Will Tony Bobbitt and the Bearcats go cold in Round One? John W. McDonough/SI

Is Sunday here yet? No, you say? I'm dying here. I think this is how I used to feel as a 5-year-old waking up on Dec. 21.

This has been a weird year in college basketball. With the exception of a few teams, it's hard to tell who is good and who has just been lucky on occasion. At least five Top 25 teams could easily lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Which teams do you think are overrated and have a good chance at being "upset" in the tournament?
 -- Aaron Beddes, Mendon, Utah

I won't use the word overrated to describe the following teams (it's not entirely fair, and that word seems to set people off), but here are five Top 25 teams that I could see losing in the first round:

CINCINNATI. I know the Bearcats are part of the Magic Eight, but I'll admit that I read too much into their January win at Marquette. All credit to Conference USA for likely getting six teams in the tournament, but is this league really that good? The 'Bag is dubious.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE. Julius Hodge came up big this year and the Pack scored a second-place ACC finish (no small feat). But this team is one bad shooting night from an early exit.

ARIZONA. The 'Cats are a lot like North Carolina: enough talent for a Final Four run, and enough question marks for a first-round upset. Senior reserve Jason Ranne finally started filling the leadership vacuum last week by publicly calling out his teammates, but was it too late for a team that doesn't play team ball?

MEMPHIS. Coach Cal says he doesn't read The Commercial Appeal, and he probably won't read the 'Bag after I say that his Tigers are headed for another first-round departure. More pain for C-USA.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. The Salukis are making a habit of getting at-large bids from the Missouri Valley, which is an achievement (in a sense) but doesn't exactly inspire confidence in light of recent results. In fact, SIU reminds me a lot of last year's Creighton team -- the same Creighton team that was upset in Round One.

What are your thoughts on the Big West and WCC's new conference tourney format? I get that they want their best team to go to the NCAAs, but why even go through the motions of this quasi-tournament? Utah State and Pacific will only have to play one game before facing each other for the championship, while other teams would have to win four games to take the title. And under this system they still cut the ninth- and 10th-place teams from the tournament! You would think such an elaborate system of byes could accomodate 10 teams.
 -- Kyle Miller, Alta Loma, Calif.

Without going into another rant against Cheap TV Drama Week, let me applaud the Big West and WCC for changing their tournaments so that it 1) makes the conference season mean something, 2) prevents their top teams (Utah State and Gonzaga) from taking gratuitous RPI hits, 3) still gives their fifth- and sixth-place teams something to play for, and 4) punishes the stragglers (the ones finishing ninth and 10th) for being terrible. In fact, this tiered incentive system reminds me a lot of promotion-relegation in international soccer leagues, a system that maximizes fairness and excitement.

	MAILBAG Grant Wahl will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

Why has the charge (or block) call swung more to the defender in recent years? Back in the day, a defender had to establish position before the offensive player left his feet. Now I'm constantly seeing defenders sliding in front of the dribbler at the last instant and drawing charges. This irritates the hell out of me. Nobody ever seems to mention it, either.
 -- David Leverich, Lebanon, Mo.

O.K., I will go on a rant against the epidemic of lame charging calls overtaking the game these days. Say what you will about an offensive player who blatantly rams his shoulder/elbow into his defender, or an attacker who drives to the hoop out of control, but how often does a charging call result from a player being genuinely out of control? Not often, I'd argue.

The game would be well served by 1) introducing (and enlarging) the NBA's no-charge circle below the basket (where charges should never, ever be called), and 2) (more soccer talk) introducing yellow cards for defenders who take theatrical dives when barely touched by a ballhandler. ('Bag Hall of Famer Ricky Anderson of Arizona was the master of such Three Stooges embellishment. Then again, we're still bitter that Ricky once had an eye-watering case of flatulence in the 'Bag's rental car. Long story.) Anyway, yellow cards would serve to cut down on cheap charges, and they'd have the added benefit of great theater. (Imagine super-ref Ed Hightower flashing a yellow in the face of some hopeless flopper.) My suggestion: two yellow cards earns a mandatory five-minute benching for the perp.

