Stay calm, folks

History says No. of undefeateds will shrink, Orange won't be OU-USC

Historically, one off-the-radar team has made the title game -- will Marques Hagans' Cavs fit the bill this season? Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

You know, life just isn't fair. Two people, myself and Zach Braff, graduated from the same college at the same time. Six years later, he's the star of a hit TV show (Scrubs), writer/director of one of the year's best movies (Garden State), executive producer of its top-selling soundtrack and, most important, dating Mandy Moore. Me? I'm spending my Monday night sifting through angry e-mails about Tennessee's poll ranking.

Oh well, at least I can take an occasional break to glance at the Astros-Braves game. No, not for the baseball -- it's hard to take any sport too seriously where the announcer says at one point, "If the Braves lose tonight, Rafael Furcal has to report to jail" -- but for the My Big Fat Obnoxious Boss promos. Genius!

Now, onto a sport worth taking seriously -- but not too seriously. What's become an annual tradition in the BCS era is something I like to call the mid-October "freak out." People wake up one morning, realize the season's already halfway over, see that there are still nine undefeated major-conference teams and ... well, they freak out.

Oh my gosh, what happens if there are more than two undefeated teams at the end of the year? Will they cancel the bowls? Will the president declare a state of emergency? Will the earth fall off its axis?

Deep breaths, everyone -- it's not going to happen.

A little refresher course: In the first six years of the BCS, there has yet to be more than two undefeated major-conference teams at the end of the season. Four of the six years, there haven't even been two.

So, of all the years, why would that change in this one, when, with the possible exception of Oklahoma, there's not a single team out there that looks unbeatable?

Based on lessons learned from recent history, we can reasonably expect the following to happen:

• There will be one Saturday where the pool suddenly gets cut in half. In 2002, there were still seven undefeated teams at the start of November. In one day, Georgia, Virginia Tech, N.C. State and Notre Dame all lost, leaving just Miami, Oklahoma and Ohio State. The next week, the Sooners lost. In 1998, UCLA, Kansas State and Tennessee went into the last weekend all still perfect -- and only the Vols stayed that way. Moral of the story: Things change in a hurry.

• Either Oklahoma or USC, but not both, will lose. The No. 1 and 2 teams in the first BCS standings of the season (which come out next week) have met in the BCS title game ... never, although at least one of the two has ended up reaching the game five straight years. The Sooners themselves have started either No. 1 or No. 2 each of the past four years and reached the title game twice. Now, you might look at the pair's remaining schedules and say to yourself, "Hey, I can't see them losing to any of these teams." Well, did you see Ohio State losing to Michigan State in '98? Penn State to Minnesota in '99? Miami to both Virginia Tech and Tennessee last year? Didn't think so.

• A team people aren't really taking seriously yet will reach the title game. Such was the case for LSU last year, Ohio State the year before, Oklahoma in 2000, Virginia Tech in 1999 and Tennessee in '98. Who would best fit that description this year? Auburn, Virginia, Cal, Wisconsin, Arizona State or Oklahoma State. Not that most of those are all that realistic, but it only takes one.

Now onto the mailbag ...

MAILBAG MAILBAG Stewart Mandel will answer questions from SI.com readers each week in his mailbag. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

It looks to me as if this may be the year for the ultimate BCS nightmare -- more than two undefeated teams, including some from non-BCS conferences. Do you think this looks like a real possibility, and if so, would it be enough to cause the powers-that-be to seriously consider a playoff?
--Chris Orton, Nashville, Tenn.

Well, I made my feelings about the first part abundantly clear. The part about the non-BCS conferences, though -- that could be interesting. Utah and Boise State both have a darn good chance of going undefeated. Neither team would have a compelling case to play for the national title in my opinion -- sorry, but an SEC team that goes 11-1 would have accomplished a whole lot more than an 11-0 Utah team -- but the Utes would at least garner a Fiesta Bowl invite; the Broncos, their lone marquee win coming against 1-4 Oregon State, would not be as fortunate.

The team that has a real chance to throw a wrench in things, though, is Louisville. If the Cardinals were to beat Miami on Thursday -- don't scoff, it's a very real possibility -- then run the table and still not make the title game, all hell would break loose. But would it cause the university presidents to consider a playoff anytime soon? Probably not.

Is this one of the better, if not the best, freshman classes ever?
--Ajay Menon, Herndon, Va.

