
Twenty questionsProminent teams need to address pressing issues as season kicks offPosted: Friday October 15, 2004 11:41AM; Updated: Friday October 15, 2004 11:52AM
Welcome back, Hoop Thinkers. It's been a long, hot summer without you, but thankfully the new season is finally upon us. If the arrival of Midnight Madness brings great hopes, it also brings on some nagging questions, especially to those teams who have legitimate designs on cutting down the nets next April in St. Louis. The games will provide answers soon enough, but in the meantime, let's take a look at the most pressing issues facing 20 prominent programs. Note that these are not necessarily my preseason top-20 teams -- they are listed in alphabetical order. Herewith, my preseason Twenty Questions: Alabama: Is Kennedy Winston ready for his close-up? The only downside to a team making a surprise run to the Elite Eight is the inflated expectations that come the following season. Yes, Alabama was terrific in getting that far, but the Tide was also a late jumper away from losing to Southern Illinois in the first round, they were run out of the gym by Connecticut in the regional final and they have lost their heart and soul, point guard Antoine Pettway. That aside, this team should be back in the tournament if Winston, a lithe 6-foot-6 junior swingman who averaged 17.1 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game, takes another step forward this year. He has the ability to be the SEC's best player. Arizona: Will Salim Stoudamire play nice? Every year, we're told that the lefty sharpshooter has promised to improve his attitude, and then after going long stretches of throwing dagger after dagger at opponents, Stoudamire turns the blade on his team. It happened again last February, when Lute Olson suspended Stoudamire for one game for showing a bad attitude. Now, a one-game suspension isn't that big of a deal, but when a team as talented as Arizona finishes third in the Pac-10 and loses in the first round to Seton Hall, you have to wonder about chemistry. If Stoudamire and his mates can avoid those chemistry problems this season, they could very well end up in St. Louis. Duke: Is Sean Dockery worthy of the mantle? Johnny Dawkins, Quin Snyder, Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciechowski, Jay Williams, Chris Duhon. That's a pretty good lineage of point guards to come through Durham, and it's no coincidence a string of Final Four appearances has also queued up. Now Dockery, a 6-2 junior, takes over a team that has only eight scholarship players after Luol Deng and Shaun Livingston were drafted by the NBA. The Blue Devils will have their usual surfeit of perimeter scorers (J.J. Redick, Daniel Ewing, freshman DeMarcus Nelson), but it will be up to Dockery, who last season averaged just 1.3 assists in 15.4 minutes, to manage the game and create scoring opportunities for his teammates. He might prove capable of doing that, but he hasn't yet. Florida: Will the Gators learn how to be tough? Think back to the Florida team that played in the 2000 NCAA championship game -- Teddy Dupay, Udonis Haslem, Justin Hamilton and Mike Miller. That group had a lot more toughness than has so far been shown by the likes of Anthony Roberson, Matt Walsh and David Lee. The Gators put up plenty of points last season but got very little off their defense. They were also thrown for an unfortunate loop in March when 6-9 guard Christian Drejer bolted suddenly to play pro ball in Spain. Still, just about everybody else returns, and Billy Donovan recruited an exciting talent in 6-11 freshman Joakim Noah. A little more toughness would go a long way in Gainesville. Georgia Tech: Who will provide the glue?
