins. Shane Burton (98) is Buckner's relief.
Ted Washington (72)
Bulky run-stuffer who gets lots of rest. Jarvis Green (97), who erupted in a pass-rushing frenzy against Indy (three sacks), is the reliever.
MG-RT
 
Kris Jenkins (77)
Seldom single-blocked. High-energy 335-pounder with a real burst. The Rams kept two blockers on him, in an inside-outside pincers, the whole game.
Richard Seymour (93)
Near-perfect technically. More effective as a DT, which he plays in the nickel, with Vrabel or McGinest going outside. Will destroy single-blocking.
RE
 
Mike Rucker (93)
Destructive outsideman but look for him to sink inside in the old 46-Bears look against the Pats, covering the LG, Hochstein. This could cause big problems.
Mike Vrabel (50)
Can go weak, too, or man the short zone in the middle to cut off the crossing patterns. Smart, tough, versatile. Playing the best football of his life.
SLB
 
Greg Favors (53)
Replaced Mark Fields, who is battling Hodgkin's disease, in the preseason. Basically a run-stopper. Comes out in the nickel.
Tedy Bruschi (54)
Injured his leg vs. Indy. Active and aggressive. Ball skills and big-play ability have really picked up. Will blitz on occasion. Old-style plugger Ted Johnson (52) will replace him, or sometimes even line up as strongside LB in same package.
MLB
 
Dan Morgan (55)
Only Panthers LB who stays on the field in all packages. Not a classic run-stuffer, but active, with decent ball awareness. Finally starting to come on after suffering hamstring pull and two concussions during the season.
Roman Phifer (95)
Versatile and active. Rams and Jets reject has gotten a second life in the Belichick system. Played a lot of man coverage vs. the TE against the Colts.
WLB
 
Will Witherspoon (54)
Quick and and active, will bounce all over the place making tackles, but will run around blocks, too, and leave gaps in the run defense.
Ty Law (24)
Best corner in football right now. Maybe because he's playing for his big contract; maybe, because, at 29, he has reached a natural peak. Lighter now, which really helps. Terrific break on the ball.
LCB
 
Ricky Manning (24)
Started as the nickelback, then moved into Terry Cousin's starting spot. At one time a target, but after his terrific, game-saving, one-handed interception vs. the Rams and his three picks against Philly, he is not to be messed with.
Rodney Harrison (37)
Most of the time the LS in the left-right setup, but will go strong, too. He and Law have a thing going between them. Coverage skills, to go with his big hitting, make him a legitimate All-Pro.
SS
 
Mike Minter (30)
High-energy, inspirational type. Plays much bigger than his 195 pounds. Great feel for the blitz. Has made many big plays this season. Would get the edge on almost every safety but Harrison.
Eugene Wilson (26)
Drafted in the first round, basically for his tackling ability, he figured as the nickel back until rookie Asante Samuel came on so well. Fit in nicely as a safety. Will lay the big wood on receivers.
FS
 
Deon Grant (27)
Drafted four years ago as a cover guy who shied away from the hitting, he has probably benefitted more than any player from John Fox's aggressive coaching. Is now a well-rounded safety in every phase -- including tackling.
Tyrone Poole (38)
Got off to a surprisingly good start this season after questioning himself in camp. Wearing down a bit now and looks tired at times.
RCB
 
Reggie Howard (23)
Plays hard and reacts well. Tough guy who attended Memphis State as a walk-on, came to the NFL as a free agent and was cut twice before winning a job.
Asante Samuel (22)
Active rookie who can cover downfield and looked too good to be true. For a while. Made some rookie mistakes later on in the year but still was a great find. The Pats seldom use a dime back, choosing instead to rely on LBs.
NICKEL/DIME
 
Terry Cousin (21)
Former starter. Will cover the slot receiver. Dante Wesley (29) will replace Witherspoon in the dime, and Jarod Cooper will come in, and often blitz, when the Panthers go to a three-man line on long-yardage situations.
DEFENSIVE EDGE: Patriots 7-3-2
SPECIAL TEAMS
Patriots   Panthers
Adam Vinatieri (4)
No longer is Mr. Automatic. He has missed a few during the regular season. Punter Ken Walter (13) was cut once during the season, but later re-signed. He's got the second-worst gross average (37.7) and ninth-worst net (33.6) in the NFL.
K-P
 
John Kasay (4)
He'd have been among the league's top three in FG percentage but he fell apart against Philly in the Nov. 30 game. Punter Todd Sauerbrun (10) has run up a high average (44.6) but he's wildly inconsistent.
Troy Brown isn't the scintillating punt returner he once was but he's consistent. Kick returning is divided among Faulk, who's unexciting, Bethel Johnson, who's 4.29 speed makes him scary, and a normal fullback, 217-pound Patrick Pass (35) who really slams it in there. RETURNS
 
Steve Smith, whose 10-yard punt-return average is about the same as Brown's, hasn't done anything in the postseason. He Hate Me/Rod Smart (32) popped one KR all the way in the regular season and has been energetic, if not thrilling, in the playoffs.
Both teams are pretty close on kick returns, the Patriots' 21.1 being slightly worse than Carolina's 20.4, but New England's punt-return unit, allowing a measly 6.3 yards, is second best in the league, while the Panthers' 11.5 ranks sixth from last. COVERAGE
 
 
 
SPECIAL TEAMS EDGE: Even 1-1-1
CAPSULE
The Patriots defense, with two weeks to prepare, forces a couple of early turnovers. Given a short field, Brady registers some quick scores. The Panthers have to play from behind, and Delhomme's last-minute heroics fall short.

FINAL SCORE: PATRIOTS 20, PANTHERS 17

Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and SI.com. His Power Rankings, Inside Football column and Mailbag appear weekly on SI.com. To send a question or comment to Dr. Z, click here.

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