Without question. Obviously we won't know for four or five years how strong the class is as a whole, but in terms of the number of high-impact freshmen for high-profile teams, we've never seen anything like it. Think about it: It's entirely conceivable that a freshman running back (Adrian Peterson) could lead Oklahoma to the national title, a freshman quarterback (Chad Henne) and running back (Mike Hart) could lead Michigan to the Rose Bowl and a freshman QB (Erik Ainge) could lead Tennessee to the SEC title game.

Meanwhile, the top receiver for the No. 1 team in the country, USC, is a freshman (Dwayne Jarrett), as are the top running backs for both Georgia (Danny Ware) and Notre Dame (Darius Walker) and the top pass-rusher for undefeated Oklahoma State (Nathan Peterson). But I would expect this to be just the beginning of a continuing trend. Thanks to more complicated playbooks and advanced conditioning programs, players are leaving high school better prepared than ever before, and college coaches are more apt than ever before to put them on the field.

With all this talk about Aaron Rodgers' great passing day against USC, I expected some type of notice for Appalachian State QB Richie Williams in a 30-29 victory over No. 2 Furman in Division I-AA on Saturday. He was 40-of-45 passing for 413 yards, but in there were 28 straight completions. Twenty-eight! Tying records is fine, but setting two NCAA records, regardless of division, deserves some kudos.
--Ed Gunther, Boone, N.C.

Agreed. Rodgers' performance was one of the best I've ever seen live, but that's pretty darn incredible.

Why is it that quarterbacks with incredible talent, such as Chris Rix, Brock Berlin and Tim Couch, can't seem to grasp the mental aspect of the game like a Brad Johnson? Geez, is it that difficult to learn a few plays, defensive alignments and still be able to look off your primary receiver when he's covered?
--Jeff, Atlanta

Yes, it is. Spend a little time watching tape with a quarterback or a coach and you come to realize real quickly just how complex the quarterback's job is on any given play. First, he has to read the defense when he gets to the line of scrimmage and, if necessary, check to a different play. Then, once the ball is snapped, he has anywhere from three-to-five seconds to do any or all of the following: go through his progression, pick up the blitz, figure out where the safeties are, avoid the rush, figure out if any of his receivers have adjusted their routes and, of course, throw to the right spot. Some guys, no matter how physically gifted they are, just can't handle it. That's why it's the hardest position to project out of high school.

Now that Tennessee has beaten both Georgia and Florida, are the Vols are a lock to win the SEC East and advance to the conference championship? Despite what the standings indicate, in your opinion are the Vols the best team in the division, or merely the beneficiary of an incredible amount of luck against the Dawgs and Gators?
--Casey McMichaels, Murrayville, Ga.

Heck yeah, they're the best team so far. They beat the two closest competitors, didn't they? But I wouldn't go so far as to proclaim them a lock just yet. The win at Georgia was extremely impressive, but remember, just the week a week earlier they were getting their butts handed to them by Auburn. With a young team, there are going to be lots of ups and downs, and despite a relatively easy remaining schedule, I'd be surprised if the Vols don't lay an egg at least once. That said, they now hold a one-game lead over the Dawgs and a two-game lead over the Gators (because of the tiebreaker), one of whom will lose once more when the two meet in Jacksonville. It would take a lot to screw that up.

Looks like you have to eat your words about a Big Ten title for Minnesota. Is the schedule set in Purdue's favor, or can Wisconsin or Michigan upset the Boilermakers at home and possibly tie for Big Ten champs?
-- Yoosuf Picard, Westlake, La.

I do? Take a look at Minnesota's remaining schedule. I'd hardly say it's eliminated from contention. OK, so I got a little overzealous with that pick last week. I should have stuck with my first instinct -- back when I made that now-famous Big Ten prediction in August, I projected the Gophers to go 7-1 in the conference. The one loss? Michigan. That part's gone to plan. What I didn't anticipate, though, was the unexpected rise of Purdue and Wisconsin. It's going to be a very interesting race. I would be shocked if anyone comes out of it 8-0 in the conference. I still see Michigan losing twice -- at Purdue and at Ohio State -- so Saturday's Boilers-Badgers victor becomes the overwhelming team to beat.

There are 117 schools in Division I-A football. Must you always write about USC and Oklahoma in every column? Do you realize how many people you annoy by always writing about two teams who already get enough ink and cyberspace?
-- Angel Guilloty, Lancaster, Calif.

Absolutely. In fact, every time I pen something about the Trojans or Sooners, I break into a devilish laugh, rub my hands together and say, "Boy, will the Iowa State fans be annoyed today," or, "Can't wait to see the look on those Illinois fans' faces." Tell you what, I'll stop writing about USC and Oklahoma just as soon as A) one of them loses, or B) political writers find a way to start covering the election without writing about Kerry and Bush.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.