All we hear about these days is who the Yellow Jackets return from their national runner-up team -- Jarrett Jack, B.J. Elder, Will Bynum and Luke Schenscher. What you don't hear about is who they lost -- Marvin Lewis and Clarence Moore. You may not remember them, but Paul Hewitt does, because those two provided the kind of senior leadership that makes the difference between a first-round exit and a spot in the NCAA final. (Lewis, incidentally, was also the team's second-leading scorer.) Replacing their intangibles will be critical. Illinois: Who will be Mr. Post-man? Yes, James Augustine is one of the most skilled big men in the country, but he's always been more comfortable working the high post than the low block. That's not much of a concern when the Illini's guards are hitting outside shots, but considering Dee Brown and Deron Williams combined to shoot 41 percent from the field last season, Illinois would be better-served with Augustine in the post more often. The bigger problem is who works underneath alongside him or in place of him when he goes to the bench. Beyond Nick Smith, a 7-2 center who doesn't exactly thirst for contact, Illinois will need 6-7 sophomore Brian Randle to provide a strong presence. Kansas: Can the Jayhawks stay healthy? This is obviously a question every team faces heading into a new season, but it's particularly relevant to Kansas because they have no other discernible weaknesses. Aaron Miles, Keith Langford and Wayne Simien provide a nucleus that is both talented and experienced (including two trips to the Final Four and one to the Elite Eight). Sophomore J.R. Giddens is a rising star on the wing, and Bill Self has three freshmen big men (most notably C.J Giles, a 6-10 center from Seattle) to rotate alongside Simien. Kansas was one game (an overtime loss at that) from making it to the Final Four last year, even though Giddens, Langford and Simien barely practiced the last month because of various nagging injuries. If KU can avoid the bumps and bruises this time, its path to St. Louis will be clear. Kentucky: Will the kittens play like real Cats? Former UK coach Rick Pitino has often said the second-most popular sport in Kentucky is basketball recruiting, so it's no wonder Cats' fans are feeling like they're already 4-0. The only problem is, Kentucky's Fab Four of 6-1 Rajon Rondo, 6-1 Ramel Bradley, 6-4 Joe Crawford and 6-10 Randolph Morris only think they know how to play hard. But there's hard, and there's Tubby Smith hard, and it usually takes a while for freshmen to learn how to play Tubby hard (especially on defense). Still, if any group of youngsters can spark a team deep into March, it's this one. And don't forget about another newcomer, 6-0 junior Patrick Sparks, a transfer from Western Kentucky who might be the best point guard in the SEC this season. Louisville: Does size really matter? For the last couple of years, we've heard Pitino bemoan the fact he had to play undersized Luke Whitehead and undermuscled Kendall Dartez under the rim. Now, those two are gone, which will allow two 6-8 freshmen -- Juan Diego Palacios and Brian Johnson -- to earn plenty of minutes up front. Plus, the Cards will once again have the services of one of my favorite Glue Guys, 6-7 senior Ellis Myles, a rebounding fool who missed all of last season following knee surgery. This team is flush with perimeter talent and has a national player of the year candidate in Francisco Garcia, but the Cards need to control the boards to give their guards scoring opportunities. Maryland: Do the Terrapins know who they are? Maryland entered the final week of the regular season on the bubble because they couldn't shoot. The Terps won the ACC tournament and came within a bucket of reaching the Sweet 16 because they realized the only way to win was through tenacious defense and superior toughness. I expect Maryland to be a better offensive team this year -- especially if multitalented forward Nik Caner-Medley plays more consistently -- but if they lose the intangible edge they discovered last March, they'll again have trouble making it to the NCAA tournament's second weekend. Michigan State: How soon will Drew Neitzel be ready to take over? It isn't easy for a freshman point guard to master Tom Izzo's intricate, football-style offensive system, but the Spartans' fate this season hinges on how quickly (and how well) Neitzel does just that. The 6-foot, 170-pound guard from Grand Rapids, Mich., brings a lot of intangibles to the position that has been lacking on this team in the recent past. Plus, an established Neitzel would allow senior swingmen Alan Anderson and Chris Hill to play their natural positions on the wing. A return to health by 6-5 junior Maurice Ager should also ease Neitzel's transition to college, but the sooner the frosh grows into the position, the better. North Carolina: Will the real Rashad McCants please stand up?
