J.D. Drew has made five trips to the disabled list in the past four seasons. Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Lou Piniella, while manager of the Seattle Mariners, once said during the winter meetings that, "If you're ever in a room with the Atlanta Braves and they start talking about trading you pitching, run out of the room right away.'' The Braves know pitching. The idea that they'd be willing to part with a pitcher, especially a young one, should set off alarms and sirens for any possible trading partner.

John Schuerholz has traded away 54 pitchers in his 13 years as general manager of the Braves. His track record for years was splendid. Just about none of the young arms he let go came back to haunt him. Most turned out to be overhyped prospects, such as Donnie Elliott, who went in the Fred McGriff trade, Chris Seelbach (for Alejandro Pena), Robbie Bell (Bret Boone), Ruben Quevedo (Jose Hernandez), Jason Shiell (Reggie Sanders), Bruce Chen (Andy Ashby), Luis Rivera (B.J. Surhoff) and Damian Moss (Russ Ortiz). Moreover, Atlanta left David Nied unprotected in the 1993 expansion draft and the Rockies picked him first, with almost no return on the selection.

Schuerholz's more recent ledger, however, is more spotty, starting with a mid-season deal in 1996 in which he parted with Jason Schmidt to get Denny Neagle from Pittsburgh. Neagle did win 20 games in 1997, but in Schmidt the Braves gave up a 23-year-old right-hander with a live arm who had made only 13 starts for Atlanta. The Braves misjudged Schmidt. They thought the youthful, guitar-playing free spirit was intimidated by the responsibility of joining older veterans Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz in the rotation and gave up on him. Schmidt was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season for San Francisco. He was the only pitcher to allow fewer than one runner by hit or walk per inning.

Now, you could cobble together the start of a fine staff with the arms Schuerholz has traded away: Schmidt, Kevin Millwood (a salary dump when Maddux took Atlanta's arbitration offer), Odalis Perez (27-22 the past two years for Los Angeles), Alan Embree, Chad Fox, Joe Borowski, Kent Mercker and Tim Spooneybarger.

But Schuerholz's reputation as a shrewd trader when it comes to pitching has never been on the line more than it is now because of the deal he cut with St. Louis last month. He gave up 22-year-old Adam Wainwright, a 6-foot-8 right-hander who was the organization's best pitching prospect, and Jason Marquis, who is still only 24 and has a mid-90s fastball for outfielder J.D. Drew and utilityman Eli Marrero.

"Wainwright was a key for us,'' Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty said. "We would not have made this deal without him.'' Wainwright is expected to start the season in Class AAA, but could be in the Cardinals' rotation before the year is out.

Marquis is penciled into a rotation spot and, like Schmidt, may eventually blossom away from Atlanta. He always seemed to be a square peg in the round hole of pitching coach Leo Mazzone's pitching culture. The Braves thought he didn't think enough on the mound and too often relied on velocity. For four years Marquis bounced among Atlanta's rotation, the bullpen and Class AAA. Despite never pitching in relief in the minors, the Braves gave him only 38 starts in the four seasons he appeared in the big leagues with them. Marquis was 12-15 with a 4.21 ERA in those starts.

"The key for us was getting a legitimate right fielder after we lost Gary [Sheffield],'' Schuerholz said. "That was our most essential order of business of the winter -- that and signing John Thomson.''

Schuerholz stuck his neck out for Drew, a guy who has never appeared in more than 135 games in a major league season or had 75 RBIs and is 28 years old --- or two years older than Carlos Beltran. Drew also is represented by Scott Boras and can leave as a free agent after the season. What concerns scouts about Drew, in addition to his being injury prone, is that he doesn't have strong baseball instincts.

"We think we have an All-Star-caliber right fielder,'' Schuerholz said.

Drew better be the real deal if the Braves are to hold off the Phillies for another NL East title. No player is more crucial to Atlanta's success than Drew. The Braves lost 115 homers and 397 RBIs when they did not re-sign Sheffield, catcher Javy Lopez, third baseman Vinny Castilla and first baseman Robert Fick. Mark DeRosa and Adam LaRoche may fill the infield corners adequately, but Drew and Johnny Estrada are major steps down from Sheffield and Lopez -- and that's if Drew manages to play a full season.

"It's unfair to ask J.D. to put up the same numbers Gary did,'' Schuerholz said. "But we think with another year under the belts of Marcus Giles and Rafael Furcal they'll be better, Estrada was the all-star Triple-A catcher for two years and a lot of people think DeRosa will provide solid offense given a chance to be an everyday player.''

Thomson is also a step down from Maddux, leaving the pitching staff in worse shape, too. The Braves need a fifth starter behind Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Thomson and Horatio Ramirez. (Will that rotation scare anybody in a playoff series?) And in the bullpen, Atlanta is counting on the continued resurgence of Jaret Wright, who may even get a crack at joining the rotation.

"One of the luxuries of this year is we can think outside the box as we put our team together,'' Schuerholz said, though a rotation in flux seems more a liability than a luxury.

This is what happens when, as Schuerholz said, "We were very aware of the new guidelines of our budget.'' Atlanta's payroll figures to be cut from $95 million to $80 million. The Braves probably will not even enter the season as favorites to win their division. If they are to keep intact their streak of 12 straight division titles, Schuerholz must be right about putting his confidence in Drew.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.