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Familiar role

After making adjustments, Woods will return to his winning ways at Open

Updated: Wednesday July 14, 2004 7:31PM
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Vijay Singh
Vijay Singh made a run, but still couldn't catch Tiger Woods in the rankings.
Scott Halleran/Getty Images

If the World Golf Rankings were based on a vote like, say, the college football poll, they'd look something like this:
 1. Phil Mickelson
 
2. Vijay Singh
 
3. Retief Goosen
 
4. Ernie Els
 
5. Tiger Woods

This shows that Woods is no longer head and shoulders above everyone else -- not the way he has played for the last 18 months. There was talk not that long ago that Tiger was uncatchable in the official ranking points for a couple of years, yet here we are, watching Phil and Vijay and even Ernie nipping away, mathematically coming within one major win of catching Woods.

This week's British Open at Royal Troon could turn into some sort of tipping point. No, not cow tipping. Get your mind out of that Wisconsin gutter. I'm talking about a seismic shift in the golf scene. Woods was still a factor in the run-up to the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, but at the British Open this week, I'd say he no longer maintains his stature as the favorite.

Mickelson was oh-so-close to winning at Shinnecock in scintillating, Arnold Palmer-like fashion, and if Lefty had, we'd be buzzing with Grand Slam hype right now.

Singh, who has enjoyed a prolonged run of great golf, is overdue to tack on another major championship to his resume or risk being considered the King of the B's for all his wins in Tiger-less events.

Goosen's follow-up win in Europe solidified his return to the elite few and Els, with his wonderful short-game touch, should always be expected to contend in a British Open.

It's a new day in golf -- for the time being. It has taken, what? -- seven years to temporarily escape the all-Tiger all-the-time mentality that the sport has experienced since Woods' 1997 Masters blitzkrieg. Woods is not the player to beat this week at Troon, where he learned the hard way in '97 that you can't overpower a true links with long-ball golf, and you can't win a battle with a gorse bush -- you can only hope to survive it.

The big question for the week is going to be Mickelson's new precision game. Always a power player and a high-ball hitter, he has never fared very well in the Open Championship. His new attitude and control game won him the Masters and almost won him a U.S. Open. Will those shots turn him from pretender into contender on one of Britain's fiercest, into-the-wind back nines? I think the answer is yes.

I also like the way Mickelson is approaching the Open, studying the course and darting up for some practice rounds before last week's European Tour event at Loch Lomond and then on the weekend after missing the cut. Those two extra practice days could pay off if they help him with one or two shots.

In short, Mickelson's formula's for the majors, and for his game in general, is working. I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the leaderboard going into the weekend. I think his performance this year has earned him the role as favorite.

Here are five other players who should be in the mix, along with my pick to win the Claret Jug:

1. Els: This guy is such a good player with such a lovely swing and tempo that we almost take him for granted. He's one of the best players of his generation -- maybe the best. And if he played in the U.S. full-time instead of globetrotting, his record in America would be even more impressive to us. Americans don't pay any attention to golf in the rest of the world so they don't fully appreciate how great his worldwide record really is. He seems to have cooled off slightly since a hot stretch of golf early this year, but his game is so well-rounded and made for major championships. He has to be on anyone's short list of potential champions. Never bet against this guy, he'll break your heart.

2. Goosen: Unlike Ernie, his countryman from South Africa, Retief is underrated in the U.S. because his celebrity profile is low. He's not a terrific, wise-cracking interview, so American writers don't fill up the newspapers with 2,000-word features on the guy. Goosen has won two U.S. Opens, in case you missed it, and he's the best player on the European Tour. He went into a bit of a lull when his wife gave birth to their first baby last year, but now he's back, playing his best golf. You saw his putting display at Shinnecock Hills. A guy who makes pars like that can be dangerous on a links. See Ben Curtis last year for details.

3. Padraig Harrington: He may be the best European-born player at the moment, although Spain's Sergio Garcia is close. The knock on Harrington is that he is too cerebral, too smart, he thinks too much and he's a tad too mechanical, especially with his putting stroke. A late-bloomer, he's still on a learning curve to be a top-10 player in the world. He's close, and on a links course where the greens are usually slower than the lightning pace the PGA Tour usually features, that may be to his advantage. He knows how to win and he's proven it on the European Tour. The Open is Harrington's best chance to win a major. He's also among the nicest guys on the European or any other tour, so he's easy to root for. He, too, is bouncing back after a lull following his wife's first childbirth. He's had a knack for playing his way into contention during majors. One of these times, he's going to finish the job.

4. Garcia: I could still be a few years early on this call, but I like what Garcia has done with his game. He changed his swing in an effort to improve. You have to respect that. He was among the game's better drivers before -- fairly long and fairly straight. The changes have made him a better iron player and he has improved dramatically in stats categories, such as greens hit in regulation. He won the Byron Nelson tournament in Dallas this year and it looks like his game is maturing. A player who drives it straight and hits a lot of greens is a player who's built to win majors. Garcia will snag some. I'd expect a British to be on his resume one of these days, perhaps even this week.

5. And your winner will be.... Woods. Yeah, just when you thought Tigermania was over. Well, it's not over. It'll be back, as big as ever, the moment he wins again. You may have already read my opinion of where he stands with his game in this week's Sports Illustrated. Woods keeps saying he's close. He is. I especially like the fact that he finally faced up to reality and traded in his old, shorter steel-shafted driver for a new, high-tech Nike model with a graphite shaft. The field picked up 25 or 30 yards on Tiger from 1998 through 2003, thanks to bigger and better drivers, fancier shafts and hotter golf balls. With that distance edge went his intimidation factor and his margin for error. He's been putting great most of the year, and his chipping and wedge play have been as sharp as ever. His iron play has been pretty good, too. The big glitch has been some bad tee balls. He's still making a lot of birdies but the difference is, he's suddenly making more bogeys than he used to.

I wouldn't call Woods an underdog -- it would take a few years of bad play to turn him into that. But I think the sleeping Tiger is about to awaken and give the field at Royal Troon a slight surprise. Then we won't have to read any more nonsensical "what's-wrong-with-Tiger" stories. And when he retains his No. 1 spot in the World Rankings, we can once again feel, as we did for the past six years, that he has earned it.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Gary Van Sickle writes for the magazine's Golf Plus section and is a regular contributor to SI.com.

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