Using spot starts judiciously can make a difference
Posted: Saturday July 23, 2005 4:10PM; Updated: Saturday July 23, 2005 4:11PM
At 8-4 with a 3.94 ERA, John Lackey is on pace for his best season since he was a rookie in 2002.
Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images
By David Young, Special to SI.com
"We ask that in respect to your neighbors, please refrain from using your lightsabers during all panel presentations." -- Public Service Announcement at Comic-Con in San Diego
As we slide into the second half of the season, strategies change for using your pitching staff. If you are in a league with daily rosters or that has minimum or maximum IP (or GS) requirements, you are probably well acquainted with the idea of the Spot Start, or picking up a SP off the waiver wire for a particular start. In a regular league, spot starters are usually employed later in the season and for the goal of getting a win, and sometimes strikeouts. In head-to-head leagues, they are used every day for the same purpose. A spot starter can be used to improve ratios, but as we all know, the further you get into the season, the less impact a single start will make on ERA and WHIP.
To follow this program you need to have someone you don't mind losing to the waiver wire process. Usually a team owner will designate a pitching spot to revolving starters, or sometimes you find an opening when someone on your team goes to the DL. Regardless, you are hiring a mercenary, but of course, a win is tricky to predict and for the most part you're flying blind. Until now, that is.
Felix Puga writes the Waiver Wire Starters column for TalentedMrRoto.com, where he lists the most attractive spot starters for the next day, breaks them down by NL/AL and fantasy league depth, and gives a data-backed prediction of the pitcher's performance. In addition, he gives a "Five-Day Forecast" every Sunday for Monday thru Friday's starters. Felix joined me from his home in Spain to discuss his methodology and whom he likes and dislikes for the rest of the year.
Felix's intro to fantasy baseball
DY: You're from Panama and live in Spain. How did you start playing fantasy baseball?
FP: I've been playing since 1997. I actually started on cnnsi.com with the salary cap games. I then started a league with some friends about seven years ago in Panama.
DY: So I'm guessing everyone tried to draft [Panamanian] Mariano Rivera?
FP: Yeah. The first time he was traded in my league it was heavily lopsided, something like Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa for him. Once we got into the dealing we were hooked.
DY: Not something you want to say out loud about Panamanians
FP: LOL
DY: Kidding, of course.
Felix's methodology for picking spot starters
DY: You sent me your list of pitchers you love for the second half and it broke down to two Angels, two Dodgers, one Brewer, two Nats, one Pirate and one Oriole. Seems like L.A. is spot start central. Does the pitcher's team need to be very good, or is it immaterial whom they play for?
FP: The Angels have a great lineup and an amazing bullpen. The Dodgers have a ballpark that has the opposite effect of Coors Field. It's the ballpark that made Chan Ho Park a $15 million a year starter and Jose Lima an active player.
DY: So Mets, Dodgers, Marlins and other teams with pitcher-friendly parks might be more apt to create spot starters?
FP: I usually factor that in when the starter has the home field advantage. Like it could make Scott Olsen an attractive option but won't magically turn Jon Lieber into a slam dunk spotter. In the case of the Dodgers anything goes because they're also an inept offense.
DY: Sure. So I notice the list is also heavy NL. Are NL guys more attractive because of less offense in the league (no DH) and more pitcher's parks?
FP: Anytime you avoid the AL East and AL West that's a step forward. Also it's easier for callups to face a pitcher rather than a DH. The NL West is interesting as San Diego, Los Angeles and Colorado on the road have been kind to spotters this year. I gotta say the Diamondbacks and Giants on the road aren't too menacing, either.
DY: So you make a list of attractive spot starters for the next day's slate of games. To make that list you look at the pitcher, the park, the opposing pitcher and the opposing team?
FP: Right. I also look at the team's current streak, the LH/RH and home/road splits by both teams, and every single time I check the pitcher's game log. That gives a great view of how the pitcher's been doing recently.
DY: God bless you, Felix. I used to spend hours doing that. Every day.
FP: You're welcome.
DY: So when you suggest a guy, is it just for the win, or do the other stats matter as well?
FP: I look for the QS: at least 6 IP, a reasonable number of hits and walks allowed, and 3 ER or less. Someone than can get you K has preference of course. A win is just too unpredictable. Horacio Ramirez has eight wins and John Patterson has four, but their other numbers would indicate otherwise.