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Why Stanford should be No. 1

Poll stubbornness keeps Duke at the top, but Cards have the edge

Updated: Wednesday February 11, 2004 3:54PM
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Josh Childress
In a hypothetical matchup with Duke, Stanford could use lanky Josh Childress to harass J.J. Redick.
John W. McDonough/SI

Leading off this week's 'Bag, inquisitive reader Dennis Logie of Redwood City, Calif., wants to know: "Why don't voters see past Duke with its marred record (20-1) and vote in the true No. 1, undefeated Stanford (20-0)?"

You want the simple answer, Dennis? Duke is No. 1 because of a meaningless poll way back at the end of November, in which the Blue Devils stayed above Stanford after Duke's only loss (to Purdue on Nov. 29). At that point, of course, Stanford had played just two games and was ranked 21st in the country. (Duke dropped only to No. 6 with its loss.) Certainly nobody had any idea the Cardinal would go on to beat Kansas, Gonzaga and Arizona (twice) and remain spotless into mid-February. But that's what happened, leaving us in our current quandary. Even Brent Musburger picked up on it last week.

Arizona associate head coach Jim Rosborough (one of the 'Bag's all-time favorite assistants) thinks he knows why. "[The voters] just blast West Coast teams," he told the Arizona Daily Star recently. "If Stanford loses a game, they might drop out of the Top 10. But Duke can lose two in a row and go to No. 2. I honestly think there's a bias against the West Coast." And what about Duke? "I heard they're probably the greatest team in the history of basketball," cracked Roz. "It's ESPN. They're on there every single time."

So tell us how you really feel, Roz. (Though I must say it's hard to argue with the West Coast anonymity argument. Just ask Duke. How many people actually saw the Blue Devils' loss to Purdue in the Great White North, a game that started at 12:30 a.m ET?)

Anyway, we all know the polls don't really matter, especially in college hoops (thank god). But it's worth asking: Should Stanford (or for that matter, 20-0 Saint Joseph's) be No. 1 ahead of Duke?

For starters, let's dispense with any discussion of RPI, strength-of-schedule and any other stat-geek measures. We've had enough chances to see these teams several times. We know what they can do -- and what they can't. Based on what we've observed on the court, which team do we think is best?

Sorry, Saint Joseph's fans. The Hawks have the nation's best backcourt and are a heck of an inspirational storyline, but this yokel doesn't think they have enough force down low to beat Stanford or Duke.

That leaves the Cardinal and the Blue Devils, whose bicoastal rivalry has detonated a fair bit of discussion in this space before. (Remember the old Casey Jacobsen-Mike Dunleavy debate, Seth Davis?) Let's break it down, Jack Ramsay-style:

Backcourt

Both point guards, Duke's Chris Duhon and Stanford's Chris Hernandez, are first-rate leaders and league MVP candidates who can distribute the ball and have the stones to take big shots. (See Hernandez's 22-point second half to erase a 19-point deficit against Oregon, and Duhon's end-of-OT reverse layup to sink North Carolina.) Duhon is slightly quicker than his counterpart, but Hernandez is stronger and a better shooter. At two-guard, Stanford's Matt Lottich and Duke's J.J. Redick are both money spotting up from deep three-point range, though Redick has been absolutely sick over the past month or so. Hair's edge to Hernandez and Redick here.

Wildcards: Duke's Daniel Ewing adds a third offensive weapon in the backcourt that Stanford lacks ... unless Mike Montgomery opts to move out Josh Childress, the long-armed 6-foot-7 swingman who can rebound, stroke the three and use his length to hamper long-range shooters (like, say, Redick) at the defensive end. Remember what Childress did to Salim Stoudamire in Stanford's win at Arizona?

Edge: STANFORD (if the Cardinal has enough healthy bodies inside to sic Childress on Redick).

