

Fantasy FileSteals come with steep price tag, in more ways than onePosted: Wednesday May 26, 2004 12:51PM; Updated: Wednesday May 26, 2004 2:14PM
We're a little more than a quarter of the way through the season and it looks like there's a bit of a renaissance in stolen bases, with a handful of players already in double digits and a few more on track for the mid-to-high 20s in swipes. The chase for steals is an intriguing one, both at the draft and even now. Because of the nature of roto leagues, steals take on a life of their own. There are so few to go around (for the most part) that speedsters take on increased value. But getting steals often comes at the expense of other categories. For the most part, the best you can hope for from your speedsters is a decent batting average (or on-base percentage if you play with that stat) and a good number of runs scored. If you can find a player who can steal bases and hit homers and/or drive in runs plus offer a good average, his value can go through the roof. Let's take a look at some of the top base stealers out there and what they can do to a fantasy team. We'll also look at some of this year's current disappointments. Hit and runCarl Crawford, Devil Rays: Last year's AL steals king has a healthy lead on the competition again this year. Yet again, he's providing a decent batting average (this time right around the .300 mark). His walk rate has improved tremendously, which means he might be in better shape to keep that lofty average. He is proving his money's worth as a leadoff hitter for now. Scott Podsednik, Brewers: The current NL leader is trying to build off a surprising rookie year that showed you can find steals off the waiver wire if you act quickly enough. He's well on his way toward surpassing his 43 steals from 2003, and he's still perfect this year. Unfortunately, he's nowhere near the .300 mark he hit last year, which drags down his value a bit. But he's hit a few more homers and still scoring plenty of runs, so it's just a matter of time before his average gets back up to at least the .280 range and maybe even .300. Juan Pierre, Marlins: He's well off the pace of 65 from last year. In fact, he's a pretty mediocre 12-for-19 on steal attempts. On the plus side, he's hitting well above .300 and has five triples -- it is hard to steal bases when you're standing on third. His ability to hit for a high average has always helped his value, but you'd like to see him improve his steal percentage. Unfortunately, with Mike Piazza playing more first base, Pierre may not get as many chances to pump up those steals numbers. Alex Sanchez, Tigers: While lots of people like Pierre, many dislike Sanchez. This year, they're pretty much the same player. Both are hitting in the mid-.300s. Both are in double digits in steals but way off last year's ridiculous totals. Both are sporting steal rates just above 50 percent. You may not be getting your money's worth on Pierre, but Sanchez is probably cashing in nicely (unless your league counts net steals), despite playing for Detroit. However, Sanchez has just four walks, so beware of that average falling. The total packageCarlos Beltran, Royals: He's on pace for a 30-30 season and (for now) has an outside shot at 40-40 with another 100 RBI season. The downside is his .265 average, although you've got to believe he will get back to the .280-.290 range, especially with his walk rate in good shape. Of course, if he should get traded, anything could happen. But for now, he's the best five-category player out there with Alfonso Soriano putting up OK stats (six homers, six steals) and Vladimir Guerrero not running much (one steal). Bobby Abreu, Phillies: After a "down" year for him in 2003, he's getting the power and steals back into place. He's already at 11 homers after just 20 last year and he's a perfect seven-for-seven after a so-so 22-for-31 in 2003. His average numbers are about the same as last year, so the improvement in his counting numbers is a mighty fine thing. He's trying to move himself back into the Beltran range. Matt Lawton, Indians: Injuries kept his steals down in recent years, but he still has the potential for 30 swipes. He has eight homers and an average in the .320 range. Many fantasy owners had expected totals like this for a long time, and it may be coming true. Oddly enough, while he's on pace for career highs in many stats, his BB/K rate is well down after a number of years with more walks than strikeouts. Keep an eye on that with regards to his average, plus injuries still loom. Reggie Sanders, Cardinals: Surprisingly, he has been in double digits and homers each of his 13 full seasons. And he's one homer and one steal away from doing that again. Both numbers are a bit ahead of the pace of recent seasons, although his average is slightly down from his .270 career mark. Mike Cameron, Mets: He's been a consistent 20-20 guy for many years but the average has been below average. Bring him to New York, and he's still on pace for another 20-20 year, but an average near the Mendoza line isn't what people expected. Jacque Jones, Twins: He's running a lot more (eight steals; career-high 13) and his power is at the same rate as his 27-homer, 2002 performance. He's still in the .300 range, and his walk rate has improved slightly to give him a few more chances to get on base. Anything else to offer?Brian Roberts, Orioles: You can count on him to steal bases, but that's about it. He's at best a .260 hitter with not much pop, although he could score a few runs with some of the big bats ahead of him. At least he's got a solid on-base percentage, so he'll find ways to get steals (if he isn't always looking over his shoulder at Jerry Hairston). Dave Roberts, Dodgers: A hamstring injury has him on the DL, and that's definitely not a good thing for a speedster. He's been good for about 40 steals and not much else. Get him on the cheap. It's worth it as long as you find help from other players to boost your other categories. Otherwise, he's an offensive version of a closer (a one-category wonder), except that he piles up a bunch of at-bats to drag down your average. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: The good news is that he has 11 steals (more than halfway toward last year's total) and just 17 strikeouts. The bad news is that he's got just one homer and hitting in the .240 range. At least in the past, you could count on 10-12 homers with all those steals but a poor average. Now you're just getting steals with little else in return. To think, he once was elected to start an All-Star Game. SurprisesEndy Chavez, Expos: He surprised many with 18 steals last year and the eight this year are a pleasant surprise for those who hopefully got him cheap. He's a type of guy that you get very late or via free agency to fill in gaps and hope he steals enough to help your stats but doesn't play enough to drag the others down. For now, though, injuries to teammates have kept in the lineup and he's doing just fine with the chance to play. Tony Womack, Cardinals: He probably won't be stealing 50 or 60 bases anymore, but the mid-20s are very possible as long as he can continue to hit in the .270 range, which would keep him in the starting lineup. Chone Figgins, Angels: Injuries all over the Anaheim lineup will keep Figgins starting. He's making the most of his time with 10 steals and an average above .300 that should stay in that area. He had 13 in limited action last year, so who knows what Figgins can do over a full season. DisappointmentsIchiro Suzuki, Mariners: The average is back to where people expected, but he's just 7-for-12 on steals. Maybe he is slowing down. Luis Castillo, Marlins: Last year's hip injury slowed down Castillo, so few should be surprised by the seven steals so far. However, the .259 average is a big letdown. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels: He's still killing the ball, but he's not needed to steal bases anymore. Right now, his other production is more than making up for it, but it'd be nice to a few steals. Even Alex Rodriguez is on track for double-digit steals again. Oscar Azocars update: I'm still way behind the pack but I'm starting to luck out on benching players when they're doing well, including Victor Zambrano's and Julio Lugo's big games Tuesday. Thankfully, I had Zambrano for his nine-walk outing last week. The hitting is up and down, as I'm grateful for Mark Kotsay's struggles but realizing that I probably got Jason Phillips just as he was heating up. Shawn Estes is still an enigma, but at least I got a loss out of Joe Kennedy. It still doesn't help that I'm still leading the league in wins, no matter how hard I try to get losses. James Quintong is Fantasy Sports Producer at SI.com. |
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