Underdogs no more

Gonzaga -- yes, a 'mid-major' -- will be your 2004 NCAA champion

Ronny Turiaf is Gonzaga's mane man. Doug Pensinger/Getty Images NCAA Tournament Closer Looks Day 2 • Mark Beech: Pacific sticks to its guns • Phil Taylor: Bynum saves Yellow Jackets • Gene Menez: Vandy rides defense to victory • Gene Menez: Chalmers makes Muskies go Day 1 • John O'Keefe: Nelson revives St. Joe's • Grant Wahl: 'Bama can't rest after close call • Alexander Wolff: Manhattan could win again • Kelli Anderson: Mac keeps Syracuse alive SI Writers • Stewart Mandel: Now the fun starts • Stewart Mandel: Day 1 exposes pretenders • Seth Davis: Gonzaga will cut down the nets • Experts' Brackets: Our panel of writers' picks Second-round previews • Mike Jarvis's Game Plans: Saturday • Luke Winn: Second-round Pickoff More from SI.com • Printable brackets: Men | Women • E-mail Alerts | Hoops Bracket Challenge • Complete coverage | Daily schedule

I'll admit that were it not for the magic of digital video recording, I might be as skeptical as the rest of you about just how good Gonzaga is. Had I not seen them play much, I could dismiss the Zags' gaudy record by saying they play in the weak West Coast Conference. This would make them the Saint Joseph's of the East Coast (or perhaps even the Stanford of the Pacific Northwest).

But I've seen the Zags once in person and more than a dozen times on television, and I also do my darndest to watch as many games by everyone else (always recorded, of course) during the course of the season. So it is with great confidence that I inform you that Gonzaga will be your 2004 NCAA Tournament champion.

A mid-major will never win it all, you say? Bah, humbug. We all know Gonzaga has left that encomium in the dust long ago. The players on this team have as much NCAA tournament experience as any in the field, and they showed in taking Arizona to the wire last year that they know how to rise to the occasion against a big-time opponent. And outside of Stanford -- who I've predicted will make it to the championship game -- there isn't another team in the country that has no discernible weakness. Seriously, line up the most important categories for NCAA tournament success: great point guard, ability to make 3s, size, depth and experience. Can you think of any other team but Stanford and Gonzaga where you can answer check-check-check-check-check?

The thing I love most about Gonzaga is that with so many players of different types, coach Mark Few has tremendous flexibility to adjust to the contours of a game. He obviously has a great floor leader in Blake Stepp, who knows how to get teammates involved and score when he has to. If Few needs his squad to play a fast pace and utilize the 3, he can put a bevy of scorers on the floor in Tony Skinner, Sean Bankhead and freshman sixth man Adam Morrison. If Few's bunch needs to grind you down with good defense, he can give more minutes to 6-foot-6 sophomore Errol Knight, who can shut down the opponent's best guard by himself. Few has not one but two premier post scorers in Cory Violette and Ronny Turiaf, but he also has 10 more fouls to give with 6-11 senior Richard Fox and 6-9 Sean Mallon coming off the bench. Most teams don't have one player of that size and ability, much less four.

There are a lot of other good teams who can win this thing, of course, but all of them have a fatal flaw that is bound to get exposed, whether it's a scary tendency to go long stretches without scoring (Kentucky, Pitt, Syracuse, Cincinnati), a glaring weakness at the vital position of point guard (Connecticut, Michigan State, Texas, North Carolina State) or a soft lineup inside that will spell doom if the guards aren't making shots (Duke, Saint Joseph's, Oklahoma State).

Gonzaga, on the other hand, can play run-and-gun or slow-and-grind. It can beat you inside and out. And mid-major or not, its time has come. I may be out on a limb here, but I believe it's a sturdy one. So go with the Zags. You'll thank me later.

Bracket Hoop Thoughts

I am going to give the men's basketball committee a one-year reprieve on this ridiculous renaming of the regions, which has only served to confuse everyone. (Contrary to what you might have heard, the change came about not because of the new matchups of the No. 1 seeds, but to make the pod system easier to understand. Didn't work.) Next year, regardless of what the committee does, I'm calling 'em East-West-Midwest-South.

Onward:

St. Louis Region

• As you might notice, I have Kentucky, the overall No. 1, losing in the second round to Washington. Of course, I recognize this is a stretch, but it reflects my strong belief that Kentucky will not win this title. I have tremendous respect for the season the 'Cats put together, but I think the SEC proved to be not nearly as strong as people have been making it out to be. Though I also have Kansas beating Providence, I believe the Friars would be a very difficult matchup for Kentucky because they have the size inside to keep Erik Daniels and Chuck Hayes in check, and they play a ton of zone, which will expose Kentucky's vulnerability from 3-point range.

• The only reason I took Kansas over Providence is because the game will be played in Kansas City, but the Jayhawks have had a terrible time against zone defenses all year. The Friars, however, haven't been to the tourney since '01, and I fear they'll be a little too wide-eyed to pull this one off.

