Wide receivers David Givens (left) and Deion Branch celebrate the Patriots' AFC title game victory. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

I will get to A-Rod, I will get to Drew Henson. But first, a sermon from your local common-sense (I hope) football observer.

There's a trend in the NFL that I'm not sure people are soaking in: You're never one player away, so don't go nuts chasing one guy in free agency.

The New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers just proved this. Last offseason, the Panthers were desperate for a running back and quarterback. They were so desperate they waited three weeks into free agency, after letting the market settle, before signing Stephen Davis. They were so desperate for Jake Delhomme that the Panthers let him walk out the door after his visit and risked the chance of the QB signing with Dallas. "It was important, after what's happened with this franchise in recent years, that we get those guys at a price we felt was right,'' Carolina GM Marty Hurney told me during the playoffs. He was referring to the teams' idiotic moves of the previous few years, such as dealing two first-round picks for a good but not franchise defensive tackle in Sean Gilbert and then paying him $47 million in bonus and salary, in what I would call the dumbest move by a team since free-agency was born in 1993. Total signing bonuses given to Davis and Delhomme: $4 million. Total value derived from them: Priceless. The Patriots may have signed the two most impactful defensive players in free agency last spring -- linebacker Rosevelt Colvin and safety Rodney Harrison. Colvin played but two games before hurting his hip; Harrison was a terrific player, leader and team conscience. The duo's combined cap values in 2003 and 2004 are $2.7 million and $5.2 million, collectively. The Cleveland Browns will have Ross Verba, the famous Ross Verba, on their cap for $650,000 more cap dollars in 2004 ($5.85 million) than Colvin and Harrison combined ($5.2 million).

I write this, with the start of free agency two weeks away, because I keep hearing, on talk shows and TV and the printed media, about all the big fish who are available, and how much money they'll all make. The biggest fish seems to be San Francisco wide receiver Terrell Owens, with his 51 touchdown catches in the last four years, the most of any receiver in football. He's in his prime and makes big plays. Who wouldn't pay big dough for him?

Let's, for a minute, forget that Owens is a cancer with no respect for authority, has barely average hands and is one of the biggest distractions in recent sports history. Just for a minute, though, because we'll get back to that.

Here's a list of the salary cap numbers of every skill-position player on the New England Patriots, winner of two of the last three Super Bowls:

Wide receiver: Deion Branch, $510,000; Troy Brown, $2.5 million; David Givens, $315,000; David Patten, $1.36 million; Dedric Ward, $481,000; Bethel Johnson, $455,000; J.J. Stokes, $36,000. (Stokes' salary is so low because he was only on the roster for two regular-season weeks.)

Tight end: Fred Baxter, $481,000; Christian Fauria, $972,000; Daniel Graham, $1.28 million.

Running back: Larry Centers, $133,000; Mike Cloud, $406,000; Kevin Faulk, $916,000; Fred McCrary, $611,000; Patrick Pass, $611,000; Antowain Smith, $2.3 million.

No stars, right? Well, there is a moral to this story -- Why do you need a star? You need a good scheme, and a protected quarterback, and receivers with good hands who run precise routes. You might say New England is a singular entity, one of the few teams in recent years that has won without a lot of big-moneymakers on offense. You would be right. But doesn't two out of three championships -- while having a league-high four picks in the first two rounds of the next draft -- tell you something?

This is what it should tell you: Big stars are vastly overrated.

Contributing players are not. Did you see the hands on Branch and Givens in this Super Bowl? Superb. Those guys don't drop balls, not even when clocked at the time of the catch. What more do you want out of your receivers? Speed? Escapability? Branch is fast. Bethel Johnson, the fourth wideout, is blazing fast. Givens is the next generation of great possession receiver.

I've said this before -- I'd rather have Brandon Lloyd on my team than Owens any day of the week. Lloyd's the kid from Illinois who finally got off the San Francisco bench this year. He caught only 14 balls, but two were the kind of catches that'd make Jerry Rice's career-highlight film. Circus catches. The kind that made you say, "Where has this guy been hiding?'' Owens had 80 receptions. I bet he dropped 15. He reamed out offensive aide Greg Knapp in Minnesota. He got hurt in Game 15 and later was seen on the sidelines talking on a cell phone, smiling and laughing. He intimated the starting quarterback, Jeff Garcia, had a subpar arm. After the season, I hear that a very influential member of the organization said if Owens was back in 2004, he'd rather be working for tips at a local golf course.

Who would I go after in free agency? Tennessee wideout Justin McCareins. He caught 47 balls for a gaudy 17.3-yard average, with seven touchdowns. He's a restricted free agent, which means he's a veteran of three seasons. The cap-strapped Titans must choose what kind of restriction to place on him. They could give McCareins a contract offer of $605,000, which would mean if a team signed the wideout, it would have to give Tennessee a fourth-round pick in return; that's the round in which the Titans drafted McCareins in 2001. Or Tennessee could put a $1.3-million tag on him, called a "tender;'' that would mean a team that signs McCareins would have to give the Titans its first-round pick in return. The gamble in putting the $1.3-million tender on McCareins is that if no other club signs him for that price, Tennessee would have to keep him on the roster at that pay for 2004.