Please join us for next week's rant on: Calling timeouts while falling out of bounds.

I read a story about Abar Rouse, the ex-Baylor assistant coach who taped Dave Bliss attempting to persuade his players to falsely implicate the late Patrick Dennehy as a drug dealer, in order to save Baylor from NCAA violations. ESPN interviewed Mike Krzyzewski, who said he would never hire an assistant who would tape his conversations. I thought that was out of character for Coach K to say. Assuming Coach K would never put himself in that type of situation, does the man's integrity mean nothing? If I'm a clean coach, that type of integrity would be noble, not a character flaw. Dwane Casey kept his mouth shut for Eddie Sutton here at Kentucky, and he took the brunt of the bad pub, but at least Casey still works in basketball. Abar Rouse can't even get a job as an equipment manager.
 -- Chris, Lexington, Ky.

Great points, Chris. Abar Rouse is the great untold story of the college basketball season. I've been trying to persuade Rouse to talk to SI for months, but he has gone into hiding and refuses to speak with any media. The circumstances are terrible, of course, but Rouse's tale would make for a fascinating story about right and wrong, integrity and loyalty in college basketball. Why did Rouse blow the whistle? What kinds of life experiences shaped what he did? Does he regret his decision? Does he think he'll ever coach in the NCAA again? I too heard Coach K's comments (along with a similar take by Jim Boeheim) and was surprised. While I understand that a head coach has to be able to trust his assistants, doesn't Rouse represent the kind of integrity-in-action that is sorely lacking in the coaching fraternity today? It's enough to make me think that the much-ballyhooed coaches "Integrity" summit in Chicago last October was a lip-service p.r. sham.

I'm a bit confused how everyone seems to keep ignoring Illinois. The Big Ten team you're "high" on (Wisconsin) didn't win the conference title, which the Illini took outright. How does this team, on a curent 10-game winning streak with a brutal schedule, fall below everyone's radar as a Final Four team?
 -- Kyle, East Albany, N.Y.

Granted, Illinois has been getting less attention than the other two likely Big Ten teams in the tournament, Wisconsin and Michigan State. But people who follow the game closely know that the Illini have sleeper Final Four potential. I'd argue that Illinois' lack of national pub of late comes in response to the Big Ten's "down" year, as well as the screwy unbalanced Big Ten schedule (which cheapens the league title). My guess is that Bruce Weber doesn't mind having the spotlight (and pressure) on other teams while his Illini plot a deep tournament run.

Most of the media keep ranking Emeka Okafor and Ryan Gomes the best players in the nation. Why is this? When any of these so-called stars play Pittsburgh, they are held 10 points or more below their normal offensive output. How far in the tourney does Pitt have to go before its players get their fair share of the credit as individuals?
 -- Bruce Beckerman, Pittsburgh

Ah, the old team-vs.-individual-honors debate. This is nothing new, Bruce, and it's just the way things are. But let me ask this: Why isn't it possible for Okafor and Gomes to be first-team All-Americans (as they should be) AND for Pittsburgh to go further in the tournament without as many individual honors? Isn't that enough for the Panthers in the Year of Team Ball? So far that appears to be the case, which reflects well upon the Pitt players and their coach, Jamie Dixon, for understanding that team success is the thing.

What are your thoughts on the potential deluge of high school seniors making the jump to the NBA (as many as nine or 10)? Is this due to an exceptionally strong senior class, or is it something we should get used to?
 -- Dan Tolhurst, Toronto

This is a pretty good senior class, Dan, but I think it has more to do with the relative dearth of "pro quality" in the college ranks this season. (By the way, some might call "pro quality" an oxymoron.) I don't think Sebastian Telfair would have been a lottery pick in last year's point guard-heavy draft, but he probably will be this time around.

