Make room on the carousel

Florida was first, but eight more teams may change coaches in offseason

Southern Cal offensive coordinator Norm Chow will be on more than one school's wish list after the season. Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

With Florida's firing of Ron Zook on Monday, college football's annual coaching carousel is open for business -- albeit, a little bit earlier than usual. It's pretty rare that a school a fires its coach in October; rarer still, when it's a school whose job is among the most attractive in the entire sport.

This year, however, Florida may be just one of numerous high-profile openings. Washington, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Clemson and -- dare we say it -- Penn State, all with more than their share of history and tradition, could be looking for new coaches come November or December. And that doesn't include any unexpected openings that may arise should, say, a Bob Stoops (Oklahoma) or Jeff Tedford (Cal) leaves for Florida, or LSU's Nick Saban gets lured to the NFL.

About 15 to 25 Division I-A teams change coaches each year, but the number usually includes a lot of perennial bottom feeders. How often do so many coveted positions come open in the same year? "Usually not often," said former Big Eight commissioner Chuck Neinas, whose consulting firm many schools employ for their coaching searches. "It's too early to tell [how many will come open]. Certainly, the decision at Florida will gain some headlines, but in most instances, there's still a few games left."

Excluding Florida, which already has been discussed ad nauseum this week, and UNLV, where John Robinson already has announced his retirement, here's a look at some possible stops on the carousel this winter, ranked in order of how likely they'll come open, their relative attractiveness to candidates and whom the schools might be apt to pursue.

No. 1: Washington

It's been two years of upheaval at U-Dub, which now has a new chancellor (Mark Emmert, formerly of LSU), new athletic director (Todd Turner, formerly of Vanderbilt and N.C. State) and a football program that's hit rock bottom. The Huskies are 1-6 and headed toward their worst season since 1973 in this, their second year under hastily appointed head coach Keith Gilbertson. Such misery isn't easily accepted at a school whose 14 Rose Bowl appearances are second only to USC among Pac-10 teams. There's a strong sentiment among Washington faithful to hire someone from the "Husky family," but the most logical choice, Missouri's Gary Pinkel (a member of Don James' 1991 national title staff), isn't exactly tearing things up in Columbia. It's more likely Turner would target a hot commodity with ties to the West Coast, such as Boise State's Dan Hawkins or USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow.

No. 2 Illinois

Winning the 2001 Big Ten title bought Ron Turner time despite his team slipping to 5-7 in '02 and 1-11 in '03, but a third straight losing season (the Illini are 2-6, working on a 13-game losing streak in the Big Ten) will most likely spell the eighth-year coach's demise. Illini AD Ron Guenther won't necessarily be able to attract a big name, but there's enough to like about the job -- Big Ten affiliation, a talent-rich state -- to entice a promising coordinator (Oklahoma's Chuck Long or Brent Venables?) or mid-major head coach (downstate Southern Illinois' Jerry Kill, a Dennis Franchione protégé, led the Salukis to their first playoff berth in 20 years last season and is 7-1 this year). One potential longshot: Utah's Urban Meyer, a Midwesterner who's more likely to hold out for an eventual Notre Dame opening. One potential wildcard: Rick Neuheisel, who's available and qualified.

No. 3 Pittsburgh

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It may seem strange that the Panthers, at 5-2, would appear so high on this list. But the Pittsburgh media, still stuck in the Dan Marino/Tony Dorsett era, have been calling for coach Walt Harris' head since last year's disappointing 7-5 finish and shifted into high gear when the Panthers struggled to open this season. Harris' agent, Bob LaMonte, even called out the school for its handling of his client, never the sign of a happy future together. Ironically, Harris' team could still win the Big East and secure a BCS berth. Anything much less, though, and he could be a goner. The first name on everyone's tongue will be Pitt alumn Dave Wannstedt, whose days with the Miami Dolphins appear numbered, but there's no guarantee he'll be interested. The program has tradition and wonderful new facilities but faces an uphill climb returning to national respectability while playing in the depleted Big East.

No. 4 Syracuse

By most conventional standards, one would say the Orange are in need of a change. Following 15 straight winning seasons, the 'Cuse has gone 4-8 and 6-6 the past two years and are 3-4 so far in this one. AD Jake Crouthamel is extremely loyal to Paul Pasqualoni, though, and there's always the chance a strong finish could buy the 14-year head coach another season. If not, a popular name will be Connecticut's Randy Edsall, a former Syracuse assistant, which is ironic considering the Orange's season may hinge on beating the upstart Huskies this weekend. Otherwise, this is not exactly the world's most attractive job, especially to anyone with an aversion to domes or cold weather. The school would have to be willing to pony up some big dollars.

No. 5 North Carolina

The Tar Heels have improved from the past two years' 2-10 and 3-9 disasters, notching nice victories over Georgia Tech and N.C. State, but they've also been blown out by the best teams they've faced (Florida State, Utah and Louisville). It's not inconceivable they could win three of their last four to become bowl eligible, but anything less and fourth-year coach John Bunting is toast. The new ACC makes it even more challenging for the Tar Heels to return to respectability, but a potential candidate may look at the league and the school's substantial resources as a positive. It's been rumored for some time the Tar Heels might go after Steve Spurrier, but it's unlikely the Ball Coach would pass on his alma mater, then head to UNC. Miami defensive coordinator Randy Shannon, whose team comes to town this weekend, might be an option. So, too, would Neuheisel or fellow unemployed ex-coach Frank Solich.

No. 6 Kentucky

Former Oregon and NFL coach Rich Brooks' two-year tenure has been nothing short of brutal -- 5-14, including a loss to Ohio earlier this year -- yet this job may only come open if it's by Brooks' own volition (he denied a report this week that he would quit at the end of the season). AD Mitch Barnhart issued a statement this week saying, "We've got the coach we want. We're not in the market for a coach," and blamed Brooks' struggles on NCAA-imposed sanctions before his arrival. If he does go, the leader in the clubhouse will be Louisville defensive coordinator Mike Cassity, who's had an immediate impact on the Cardinals this season after getting fired, ironically, by Illinois.

No. 7 Penn State

Just to be clear, Joe Paterno is not getting fired. Not in a million years. But, with his team (2-5) headed toward its fourth losing season in five years and its offense again one of the worst in the country, perhaps the 77-year-old Joe Pa will finally come to the realization after this season that the best way to save the program he cherishes so dearly is to step aside. (If he doesn't, he's still got four years left on his contract). If and when that day comes, there's absolutely no predicting what direction the school would head -- it hasn't had to do this in 40 years. Would Paterno get to pick his successor? Would the school be willing to hire an outsider? If so, the names you'll be most likely to hear are: Iowa's Kirk Ferentz, a Pennsylvania native; Cleveland Browns coach Butch Davis, who rebuilt another powerhouse at Miami; and any "hot" name you can think of (Tedford, Hawkins, Meyer, Louisville's Bobby Petrino). Save perhaps Florida, this would probably be the most coveted job out there. Normally, trying to replace a legend is an unwinnable battle (see Zook, Ron), but at this point Penn Staters are too starved for victories not to embrace the next coach.

8. Clemson

There's still plenty of time for Tommy Bowden to turn things around last season (he certainly did last year), but the Tigers' 3-4 record is an extreme disappointment considering their lofty preseason expectations. Problem is, it would be beyond expensive for the school to make a change. Bowden just signed a new contract through 2010 that includes a $4 million buyout if he's terminated with five or more years remaining. Not that Clemson's deep-pocketed boosters couldn't round up enough change if they felt so compelled, but it would probably take something radical -- like the Tigers losing the rest of their games -- for him to lose his job this year.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.