It's possible that many restricted free agents -- McCareins, Philadelphia quarterback A.J. Feeley, Carolina wideout Steve Smith, Tennessee defensive tackle Robaire Smith -- could be attractive on the open market this year.

On Sunday, in the middle of February, the Boston Globe devoted about two-and-a-half full sports pages to a New York Yankees trade, with a total of about one-and-a-half pages on news about the other three pro sports teams in town -- the Bruins, Celtics and world champion Patriots.

"Someone else got the keys to the car and crashed it at halftime. We take responsibility for that because we gave them the keys to drive the car recklessly.''

--NFL commissioner Paul Tagliabue, about the Super Bowl halftime show.

Good variety this week. The Hall of Fame debate rages.

THE NFL'S DEFENSE REGARDING CLARETT IS PRETTY FEEBLE. From Chris Ochoa of Davis, Calif.: "It's ridiculous to hear NFL personnel folks and administrators say Maurice Clarett isn't 'physically' ready for the NFL. Football is still a game -- just like basketball and baseball. We've got 17- and 18-year olds dropping out of planes in the middle of the night at 10,000 feet over Iraq while trying to avoid anti-aircraft fire. That's real danger.''

Agreed. The Republic will survive.

THE GIANTS ARE IN A PRETTY IMPORTANT SPOT. From Tom Ferrante of Livingston, N.J.: "What do you think the Giants will do with the No. 4 pick? I know they need line help, but their linebackers really stink, and you win with defense.''

It's so hard to picture the Giants NOT taking Iowa tackle Robert Gallery. Look at how bad the line is, and look at what Tom Coughlin did (successfully) during his early days in Jacksonville, taking Tony Boselli and building everything on offense behind him. Gallery's 6-foot-7, 325, quick, an Eagle Scout (literally), Iowa's Senior Class president ... I mean, does he have Wellington Mara's vote or what (even with the long hair)? I hear the best defensive player in the draft is 6-3, 225-pound Miami safety Sean Taylor, but we'll see how things start shaking out this week at the combine in Indianapolis.

A VOTE FOR WARNER. From James Brydon of Dorion, Quebec: "It's nuts that people have turned their backs on Kurt Warner. Do people think that Warner simply forgot how to win? Don't they realize that seven of his last eight losses were away from home and against teams with a good defense? If win-loss record is all that matters, how about this one: Playoff wins for Warner -- five. Playoff wins for Bulger -- zero.''

Good points. But can you say it doesn't worry you that Warner hasn't played a very good game for the last two full NFL seasons? It's been 25 months now. I'm not anti-Warner, but the numbers don't lie -- zero wins, 14 interceptions and 15 fumbles in his last eight starts. Come on, James.

TWO MORE VIEWS ON THE HALL OF FAME. From Thomas Reagan of Arlington, Va.: "I respect your views on the Hall of Fame. The problem, though is the perception that Hall voters have held Cowboys to a higher standard. As an example, your case against Bob Hayes would be much stronger if Gale Sayers didn't make the Hall based on a five-year career. We're not asking for the moon, but if Lynn Swann is in the Hall, Drew Pearson should be too.''

You're talking to the wrong guy on Swann; I didn't vote for him. Re. Sayers: there are maybe three guys in history,-- Sayers, Jim Brown, ^{Otto Graham} -- who I believe could deserve to be in the Hall after a five-plus-year career. Sayers is the most exciting back of all time, and for half-a-decade was the best runner and returner in football. It's very close, but to me, that sort of impact represents a Hall of Fame player. If Brown or Graham had lasted five full seasons and parts of two others, I'd have supported them.

MAKE THE VOTE PUBLIC. From Brian Malik of Gaithersburg, Md.: "Why doesn't the Hall make the voting public? Baseball does (or at least it releases the totals). It might ensure against personal agendas/vendettas that I am certain exist in that room.''

I'm all for that. I support public voting. I find nothing wrong with it. Write the Hall and tell them your thoughts.

THE PATS DON'T NEED RECEIVERS. From Marc of Springfield, Mass.: "Why does everyone think the Patriots are in such desperate need for a wideout? While Deion Brach, Bethel Johnson, and David Givens might not be household names yet -- or ever -- they get the job done. New England has other needs to fill.''

I never said that. Ever. All I said last week was that I wonder if the Pats' surplus of picks will make them tempted to consider trading up for a big-time, low-ego receiver like Larry Fitzgerald. I neither suggested it was smart nor the thing to do.