• The one team I think has the best chance to beat Gonzaga is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets perfectly fit the template of a squad that can do damage in the tourney because they have great guard play, starting with sophomore Jarrett Jack, a true rising star. They also have two scorers, Will Bynum and B.J. Elder, who can take over a game. Best of all, their 7-foot Australian center, Luke Schenscher, is a stiff no more. Just ask North Carolina, which allowed Big Luke to grab 17 rebounds when the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets faced off in the ACC tournament.

East Rutherford Region

• Leave it to Billy Packer to turn Saint Joseph's into a team that everybody's rooting for again. Why do I get the feeling that some naysayers want the Hawks to lose in the tournament simply so they can say their regular season was a fraud? Well, Saint Joseph's is going to disappoint them by making it to the regional final. I know the Hawks are not as dangerous if they don't make shots, but, really, who is? Besides, Jameer Nelson and Delonte West are experienced and quick enough to turn to dribble-drives when they need to.

• Manhattan is one of my surprise Sweet Sixteen picks, largely because I think Florida is a very vulnerable first-round opponent. The 12-versus-5 game is where we see the most frequent upsets, and I like that this veteran group of Jaspers has NCAA tournament experience. (Remember, they played Syracuse tough in the first round last year before losing by 11.) Manhattan is more than just Luis Flores, by the way; keep your eye on its effective (albeit undersized) inside duo of Dave Holmes and Peter Mulligan.

• I know the brackets have only been out for two days, but I'm tired of people griping about how Pittsburgh was robbed. First of all, Pitt was obviously never going to be a No. 1 seed, so there's no need to suggest the Panthers' loss to Connecticut dropped them from a 1 to a 3. If Pitt wants better treatment from the committee, then I suggest Jamie Dixon put together a legitimate non-conference schedule next season instead of the farcical one they played this year. And if Pitt is really worthy of a better seed, then the Panthers should prove it by beating Wisconsin. Frankly, I'd love their chances if they weren't in Milwaukee, but I got a feeling Wisconsin will march on.

Atlanta

• I see that several of my SI.com colleagues have picked Oklahoma State to win the whole shebang, and I can certainly see why. I love, love, love the Cowboys. I've got them in the Final Four, but I think they'll have too tough a time with Gonzaga's frontline once they get to San Antonio.

• As I referenced earlier, I also think Cincinnati can be had. The Bearcats play great defense and are very strong up front, but the guards take over in this tournament, and East Tennessee State has a dynamic one in little Tim Smith. If you look at Cincinnati's schedule this year, it's hard to find real quality wins (it lost its only tough non-conference game at Wake Forest). It's also more tempting to pick the Bearcats to be upset in the first round because even if they get by ETSU, I really don't see them beating Illinois.

• It's always dangerous to pick against Duke before the Final Four, but I think the Blue Devils drew a difficult matchup in both Texas and Mississippi State. There are two keys to beating Duke: Shut down J.J. Redick (preferably without double-teaming him), and get Shelden Williams into foul trouble. Both Texas and Mississippi State have the pieces to do that. (Texas' Royal Ivey is the perfect defensive antidote to Redick.) Yes, I know Duke beat Texas by 29 early this season, but the Longhorns (despite having no true point guard on the roster) have improved significantly since then.

Phoenix

• This is clearly the weakest of the four regions, so I'd say Connecticut and Stanford have a pretty direct path to the regional final. Two possible flies in the ointment: Southern Illinois, which stumbled down the stretch but was dominant in the Missouri Valley Conference, and Western Michigan, which was the best team all year in the way-underrated MAC. I have Western Michigan in the Sweet Sixteen.

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• It seems that Grant Wahl and I alternate from being on and off the N.C. State bandwagon (figures a Princeton grad like Grant would back-door me on this one), but now it looks like both of us are officially off for good. The Wolfpack still have a dangerous player in Julius Hodge and you gotta love how well they shoot free throws, but I think the N.C. State demonstrated the last few weeks that it is  not a great defensive team. Plus, Scooter Sherrill's injury scares me, because State's offense is so predicated on making 3s.

• I'm guessing Connecticut is the most popular pick to win this tournament. I think the Huskies, faced with having to play without an injured Emeka Okafor, really grew up in the Big East tournament. But the reality is they beat two mediocre teams in Notre Dame and Villanova without him, and while they were great in the final against Pitt, Okafor's back is still not at full strength and it will be a problem during this tournament. And even with Okafor healthy, I still think Stanford is a better team. The difference will appear at the foul line and at point guard, where if you're looking for a player to take you to the promised land, the Cardinal's Chris Hernandez is the choice over UConn's Taliek Brown.

Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Davis' first book, Equinunk, Tell Your Story: My Return to Summer Camp, is available through Chandler House Press.