Frontcourt

Does Mike Krzyzewski go with his bigger lineup and put Shavlik Randolph and Shelden Williams on the court at the same time? If so, Childress would have to guard three-man Luol Deng (a more natural matchup). We suspect, however, that K would put his customary quicker lineup out there (Ewing for Randolph). In that case, does Stanford's Justin Davis have the defensive chops to guard Deng? We're not sure about that one. At full strength, Stanford certainly has more depth than Duke inside (see Davis/Rob Little/Matt Haryasz/Nick Robinson/Joe Kirchofer vs. Duke's Deng/Williams/Randolph). But as long as the Blue Devils can avoid foul trouble and stay with the Cardinal on the boards (no small task), I like Duke's low-post offensive skills (and Deng's late-season explosiveness, rare in a freshman) slightly better.

Edge: DUKE (unless the Blue Devils get into foul trouble).

Bench

In important games Duke only goes seven-deep, using Randolph and guard Sean Dockery. Stanford, by contrast, has 10 players who average at least 10 minutes a game (though with all of the Cardinal's injury troubles this season, I wouldn't expect all 10 to be available). Depth is often overrated, especially with all the timeouts in the postseason, but when there's this much of an imbalance, foul trouble could play a huge factor. Against a big team like the Cardinal, K might have to call on Nick Horvath, who has mysteriously been relegated to garbage-time duty this season. Could he handle the pressure?

Edge: STANFORD.

Experience

Stanford starts two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore. Duke starts one senior, one junior, two sophomores and a freshman. Duke has more NCAA tournament experience in recent years, though, and the Blue Devils' sophs get bonus points for having run the gauntlet of ACC basketball twice already.

Edge: EVEN.

Team Ball

It's this year's buzzword here at the 'Bag, and no team in the country fits the description better than these two. Still, if I had to name one team in which the whole is better than the sum of the parts, it wouldn't be that hard. And how many times this year has Stanford beaten good teams at less than full strength?

Edge: STANFORD.

Coaching

Coach K is the top bench boss of the past two decades. Monty is the coach of the year. Both are excellent game coaches who are willing to throw some wrinkles into their systems.

Edge: EVEN.

The Final Analysis

If Stanford is (relatively) healthy, if Childress is allowed to disrupt Duke's perimeter shooters, I like the Cardinal head-to-head on a neutral court. Add in that the Card has a better record than Duke, and it's not that hard: Stanford should be the No. 1 team in the country.

(By the way, Dennis, I just noticed Seth Davis named you "Hoop Thinker of the Week" in his latest column. Congratulations on hitting the daily double....) Opening the 'Bag...

Your All-Canadian team could have been improved by replacing Bill Wennington with Carl English, giving the team more quickness and better outside shooting.
 -- Pat McCabe, Hamilton, Ont.

If I were building a team to compete, you're probably right. I considered English (why the heck did he leave Hawaii a year early, by the way?), but I thought Wennington was a more accomplished player and I wanted to find a way to get him on there.

How far away are we from a mid-major school that is snubbed by the selection committee in favor of a major conference also-ran deciding to sue the NCAA on grounds of unfair competition and lost revenue? Don't you think if this happened the NCAA would take a more proactive approach to the issue of mid-majors not being able to schedule games against major-conference teams? -- Tim Weiss, Green Bay, Wis.

Unfortunately, any mid-major that had the guts to sue the NCAA would be labeled a pariah in the organization and be in for a world of hurt. The visionary thing for the NCAA to do would be to institute rules limiting the number of times a team could appear on national TV in a season and requiring a certain number of non-conference road games. It'll never happen, though, for a simple reason: $$$.

I'm a movie writer for Newsweek and a college hoops obsessive (went to Duke undergrad) and wanted to compliment both your column and your movie taste. My top five would look similar -- and thanks for touting the awesome Touching the Void. Two questions for ya, one movies, one hoops. Have you seen a Spanish film from early '03 called Intacto? If not, must check out. Hoops question: Any inside sense who will succeed Coach K, especially now that Quin Snyder's name appears sullied? Is Tommy Amaker back to being the chosen one? Or does my pick, Johnny Dawkins, stick around Durham till the job is his? -- Devin Gordon, New York, N.Y.