So Sunday night, just after 8, Montclair High senior daughter Mary Beth and I boarded a Delta commuter in Newark, flew to Cincinnati and were set to transfer to another Delta commuter to South Bend. Mary Beth has been accepted to Notre Dame, and so she needed to spend a couple of days during her winter break seeing if the land of the Irish is the right college fit for her. The flight from Cincinnati was scheduled to leave at 11:05. Then 11:30. Then 12-something. Then the annoying gate agent tells everyone -- it was a fairly full flight, from the looks of the throng in the gate area -- the plane is en route from somewhere, will arrive in Cincinnati at 1:22, and should leave soon thereafter. Much grousing. Two angry men confront the agent. Delta personnel huddle. Then the announcement: Delta will roll out another commuter to fly us to South Bend. Little guy wins! Uh, just a minute. Wheels don't go up till 1:48 anyway. We get to South Bend at 2:30. Today's a busy day for Mary Beth -- tour, info session, class visit, cafeteria grub, dorming down with two nice sophomores -- and she prepped for it by getting to bed at 3:38.

Thanks, Delta. Continental, you're looking awfully good as I write this.

1. I think the best two points about the Alex Rodriguez trade to the Yankees that I heard over the weekend came from Peter Gammons. One: If you combined the Mets' and Braves' total payrolls, you'd still be $15 million shy of the Yankees'. Two: Baseball is now all about playing in October; who wins the division and who wins the wild card really isn't that important. In other words, with or without the trade, it looked like the Yankees and Red Sox would both make the playoffs. That is barring major injuries, of course. Now you'd have to be blind to think the Yankees, entering the season, aren't better than Boston on paper. I'm not sure this trade, dealing a 38-homer guy (Alfonso Soriano) for a 47-homer guy makes the Yankees 15 wins better, or any such nonsense. What the Yankees did to help themselves markedly was upgrade the bullpen. Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon as setup men for Mariano Rivera is a huge improvement. Now we'll just wait and see. I say the Yanks win 107, Boston 99, and both play in October.

2. I think I'm liking the feistiness of Curt Schilling. Did you catch what he penned for the Sox fan Web site "Sons of Sam Horn?'' He wrote: "Have to laugh at anyone that's even remotely shocked by this ... Hell yes it makes them better. Offensively, defensively it's not even close, they get much better. You can't bitch and moan about the lack of effort on the Red Sox end. They reached for the stars on this, and it didn't fit. I'm more than OK with that. They've worked their asses off to make this team a World Series contender, and we are, period. A-Rod to the Yankees, if it happens, just makes winning this whole thing that much sweeter. It's another challenge, but after 85 years did any of you think that getting over this final hurdle and winning it all was gonna be a cake walk? No, it'll be more fun this way ... Let's focus on the fact that the best Boston Red Sox team in the last 100 years takes the field in seven days, for a ride that is guaranteed to be the most memorable of any of our lives over the next 8 months, and enjoy the hell out of it.''

3. I think the best acquisition of the week in the NFL just may have been Oakland's hiring of Pats aide Rob Ryan as defensive coordinator. Great hire. The guy's really smart.

4. I think, No. 2 on the good hire front is running back Whisper Goodman, by the Bengals. The former Packers camp star has some shiftiness to him, and surprising power up the gut for a guy who runs likes a scatback. I think, especially with Corey Dillon likely gone, Goodman has a decent chance to be Cincinnati's third back.

5. I think the Henson stuff starts to get serious on Monday. This is the day Texans GM Charley Casserly begins phoning every team that was at Henson's workout last Thursday, in order to gauge interest in making a trade for the former Michigan star. If I had to guess at the landing spot for Henson, I'd say, in order: Buffalo, New York Giants, Green Bay, Miami, Dallas. My darkhorses: Tampa Bay, Cleveland. My guess at compensation: a second-round pick, in either 2004 or '05. Henson was very impressive at the workout, a 6-4, 230-pounder who can make all the throws. No one knows his amount of rust right now, but I'd sure love to risk a second-rounder in '05 to get him in my camp come April, when he can start sanding off said rust. I think the guy's going to be a good player.

6. I think these are my personal thoughts of the week:

a. There is no place calling my name louder as I inch toward my 50s than the north shore, the bay side, of Cape Cod.

b. Montclair High Mock Trial Note of the Week: A fine week for the Mountie barristers, who have risen from a low seed in the county tournament to beat Montclair Kimberly Academy and defending county champ Livingston. They face Seton Hall Prep in the finals this week. Boy, do they practice a lot.

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7. I think the Colts have painted themselves into a corner with Peyton Manning. Obviously they're not going to let him test the free-agent market; they'll sign him at the franchise price, which, for him, would be about $18.5 million this year and, if necessary, $22.1 next year. The Colts should have gotten a long-term deal done a couple of years ago. Those cap numbers are just too high.

8. I think if I had a cornerback need and wanted a youngish guy, I'd structure a win-win deal and go sign free agent Shawn Springs. He wants to show he's not an injury risk, and he wants to show he's a franchise corner.

9. I think if I'm Miami GM Rick Spielman, I'm camping out in Jacksonville and not leaving till I have a deal for Mark Brunell ... unless it's too late.

10. I think I'd like to have a side business this year. Red Sox-Yankees tickets. Box seats. Four of them, down low, for 19 games. You'd be able to sell them and prop up the government of a small Central American country for a decade.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Peter King covers the NFL beat for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Monday Morning Quarterback appears in this space every week.