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Redbirds will romp

Don't expect postseason meltdown from baseball's best ballclub

Posted: Wednesday September 29, 2004 2:14PM; Updated: Wednesday September 29, 2004 2:14PM
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Pride of St. Louis
The Cardinals have baseball's best record and most powerful lineup, but are they adequately armed for October?
By Daniel G. Habib
Verducci: Five pressing questions
Verducci: Mets want Sweet Lou

There is a conventional wisdom building that the Cardinals are the 2001 Mariners: the best regular season team in baseball that doesn't scare anybody in October because it lacks dominant starters.

The Mariners won 116 regular-season games only to lose the ALCS in five games to the Yankees. I don't agree with that thinking. St. Louis has better starting pitching than people give them credit for, and it has a power-hitting offense that makes it more dangerous than those Mariners.

The Cardinals look very capable in October because they are such a solid, well-balanced club, even if they lack that one stud on the hill. Read on for more on the Cardinals' chances.

I find it odd that St. Louis ranks second in the National League in ERA at 3.72, and yet critics keep saying the Cardinals don't have the starting pitching to win it all. They obviously have the lineup and defense. Will the pitching keep them from hoisting the trophy for the first time since 1982, and how much will Chris Carpenter's injury hurt their chances?
 -- John Letvin, Houston

I'm not one of the people who think the Cardinals don't have enough pitching to win it all. St. Louis was the best team I saw all year. The Cards' defense helps make their pitching what it is. Carpenter's biceps injury is definitely a blow. You could have made the argument that he would have been their Game 1 starter, and now he might be out of the first round. But the upside for St. Louis is it hasn't relied on one guy to carry the team all season, so it's not a huge psychological blow. I still like St. Louis as the team to beat in the NL.

If Ichiro breaks George Sisler's single-season hits record, where will this feat rank compared to other amazing accomplishments, such as the single-season home run record, Joe DiMaggio's hitting streak, etc.?
 -- Ben Field, Boca Raton, Fla.

Not even close. Don't get me wrong, Ichiro is an amazing hitter and it's a great feat, especially considering the record has held up this long. But how many people knew Sisler held the record up until the past two months? The home run mark and DiMaggio's streak are iconic American records. As far as degree of difficulty, I'd also rank it behind those other records as well.

What does it say about the Braves that they already have hung up the 2004 division title flag in their stadium? Don't most teams wait until after the playoffs to celebrate any pennants or titles won? It is as if they are admitting the division title is all they are going to win. They have done this the past couple of years and failed to get out of the first round. Maybe they are jinxing themselves.
 -- Jake Cooper, Atlanta

Good observation. I don't know about jinxes; I don't believe in that stuff. But it does make you wonder about the mindset. I'd rather see teams act like the Yankees, who don't bother to celebrate clinching a playoff spot, because the goal is to win the World Series.

Never mind Bonds vs. Ruth. What about Josh Gibson? He had a lifetime average above .350, hit 84 home runs in one season and nearly 800 for his career. I believe he is still the only man to hit a ball out of Yankee Stadium. I know it's apples vs. oranges, but can any comparisons be made?
 -- John Menninga, Grand Rapids, Mich.

Unfortunately, comparisons can't be made, at least on a strict statistical basis, because Gibson was never allowed to compete with major league players. Given his prowess in the Negro Leagues, there's no doubt he would have been a major star in the big leagues. I'm glad you mentioned Gibson, because we should make it a point to remember such great players who never got their proper due.

If you are building the ideal pitcher in a lab and can implant the stuff of any current hurler, whom would you pick? I watch Darren Dreifort (when he's available) and think, "Geez, if this guy could just grow a head and stay healthy, he'd get everybody out!"
 -- Bob Cook, Boulder, Colo.

I'll grant you that Dreifort can look filthy at times because he throws so hard and has such great movement. But the guy I'd pick is Mark Prior, assuming he's at full health. I don't know that I've seen anybody with more premium weapons than Pedro Martinez in his prime.