I'm really disappointed with all the super conferences (ACC, Big East, C-USA) greedily competing for teams. It made me wish there were no conferences at all. Hypothetically, wouldn't the NCAA be able to operate collegiate basketball without all the league commissioners by working directly with the universities? As far as the basketball tournament goes, I think teams would be judged more fairly because they wouldn't be lumped with better or worse teams in their leagues. School pride is cool, conference pride is lame, isn't it?
 -- Alex, San Francisco

Interesting points, but the genie is out of the bottle on conferences, Alex. Despite a $6 billion TV package for hoops alone, the NCAA can't even organize a serious investigative department or come up with its own graduation rate numbers. So what makes you think it could take over for the conferences? I do agree with you that I've never been able to understand why there's so much "conference pride" out there. Aren't these supposed to be your rivals, the teams you hate most? Of course, such pride comes down to how it makes fans feel about their own teams. While Kansas fans don't want Missouri to win the national title, a deep Missouri tourney run would make Kansas look better for having beaten the Tigers.

With the additions to the Big East (Louisville, Cincy, etc.), do you think that there is a chance for the conference to have 10 to 12 teams in the NCAA tournament next year?
 -- Bill Moser, Pittsburgh

Won't happen. While you might see seven to nine teams make the tournament, somebody has to have a losing record in coference play. It'll make for a compelling conference race (much like the ACC has featured this year), but the fact remains that parity in conference play has a negative effect on the number of tournament teams a league produces -- unless that league goes almost spotless in non-conference play. (See ACC this year.)

How can you say the strangest thing you've seen in the last month is a goaltended 3-point shot? Apparently you never saw the dead ball 3-point shot counted in the Iowa State-Kansas game -- an unbelievable officiating call that very well may keep Iowa State out of the tourney.
 -- Joe, Minneapolis

Agreed, Joe, that may have been the bizarre play of the year. For those readers who don't know what we're talking about, Iowa State missed the first of two free throws, but Kansas rebounded and ran anyway, scoring a 3-pointer at the opposite end before the refs realized their mistake. The zebras allowed the Jayhawks' 3-pointer, then had Iowa State shoot the second free throw and retain possession of the ball. The Big 12 reviewed the case and said the refs acted correctly to fix the mistake, but it also reprimanded them for making the error in the first place. Kansas eventually won 90-89, preventing the Cyclones from getting a huge road W, and now ISU needs a big conference tourney run to have any chance of reaching the NCAAs.

Grant, what's the deal with UCLA? I don't think Steve Lavin was absolutely the best thing that had ever happened to UCLA by any stretch of the imagination, but he seems to have gotten more out of the squad he had then Ben Howland has been able to so far.
 -- Marc Worley, Miami

I don't think I'd say that Howland has gotten less out of his players than Lavin did. It's just that UCLA's 5-0 start in the Pac-10 raised expectations unnaturally for a team that has a lot of personnel holes. Despite the spate of recent losses, Howland's team has played better defense than it did under Lavin, and (as with any coach) I'd suggest you give Howland a couple years before you start reaching any conclusions about his regime.

One of my fellow physics professors here at James Madison pointed out to me that question No. 2 on Jim Harrick Jr.'s infamous final exam at Georgia actually has multiple correct answers. The question, "How many players are allowed to play at one time on any one team ..." offered the choices of 2, 3, 4 and 5. In fact, you are allowed to play four players. I've seen it happen on rare occasions, though I can't name them. If I were a student in this class, I would demand that my grade be recalculated since there was a flawed question on the final. Now the question: Have you ever heard of a team playing with just three players on the court at once?
 -- Chris Hughes, Harrisonburg, Va.

You're spot on, Prof. Hughes. Perhaps the joke's on us: Maybe Harrick saw all these hidden existential dilemmas in his questions and made them so simple on their face in order to make a brilliant point about the complicated nature of life itself.

Or maybe not.

Tell you what: If you're up for some serious comedy, check out Seth Davis' interview with the Lizard of Westwood himself, Jim Harrick Sr., who's trying to salvage his good name through some sort of campaign against his former employer. As for a team using just three players, I've never seen it at the college level. Have any of you readers?

