East Coast, West Coast Team G AB R H HR RBI AVG Dodgers 726 2707 443 896 177 563 .331 Mets 760 2733 455 837 187 551 .306

Mike Piazza may be the greatest story of baseball's modern amateur draft era. In 1988, the Dodgers selected him, essentially as a favor to Tommy Lasorda, a family friend, in the 62nd round. One thousand three hundred eighty-nine players already had been picked.

Last week the late-round pick became the all-time leader in home runs hit as a catcher. His 352nd homer broke a tie with Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk. Even without the record, Piazza (who has hit 364 home runs overall) already had established himself as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He is the greatest hitting catcher of all time.

Only one question remains regarding his place in Cooperstown: what cap will be pictured on his plaque? While Piazza was overtaking Fisk this month he also reached another milestone with almost no notice. He now has taken more at-bats in a Mets uniform than he did with the Dodgers. His career has been split almost exactly in half (not including his Hitchcockian cameo with Florida in 1998 on his way between the two teams). Has he been better as a Met or as a Dodger? (see chart, below right.) You make the call.

It's very close. Piazza has more home runs, runs, games and at-bats as a Met, but more hits and RBI and a much better batting average as a Dodger. Piazza has one more season after 2004 remaining on his Mets contract. He will be paid $15 million next year. After that, assuming he remains in good health, he probably will be more branded as a Met than a Dodger. This is one case in which the Hall, which has veto power over cap selections, probably will just let the player choose and leave it at that.

Though Piazza may join Tom Seaver as the only Mets Hall of Famers, it's difficult to imagine Piazza staying with New York beyond 2005. He will be 37 years old after next season and most likely headed for the retirement halfway house known as the American League. He seems better suited to DH than first base.

Piazza already is established as being in the decline phase of his career. His OPS (.854 entering this week), for instance, would represent a fourth straight year of a decline. A career .328 hitter entering the 2001 season, he has hit only .289 since then, a 39-point decline. Piazza is still a very dangerous hitter, valuable hitter, especially as a catcher, but he's no longer a franchise player.

Piazza always has been a class act who respects the history of the game and understands how professionals should carry themselves. This season, for instance, he has worked hard at embracing the data-intensive system of pitching coach Rick Peterson and helped implement it with a largely veteran pitching staff. Piazza is also an inspiration for all those players on any level who may not immediately catch the fancy of scouts, coaches and managers. He took the less traveled road to Cooperstown.

Indian Summer

You heard it here first: the Indians will win more than 68 games this year and may be the sleeper team in the American League.

It's 89 percent guaranteed, anyway. How could I be that sure? It's the SPF factor, which has nothing to do with sun block but has been remarkably useful in identifying breakthrough teams. SPF is the Sleeper Predictor Formula, first developed (though not yet so named) by the Elias Sports Bureau in the 1980s and something I've adopted as a fun, quirky, highly accurate tool ever since the wild-card format was introduced in 1995.

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Put it this way: if you paid attention to the SPF last year you would not have been surprised by the "sleeper" Royals, who improved by 21 games, and by the Cubs, who also improved by 21 games. The Kansas City and Chicago were the only teams selected by SPF last year as breakout teams.

Here's how it works. Take all the teams who finished five or more games below .500 in one-run games last season. In 2003, there were six: the Rockies, Braves, Cardinals, Mets, Blue Jays and Indians. Now check out how they played in spring training this year. If the team played more than 100 percentage points better in the spring than it did in the regular season last year, you've got a sleeper team. Only one team met the criteria: Cleveland, which played .563 ball in spring training after .420 ball in the 2003 regular season.

Why would the SPF work? The theory holds that one-run records are often the residue of pure luck, so they can easily turn around from year to year. And though spring training records tend to be meaningless, a big improvement may portend a better season. When Elias ran the SPF from 1980 through 1988, it identified 21 teams as possible sleepers. Every one of them improved. Since I dusted off the SPF in 1985, 12 of the 16 teams identified as possible sleepers also improved their record, including the Royals and Cubs last year. Add it up and you get a 33-for-37 record, an impressive 89 percent success rate.

So bank on the Indians this year. They were an AL-worst 15-25 in one-run games last year. (OK, Danys Baez may have had something to do with that, and not just luck.) SPF teams typically improve by about a dozen games. So far Cleveland, entering play Tuesday, is playing .419 baseball, almost exactly the same rate as last season. Fear not, however. The Indians have the SPF on their side.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.