Thanks for reading the 'Bag, man. First: I haven't seen Intacto, though I have just now put it at No. 5 on my Netflix list. As for the latest odds on Coach K succession, a lot will depend on how long K stays in the game. He clearly still has a zest for coaching, and in my mind the only factor that could keep him from coaching for quite a while longer is his health. (As any Duke fan knows, Coach K is no stranger to hip surgery.) Could Dawkins become a Bill Guthridge and move one seat over when the time comes? I doubt it, just because there are other options out there who have head coaching experience. Snyder's future certainly appears murky these days (never mind the NCAA investigation; his preseason top 10 team is 10-10). Amaker has a distinct advantage over Notre Dame's Mike Brey in that he's a Duke alum. What's more, Amaker is only now seeing the end of Michigan's post-Fab Five sanctions, and I think he'll turn the Wolverines into a power again over the next five years.

Long story short: My money is on Amaker.

If (as everyone says) the ACC is the best conference and N.C. State is now the team with the second-best conference record, why isn't it ranked?
 -- Jay Masters, Orlando, Fla.

As I'm sure you noticed, Jay, the Wolfpack entered the Top 25 this week at No. 21. But are there 10 teams in America playing better than Herb Sendek's crew these days? Not in my book. The Pack is 8-2 in the ACC and the only team besides first-place Duke that can win consistently on the road in the league (see W's at Maryland, Florida State and Virginia). In one of the ACC's finest years ever, no game looms larger than Sunday's tilt between N.C. State and Duke in Raleigh. Even if the Wolfpack don't pull off the upset, it's about time that folks realized Sendek can hang with any coach in the country.

Will the Oregon Ducks get an invite to the Big Dance?
 -- Daryl Peloquin, Bainbridge Island, Wash.

Without any major non-conference wins, I don't see it happening for the Ducks unless they can get a W against Stanford or Arizona. The Pac-10 tournament (which neither Stanford or Arizona much cares about) might have to be the place.

Do you see many of the mid-majors getting into the NCAA tournament based on how they have done this year or do you see it as a year in which most of the big boys get in? -- Steven Culp, Akron, Ohio

Despite the down years in the Pac-10 and Big Ten, things have gone just as bad for most of the mid-majors. Right now I would say only Gonzaga, Southern Illinois and Utah State could get could get at-large bids -- and I figure only one of them (perhaps two) will need an at-large spot if it loses in its conference tournament. You know what that means: beaucoup bids for the ACC, SEC and Big East or Big 12. (As an aside for 'Bag readers, Coach Culp is an excellent assistant at St. Vincent-St. Mary High and coached LeBron James the last few years.)

7 Random Things

• Not a great week at Fordham. First, Temple coach John Chaney goes on a classic rant in which (among other things) he suggests throwing Fordham out of the Atlantic 10 for the upkeep of their visitors locker rooms. (Let's just say "rodents" factored into the discussion.) And then the Rams' director of basketball operations gets suspended after being caught in a ludicrous walkie-talkie scheme trying to steal plays from Xavier. The hilarious thing: Despite stealing the plays during the first half, Fordham was still down 40-20 at halftime. Don't you love it when cheaters still get their butts kicked?

• If Antwain Barbour plays this way the rest of the year, Kentucky's depth problems will end up being a thing of the past.

• Snaps to Washington State, which has come back from a disastrous stretch in late December to be competitive in the Pac-10, highlighted by last weekend's stunning sweep of USC and UCLA in Los Angeles.

• If Lawrence Roberts (Mississippi State) and John Lucas (Oklahoma State) are this good, why wasn't Baylor any better last year?

• If I had to pick my favorite non-sports magazine besides the New Yorker and The New York Times Magazine, it wouldn't be close: Cooks Illustrated. No lie. These guys are insane in their pursuit of the perfect home-cooked meals, desserts, etc. It's like Consumer Reports for the kitchen set.