A lot is made at this time of the year about bench play. Some coaches (Rick Barnes comes to mind) like to play a lot of guys, while others (Coach K) usually like to go with their top six or seven once the tournament rolls around. Obviously there are many factors, such as who you have sitting on your bench, that come into play. But all things being equal do you believe the nine- or 10-man rotation is better, or using your most reliable six or seven guys even if they get tired?
 -- Etan Frankel, New York

So what you're asking is: Does depth matter? I don't think it's the most important factor in tournament success, as Duke has demonstrated over the years. I'd argue that as long as you have seven or eight players you should be fine, and you might even be better off having that number. (About the only recent Final Four team that went 10-deep I can recall is Florida's 2000 finalist.) Fatigue doesn't generally become a problem in the NCAAs, since there are more stoppages of play and enough rest between games. At the same time, a six-man rotation is tempting fate on the foul-trouble front.

Where did the East Tennessee State "Fighting Wadoods" come from? Both my parents went there and had never heard of that name. They're called the Bucs, though my folks both call the school "Eetsy Teetsy."
 -- Andrew Wiseman, Washington, D.C.

If you followed ETSU very closely, Andrew, you'd know that its star this year is Zakee Wadood. But you can call them whatever you want as far as I'm concerned.

Eight random things

• Congratulations to Valpo's Homer Drew, one of the game's gentleman coaches, who came out of retirement after his son Scott left for Baylor and now leads his Crusaders back to the NCAA tournament. He also helped save the state of Indiana from the embarrassment of not having a single team in the NCAAs.

• Former Oklahoma State point guard (and 'Bag Hall of Famer) Doug Gottlieb is fast becoming one of our favorite color guys on ESPN broadcasts. The airwaves need more commentators who view the game from a player's perspective and are willing to point out mistakes made by coaches.

• That Magic Eight pick on Kentucky is looking pretty good these days, don't you think?

• I don't think there's any debate that Washington deserves to be in the NCAA tourney, and that's not just because I live in Seattle. When you beat Stanford, sweep Arizona and finish second in the Pac-10, I don't care what your RPI is. You're in.

• Could we just take a second and express our thanks to Saint Joseph's for providing the feel-good story of the past decade in college hoops?

• I still think Gonzaga is a Final Four team, but as high-powered as the Bulldogs' offense is, their D is questionable at times.

• Even though none of you punks bothered to ask, here are my end-of-season awards:

 Player of the Year: Jameer Nelson, Saint Joseph's
 Coach of the Year: Mike Montgomery, Stanford

All-America First Team
 Jameer Nelson, Saint Joseph's
 Blake Stepp, Gonzaga
 Ryan Gomes, Providence
 Josh Childress, Stanford
 Emeka Okafor, Connecticut

All-America Second Team
 Devin Harris, Wisconsin
 J.J. Redick, Duke
 Julius Hodge, North Carolina State
 Luke Jackson, Oregon
 Lawrence Roberts, Mississippi State

• Picks from the 'Bag:

On DVD: Intacto. Many thanks to reader Devin Gordon of New York City, who recommended this Spanish think-thriller starring Max von Sydow as a Holocaust survivor who tests, trades and takes good luck from a cast of memorable characters. Spain's got it going these days with films like The Devil's Backbone, Open Your Eyes and anything by Almodóvar, and you can add Intacto (which reminded me a lot of Memento) to the list.

WATN: Sam Okey found!

Got a surprising amount of response on the whereabouts of Sam Okey, the talented (and well-traveled) former Wisconsin Badger and Iowa Hawkeye. Sam appears to have struck a chord among folks in Big Ten country. Turns out that Okey is working in Madison, Wis., these days for a company that sells exercise equipment. Best of luck, Sam, and we wish you continued success in attaining folk-hero status in the Dairy State.

Next week's WATN (NCAA tournament edition): Where in the world is Dontae' Jones?

See you next week.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Grant Wahl covers college basketball for the magazine and SI.com.