Houston's postseason hopes couldn't survive Andy Pettitte's balky elbow. AP

At some point in this ridiculous trading season, you're either in or you're out. At some point in this jumbled mess of a summer, you have to decide whether you're playing for this year or playing for the next one.

At ... some ... point.

That, of course, is the tricky part. At what point? When do the Mets, for instance, decide that they're out of it? Or in it? When do the Marlins figure, well, maybe not this year? What about the Reds? The Brewers? What about the Cubs?

At what point do the Astros, for crying out loud, forget about winning this year and start working on getting better for 2005?

When do all these teams call off this standoff and just DO something? Anything?

"The challenge for teams like us is you are so dependent on your farm system for long-term success -- and yet nobody really cares about the future in this business," said Gerry Hunsicker, the general manager of the entirely aggravating, absolutely frustrating Astros. "You have to balance the two. You can make some trades to jumpstart the club, but you have to be careful about it. That could really set us back long term. It is really a difficult situation to be in."

Swapping players, to be certain, is a lot easier when you're 10 games ahead, like the Cardinals, or almost 30 back, like the Diamondbacks. It'd be a lot easier for everyone if there weren't that daggone wild-card business to think about, too.

But the wild card has made starry-eyed postseason hopefuls of practically the whole National League. With the wild card, there are 13 teams either in the lead in their division or within 7 1/2 games of a postseason spot. Everybody seems to be in the running. The Boston Braves are still in this thing.

So the Astros wait, and the Padres and Giants and Dodgers eye each other, and the Mets, three games under .500, talk. They don't do much of anything else, necessarily. Not yet. But they talk. Everybody talks.

By the time Saturday gets here, and the trade deadline comes and goes (it's at 4 p.m. ET), it's a good guess that most teams still will be sitting around, talking.

Many baseball executives expect things to be much livelier on the trade front next month, even though players have to go through waivers before a trade can be consummated. The reason for that is simple: Fewer teams will be in the running in August, theoretically, so more teams will be willing to deal.

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"I can't remember a year when there's been this much parity in baseball, when so many teams are still in contention," Hunsicker said. "This could be one of those unique years where everyone stays in contention until the end of September. But, chances are, as we get into the middle of August, some teams will start to fall to the wayside."

The strange part about the last few weeks is, even though it looks as if everybody is still in the race in the NL, everybody isn't really still in the race. Lots of teams are fooling themselves.

Does anyone believe that the Brewers still have a postseason chance? Anyone other than a few diehards in Milwaukee, that is? They haven't played in October since E.T. came out. The first time.

Are the Mets, who have holes bigger than the one in Kaz Matsui's mitt, really postseason material?

And what about those Astros? Maybe the most disappointing team in baseball, they went for broke this offseason, signing Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, threw more chips into the middle last month by trading for Carlos Beltran, yet they're still waffling around .500. They have no chance at winning the NL Central. With so many teams ahead of them in the wild-card race, they are a huge long shot for that.

Some already have speculated the Astros should give up on 2004, trade Beltran to get some prospects and get on with their rebuilding for '05 and beyond.

Similar discussions are going on all over the NL. But before a team calls it quits, there are fans to think about, and players, too. Folding now wouldn't look good to either group.

It's a delicate position to be in, and at this point -- at this point -- Hunsicker, for one, clearly doesn't want to throw in his cards.

"Carlos Beltran is an All-Star-caliber player and would fit on any team. We got Carlos to strengthen our club in an attempt to win," the GM said. "The speculation surrounding him is pure fantasy. We have no intention of trading him or any of our other key players as we focus on 2004."

For a lot of teams -- the Astros, maybe, being one of them -- staying in this game instead of positioning themselves for next year will prove to be exactly the wrong move. By the time they have to admit that they're out of the race, it will be too late to do anything that can help them next season.

But that's the danger of sticking around in this game too long. That's the gamble you take.

John Donovan is a senior writer for SI.com.