• Picks from the 'Bag:

In theaters: The Fog of War. I'd been waiting two long months to see Errol Morris' ultrastylish long interview of former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara, and it was well worth the wait when I caught opening night here in Seattle last week. No matter what your politics are, every American voter should see this movie, brought to us by the same masterly filmmaker who did Mr. Death; Fast, Cheap and Out of Control; and The Thin Blue Line. If you ask me, Morris lets off McNamara a little too easy, but what McNamara does have to say is fascinating.

On DVD: Dogtown and Z-Boys. Finally caught Stacy Peralta's 2001 instant classic documentary examining the birth of L.A.'s skate scene in the 1970s. With Sean Penn narrating, we meet the visionaries who laid the path for Tony Hawk to make his millions. Made me want to go out and buy some new Vans the next day.

• No matter what happens in the trial of Jayson Williams, we've already proved one thing beyond a doubt: His mansion was WATN central. Not only was former WATN Benoit Benjamin there on the night of the incident, but here comes former WATN Dwayne Schintzius testifying about Williams allegedly shooting his dog in front of him. Next thing you know, we'll discover that all-time WATN target Michael Graham was the butler at Chez Williams.

WATN: Big Country found!

Many thanks to readers for pointing out the whereabouts of former Oklahoma State star Bryant (Big Country) Reeves, in particular David Hamby of Tulsa, Okla., who sent all sorts of info. These days Country is running a cattle operation in his hometown of Gans (pop. 208), and (as ESPN viewers saw this week) he gets to a lot of Cowboys games. It's not a bad life. Reeves lives with his wife, April, and their three kids (all under the age of 6), and he has become one of Gans' most prominent philanthropists. Not only did he contribute money to help start a football team at Gans High (where the gym is named Bryant Reeves Fieldhouse), but he also donated his family's former diner to the City of Gans for use as a new town hall.

Which brings us to next week's WATN, submitted by several readers:

Where in the world is Randolph Childress?

Finally, after last week's ode to U.S. International, we got a poignant note from former USIU player Michael Heygood of Dallas, Tex., who writes:

"I played for USIU between 1986-89, including some of the record-setting scoring games when Loyola had Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble. Playing for USIU was certainly an experience. We were a Division I independent that funded the school's entire athletic department. This meant out of our 28 games we would play 15-17 on the road against top-notch teams like Syracuse (with Derrick Coleman), Oregon State (with Gary Payton), Iowa State, etc., on the road to collect big paydays. Hey, come play for us, we're going to face all of those teams that wouldn't give you a scholarship. You'll be able to show them. The head coach, Gary Zarachy, worshiped the philosophies of Paul Westhead and the like. This meant that the basic philosophy was to score as much as you could to grab some headlines (even if you lost) in hopes that it would attract some recruits and maybe next year you could be competitive. In our typical road games, we would score in excess of 100 and lose by 20-30 points.

"One evening we played Brooklyn College (a rare road game in which we thought we might have a chance to actually win), the Bridges were up by 30 or so with a minute to go. The crowd started chanting the name of the 4-foot-11 '20th man' (who surely had to be a ballboy) with Revenge of the Nerds glasses on. He came off the bench and hit a 3-pointer with 10 seconds to go and the crowd went nuts. By far the lowest point in my college career.

"Ultimately, beginning in the early '90s, USIU encountered some financial problems and decided to drop its athletic programs altogether, in large part because with the change in the college conference alignments it became too hard for an independent to finance an entire athletic department. A few years after it dropped their athletic department altogether, the school went through a myriad of changes and mergers to the point where today there is really no semblance of the USIU that existed at the time of the record-breaking scoring days.

"I hadn't thought about those days in a while. Thanks for reminding me of them."

On that note, with a tear in the 'Bag's eye, we say see you next week.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl covers college basketball for the magazine and SI.com.

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