Pound for pound, the 6-4 junior guard is the most talented player in the country. But too often he's been hampered by a pouty attitude and a lack of patience with (and trust in) his teammates. That was especially evident during the summer, when McCants was cut from USA Basketball's Junior National team for bringing his bad karma to the trials. Is that evidence that McCants is incapable of evincing the maturity needed to bring out the best in his game? Or will it serve as a wake-up call to change his ways? The Tar Heels' chances of winning the national championship hinge on that answer. N.C. State: Will Ilian Evtimov be at full strength? This will be the best team Herb Sendek has had in Raleigh, N.C., but while Julius Hodge is the reigning ACC player of the year, Evtimov, a 6-7 junior forward from Bulgaria, is the real difference-maker. He is a superior passer who looks very comfortable in Sendek's Princeton offense, but he tore an ACL two years ago, and it clearly bothered him for much of last season. Evtimov had arthroscopic surgery on the knee this summer after tweaking it again during a pickup game. The Wolfpack will benefit from a great infusion of talent -- three freshmen plus point guard Tony Bethel, a transfer from Georgetown -- but a healthy Evtimov would be the final piece. Notre Dame: Will the Irish finally get lucky with injuries? This was the best team not to make the NCAA tournament last year, and Notre Dame missed out largely because 6-11 forward Torin Francis was lost in January with a herniated disc in his back. Meanwhile, Chris Thomas, an All-America candidate at point guard, couldn't practice for most of the last month because of chronic pain in his left knee. Francis had surgery in February, Thomas had arthroscopic surgery in the off-season, and now 6-8 sophomore Omari Isreal is back after missing all of last season with an injury. Add Arizona transfer Dennis Latimore, a 6-9 power forward, to the mix, and you can see why Irish eyes are smiling -- as long as the training table stays unoccupied. Oklahoma State: Will the Cowboys' middle be soft again? Quality centers are rare in the college game these days, but the Cowboys ran straight into one at the Final Four last year in Georgia Tech's Schenscher. Their inability to stop him, not to mention three defensive lapses on Bynum's game-winning drive to the hoop, kept OSU out of the national championship game. Though four of their five starters are back, including point guard John Lucas and matchup-from-hell Joey Graham, the biggest question is whether 6-11 juco transfer Aaron Pettway will provide the Pokes with the central dimension they lacked last year. Syracuse: Who will shoot straight (besides you know who)? All right, Gerry McNamara is as good a clutch shooter as there is in the country. Last year, however, that wasn't quite enough to get the Orange over the hump. It's remarkable that Hakim Warrick could average almost 20 points per game without a reliable 3-point shot, but Syracuse needs someone else to stretch defenses to keep McNamara from wearing down the way he did toward the end of last season. (That said, he didn't seem too worn out when he hung 43 points on BYU in the tourney). Warrick's shooting should be improved, and I expect 6-5 sophomore Louie McCroskey to provide a lift, but the primary candidate to provide the second outside threat could be speedy freshman point guard Josh Wright. Washington: Can the Huskies play big dogs as well as underdogs? When Washington started 0-5 in the Pac-10 last year, it's safe to say that even the Huskies themselves couldn't imagine making the NCAA tournament. Yet they did, after winning 15 of their last 18 games, and they were the only team to beat Stanford in the regular season. The Huskies gave UAB a run for its money before bowing out 102-100 in the first round, and now they return 94 percent of their scoring and 95 percent of their rebounding. (Nate Robinson, the diminutive junior point guard, is getting the most pub, but 6-6 junior Brandon Roy is arguably the better player.) In other words, they've gone from hunters to hunted. Heavy is the head, and all that. Wake Forest: Are they ready for some defense? Yes, this team has its top nine players returning and can turn any scoreboard into a pinball machine, but too often last year they were the Emon Eacons -- you know, no "D." Wake's opponents shot 44.7 percent from the floor, the worst clip in the ACC. Part of the Deacs' defensive woes can be attributed to their brisk tempo, but if Wake wants to go from being a nice Sweet 16 to a bona fide title contender, the players need to commit themselves to playing on both ends of the floor. Yes, that means you, Chris Paul. Wisconsin: How can the Badgers replace Devin Harris? The short answer, of course, is they can't. Harris was the best player in the conference last year, and if he had come back to Madison instead of entering the NBA Draft, the Badgers would be a preseason Final Four favorite. Wisconsin is loaded again up front -- Mike Wilkinson returns, Alando Tucker appears to finally be healthy and Brian Butch is done redshirting -- but the list of point guard prospects is, at best, unproven. Boo Wade, a 6-3 junior, has the most experience, and he'll tussle with 6-2 sophomore Kammron Taylor and 6-2 freshman Michael Flowers for playing time. Sharif Chambliss, a 6-1 senior who transferred from Penn State, tore up his knee during practice in March and won't be available until the start of conference play. That's not a promising scouting report for the most important position on the floor. UConn: How important is seniority? The good news for the Huskies is that while they bid farewell to Taliek Brown, Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor, the talent dropoff to this season will be minimal. Replacing the collective experience of those three, however, will be much harder. UConn does not have a single senior in its rotation. That makes it that much more important that 6-11 sophomore Charlie Villanueva has a season that is of All-Big East, maybe even All-America, caliber. With freshman sensation Rudy Gay and Georgia Tech transfer Ed Nelson joining Villanueva and Josh Boone, UConn boasts perhaps the best frontline in the nation, but the point guard position will be a question, especially now that freshman A.J. Price is lost indefinitely following a recent brain hemorrhage.
Sports Illustrated staff writer Seth Davis covers college basketball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com. Davis' first book, Equinunk, Tell Your Story: My Return to Summer Camp, is available through Chandler House Press. |
| ||||||||