Who wants to make the tourney?

Down years in Big Ten, Pac-10 could give committee headaches

Cedric Bozeman and the Bruins are the third-highest Pac-10 team in the RPI, but don't have an impressive resume. AP

Selection Sunday is still more than six weeks away, and that's probably a good thing.

If it were today, the NCAA selection committee would want to think about capping the field at around 56.

A dearth of standout teams in several of the major conferences this year -- and even fewer mid-majors with the resumes to take their place -- could make for quite a few headaches come March 14.

"There are certainly more teams that are in the pool for consideration than any year I've been involved," said Iowa AD Bob Bowlsby, chairman of the selection committee. "I'm sure given some of the upsets and the things that have gone on already this year, there will be many people who are making a case for themselves that they should be in the tournament field where they might have been left out in the past."

If you were to draw up an NCAA bracket today, there would be as few as two teams from the Pac-10, as few as four from the Big Ten.

Keep in mind that since the field expanded to 64 in 1985, the Big Ten has never had fewer than five bids, and the Pac-10's had lfewer than four only once.

How did this happen? The big boys stunk it up in the non-conference season, that's how.

Stunningly, Wisconsin is the only Big Ten team now ranked in the top 40 of the RPI. Purdue, 14-5 with wins over Duke, Wisconsin and Seton Hall, would have little trouble getting in; neither would Indiana at 5-1 in the conference and 41 in the RPI. Illinois, 12-5 and 46th, and Michigan, 12-5 and 57th, though, are no locks.

The situation is even more dire on the West Coast, where 16-0 Stanford and 13-3 Arizona are the only certainties. UCLA, 9-6, is high enough in the RPI (43rd) but its best win is over 8-8 Michigan State, and 9-5 Oregon hasn't beaten anyone in the top 80.

MAILBAG MAILBAG Stewart Mandel will answer questions from SI.com readers each week in his mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

Everyone else is at .500 or worse.

"There's just a lot of mediocrity out there," said Jerry Palm, publisher of CollegeRPI.com. "It's going to be real tough year for the committee."

So if the big boys are struggling, that frees up more room for Cinderella, right?

Not exactly.

Three of the traditionally strongest mid-major conferences, the Missouri Valley, Horizon and MAC, have only three teams among them -- Southern Illinois, Western Michigan and Kent State -- ranked in the RPI top 50. The first-place team in the Mountain West, Air Force, stands just 66th, and in the WAC, only Hawaii ranks higher than 50th.

It doesn't help that several of the most successful mid-major programs recently -- Butler (7-10), Tulsa (6-10), Valparaiso (8-9) -- are having down years.

"None of the smaller conferences are doing anything to take these bids away, Palm said. "Gonzaga is the only non-major school that could get an at-large if it needed one."

Well, who then? Someone's got to get those 34 at-large bids.

That someone, at least as of today, would be almost the entire ACC and SEC.

Presently, eight of the nine ACC teams (all but Clemson) are ranked among the top 40 in the RPI and are at least six games above .500. Together, they've assembled an impressive 29-28 record against top 50 opponents.

In the SEC, seven teams -- Kentucky, Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Vanderbilt and LSU -- look like locks right now, with Auburn and Tennessee on the bubble.

No conference has ever had more than seven NCAA berths in a season.

If those numbers hold up, however, there will be a whole lot of outcry from some of the mid-majors that finish first or second in their conference and get left out in favor of an eighth-place ACC or SEC team.

"Those kind of comparisons are going to be difficult, because there aren't a lot of head-to-head matchups," said Bowlsby. "But you look at an Atlantic-10 member like Richmond going in and beating Kansas at Kansas -- those kind of games bode well for the Atlantic-10 as a conference. Does that game represent its full body of work? No. But it's a really good comparison to help decide whether the Atlantic-10 gets an extra team in or a Big 12 team."

Chances are, most such speculation is moot at this point because much will change over the next six weeks. The ACC and SEC teams will beat up on each other, thus reducing the number of qualified teams. A couple of the currently doubtful Big Ten teams will get hot. A couple of dominant mid-majors will lose in their conference tournaments, thus taking away an at-large bid.

"The temptation is to begin drawing conclusions, and I think that's a real mistake, because lots of things happen in the month of February and the conference tournaments," said Bowlsby, whose committee will draw up its first mock bracket on Monday. "The process is best served by doing some background work and not coming to any conclusions."

As of now, though, expect to see more than a couple mediocre teams slide into the field.

Falcons in flight

8-18. 8-20. 5-23. 7-19. 10-16. 10-16. 8-20. 8-21. 9-19. 12-16.

Those were the records of Air Force's basketball team in the 10 seasons before this one.

As of today, the Falcons stand 14-2, are in the midst of a 12-game winning streak and are sending shockwaves through the Mountain West with a recent sweep of preseason favorites BYU (74-52) and Utah (62-49) to take over sole possession of first place. They're already one win away from reaching their highest total since 1978 and could be in line for their first NCAA tournament appearance since 1962.

Fourth-year coach Joe Scott is a Pete Carril disciple who's installed the famed Princeton offense -- AFA ranks in the top 10 nationally, shooting 50.1 percent as a team -- and has them playing exceptional defense, allowing a national-best 47 points per game and 24.7 percent three-point shooting.

Perhaps because of the Falcons' unglamorous style, or perhaps lack of exposure, they've yet to crack the national rankings, much to Scott's chagrin.

"The way we're playing right now, we're one of the best teams in America," said the 38-year-old. "If any other team in this league was 14-2, had won two [conference] road games and had won 12 in a row, they would be mentioned with the elite in America. Because our team is named Air Force, we're not."

'Horns like the drama

Brandon Mouton's 3-pointer at the buzzer against Texas Tech on Monday night -- forcing overtime, where Texas went on to win 62-61 -- marked the Longhorns' fourth game-saving or game-winning last-second shot in their last seven games.

Against Providence on Jan. 5, P.J. Tucker's drive to the bucket as time expired sealed a 79-77 win Against Nebraska on Jan. 17, it was Royal Ivey hitting a fall-away jumper with 2.4 seconds left to deliver a 63-61 win. And against Missouri three days later, a Brian Boddicker 3-pointer forced overtime, where Texas won 75-69.

How long will the 'Horns' last-minute miracles continue?

"Believe me, I'd prefer it not be this way," said Texas coach Rick Barnes. "But one thing about our team is that we've had different guys all year finding different ways to win."

Worth noting

According to The Commercial Appeal of Memphis, Conference USA will waive the customary exit fees for Louisville, Cincinnati and South Florida when they leave for the Big East in 2005 in exchange for agreeing to play one football and two basketball games a year against C-USA schools through 2010. The league is also relocating its offices from Chicago to Dallas, where commissioner Britton Bankowsky has remained since leaving the Big 12 two years ago. ... Another year, another big-time outside shooter has emerged for Hawaii. Following in the footsteps of Predrag Savovic (20.3 points per game in 2001-02) and Carl English (19.6 in '02-'03), senior Michael Kuebler leads the WAC at 19.5 points per contest while making 47 of 116 3-pointers (40.5 percent). . ... Connecticut star Ben Gordon broke out of a nasty shooting slump in Wednesday night's win over Virginia Tech, hitting four of six 3-pointers and seven of 10 field goals for 22 points. In his five previous games, the guard had made just 32.3 percent of his shots (21-of-65) while averaging 11.4 points. ... With Bracey Wright ice cold, Indiana found an unlikely star Tuesday night. Redshirt freshman Rodrick Wilmont, who entered the game shooting under 30 percent, hit consecutive 3-pointers in the final minute to seal a 63-58 win over rival Purdue.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.