Ladies and gentleman, the United States Open has finally begun. It took until Saturday, when the greens at Shinnecock Hills dried out, baked in the sun and crusted over until they were shinier than your kitchen linoleum, and the wind finally kicked up just enough to make club selection a guessing game.

Shinnecock Hills had been merely brushing its teeth the first two rounds.  Saturday, it finally bared them. Only three players broke par in the third round -- Tim Clark, 66; Charles Howell, 68; and Retief Goosen, 69 -- and only seven players remain under par for the week. That number will continue to dwindle Sunday as the forecast is for more of the same, and in spades: Sunny, warm and breezier as the day goes on. In short, scores will be the highest of the week.

It all means two things:

One, the guys playing later under the most pressure will have the toughest conditions. Which means the leaders are more likely to back up a bit, bunching the field and giving more contenders a chance to win -- which was exactly what happened at Shinnecock Hills in two previous Opens. The 1986 affair was a virtual stampede with a dozen players in the mix during Sunday's finale won by Ray Floyd, while in 1995, high winds separated a tight field in Saturday's third round, then Corey Pavin survived the annual war of attrition at the end.

Two, the real winner Sunday is going to be, you guessed it, Shinnecock HIlls, which is going to look every inch the nasty beast that a U.S. Open course is supposed to look and remind the world that this is the best golf course in the United States.

So, you're wondering, which player is actually going to emerge as the champion of the 104th Open? Well, I'm down to six names on my scorecard. Here's how I handicap the finish:

The Favorite: It still looks like Phil Mickelson's week, not to mention his year. He's already got the Masters on his resume and a win here would vault him into serious Grand Slam hysteria talk. Consider this: He finished bogey-bogey Saturday, and earlier had a Redan-induced three-putt double bogey at the borderline-unfair par-3 seventh green ... and he's still tied for second with Ernie Els, two strokes behind Goosen.

Nonetheless, Phil looks like he's still in control. He missed some putts, like a lipout at the 18th, that he appeared to have made. Just bad luck. The stats say he's playing great. Mickelson leads the tournament in greens hit in regulation (38) and is 12th in fairways hit. He's keeping it in play and what I like best of all, he is stroking his putts confidently -- well, except for that first one at the seventh, a putt as scary as trying to roll one down the staircase to your living room and getting it to stop on the fourth step. Phil won't be in the final group Sunday -- that's a plus. And he is America's favorite golfer, so the crowd will be rooting for him, and Els and Goosen will have to listen to the roars all day as Phil holes par-saving putts (like I said, Sunday isn't going to be a birdie-fest). Minor edge to Phil, who was in the final-group hotseat Saturday, for passing that position on to his competition, Els and Goosen.

Masters of the Obvious: Els and Goosen, old pals who actually served a mandatory stint in the South African Air Force together, are going to be factors. They both shot 34s on the back nine Saturday -- not many players got it under par on those finishing holes, which played considerably more difficult in a new crosswind. Goosen is playing solid golf -- he's sixth in greens hit and fourth in fairways hit -- and he's a steady putter. He's also so even-tempered that it's difficult to tell if he's got a pulse. He already has won one U.S. Open, the 2001 edition at Tulsa's Southern Hills.

Els, meanwhile, probably has the best short game on tour next to Tiger Woods. That is crucial because this tournament, as Shinnecock Hills firms up and gets nastier, will turn into a chipping and putting contest among the players who hit fairways. Few players hit as many as 12 greens Saturday and that number will probably go down for Sunday's final round. The leaders will miss, on average of 6-9 greens. They won't be making many birdies, given Sunday's difficult pins and scoring conditions, so it will boil down to who misses the greens in the best spots to get it up and down. Els is masterful at that, which is why he's won two U.S. Opens and one British Open. He isn't going to fold under pressure. It wouldn't be a surprise to have a Masters rematch at the finish -- Els versus Mickelson again, maybe even in (pardon this hideous and deplorable phrase) a Monday 18-hole playoff.

We've been waiting for a great rivalry to develop in golf. Wouldn't it be ironic if it turns out to be Mickelson and Els, and not involving Tiger?

Fairly Good: If you can win the Open with pure ballstriking (and you probably can't), Jeff Maggert is still in the hunt. You saw Saturday exactly why he hasn't won a major but why he so often hangs in there until the bitter end. His putter is not his best weapon. Maggert got to 7 under par on the front nine Saturday but three straight bogeys, starting at the eighth hole, killed his momentum and then his putter turned against him on the back. His 74 pushed him to 1-under, four shots behind Goosen but only two behind Els and Mickelson.

Maggert is a plodder, a fairways-and-greens guy. If he can somehow hit 15 greens and shoot 2-under, he's got a chance. But he's not in the same league with Ernie and Phil.

Canadian bakin': Let's see, my formula calls for a player who hits it straight and is a great chipper and putter. Sounds exactly like former Masters champ Mike Weir, everyone's favorite Canadian golfer. He has quietly flown beneath the radar by hanging at even par. He needs to shoot 67 to force himself into the picture and that's going to be a tall order Sunday, but he is not out of it. He may need to eagle the par-5 fifth hole to get in the mix. I'd like his chances better if the top three players weren't such major stalwarts.

Tiger mania: The greatest and/or luckiest shot in Open history might just be the 106-yard sand wedge shot that Tiger Woods spun back into the cup for an eagle on the final hole. You can stop laughing, now. That shot got Woods back to 4 over par. That's nine behind Goosen, a huge margin, but only seven behind second place -- still big, but not impossible.

The Tiger Woods of old would still be a serious threat in this position. The new Tiger, who hasn't played quite as well, probably won't pull this off, but you can't count him out yet. He needs an electric start, birdies on two of the first four holes and an eagle on the fifth, preferably. He needs to get his name on the board and utilize any intimidation factor his name may still carry. And he needs to shoot 63.

That may not be enough, even then. That gets him to 3 under par. You may normally expect the leaders to gargle and back up but with three in the group -- Els, Goosen and Mickelson -- they may push themselves harder to make birdies. Johnny Miller on NBC's telecast Saturday said four or five may be the magic number, then added, "Probably four." In that case, Tiger has to put up 62. It's a reach but it's been proven that it's a poor idea to bet against him.

What about the rest? They're still in it. Fred Funk is having an uncharacteristically hot week with the putter, usually his nemesis club. In fact, he's leading the tournament in putting, just ahead of Pavin. He'd be a great story if he won. I'm just not sure his putter can withstand the strain. Shigeki Maruyama shot 3-over on the back nine and seemed to crumble. He drives it straight and has been putting like a demon this week. Saturday's cracks, however, tell me he's not going to make a run at the title. Tim Clark, another South African, is an excellent wind player but again, the putter is the weakest club in his bag.

It'll come down to Phil and Ernie again. I'm leaning towards Phil, for no real reason. But it should be a nail-biting finish, just like at Augusta ... if we're lucky.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Gary Van Sickle writes for the magazine's Golf Plus section and is a regular contributor to SI.com.