Why is the Giants organization not given more flak for their half-hearted commitment to winning? I know as a Dodgers fan I'm not exactly in the best position to comment on this matter as my team has stunk for quite some time. However, the Giants have a middle-of-the-pack payroll in a big market, and while Bonds has been advancing in age, they have done nothing to improve their team. If anything, this team is much worse than the one that went to the World Series in 2002.
 -- Mike Norgaard, Pasadena, Calif.

Half-hearted? I don't see that at all. Remember, the Giants paid for their own stadium and face annual debt payments of more than $20 million. That's a pretty good commitment to start out with. They gave Bonds a $90 million contract that eats up a large portion of the payroll, but he's been worth it. They've been hurt by the $9 million they're paying Robb Nen. And they've developing a nucleus of good young pitchers in Noah Lowry, Jerome Williams, Merkin Valdez, Matt Cain, Brad Hennessy and Jesse Foppert, and at the same time they're not afraid to trade young players and first-round picks to get better now. Are the Giants less committed to winning than the New York Mets? Merely spending money isn't the whole story.

You're making too much over Pedro's "daddy" comments. That's something you say when you're feeling sorry for yourself, a temporary thing with Pedro. He's still a tough competitor who has pitched much better than the 6-17 record the Sox have in games he's started against the Yankees. He's as good or better than anyone the Yanks can throw against him and he still scares me. I can see Pedro pitching like Pedro and the Red Sox reaching the World Series this year, but I don't see the Yankees getting out of the first round.
 -- David J. Kahn, New York

Hey, I'd still feel good giving Pedro the ball against the Yankees or anybody else, especially in the postseason. (But I'd make sure to get it away from him after the seventh.) The daddy comments were shocking. Even if he felt sorry for himself temporarily, such an admission by an elite athlete is rare. I think that spoke to the depths of his frustration. But I agree that it probably means nothing in October. The guys is still one of the best pitchers in the game, though you'd better use the bullpen to pick him up next time.

Which teams do you foresee being big spenders in the free-agent market this offseason?
 -- Robert Rodriguez, Dallas

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Keep an eye on the Dodgers, who'll need to come up with some major glue to keep Adrian Beltre. But the Dodgers should spend more even if they do retain Beltre because a) they should see a jump in attendance next season, assuming a playoff appearance this year, and b) they have $29 million coming off the payroll after 2005 in two players alone, Shawn Green and Darren Dreifort. They can backload the contracts of players they sign this winter. Also, the Blue Jays have money with Carlos Delgado's $18.5 million-a-year deal expiring, the Phillies might have $29 million if Kevin Millwood, Eric Milton and Billy Wagner walk, the Mariners will have to spend money or risk disenfranchising what's been a loyal fan base, and the Tigers and Orioles will be serious players for a second straight winter.

Oh, wait. This just in ... the Yankees and Red Sox will spend money. They'll bid against each other yet again, most visibly with the Dodgers and Orioles for Carlos Beltran, the best available free agent.

Do you have a good explanation for what happens to players such as Jody Gerut, Joe Crede or Angel Berroa who have such a great rookie year and then fall off the table? Does the league catch up to them?
 -- George Koppe, Kansas City, Mo.

The "sophomore jinx" is one of those theories that gets perpetuated because we look for it. Truth is, players of all ages and experience go through down seasons. I do agree, though, that a player's weaknesses get exposed the more they play. Teams, for instance, initially are more apt to challenge young hitters in the strike zone. Once they get a large enough sample to know what a hitter does and does not hit, they attack the weaknesses. I think that's especially true these days because of the mass amount of information and video used in the game. Don't overlook the mental aspect, too. For a lot of second-year players, it's about how they react to failure after being so accustomed to success. Just another reason why Cliche No. 16 in the Ballplayer's Official Book of Clichés is, "It's a game of adjustments."

Sports Illustrated senior writer Tom Verducci covers baseball for the magazine and is a regular contributor to SI.com.

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