By Ray Flowers, Special to SI.com

(Stats as of Tuesday)

Brian Roberts isn't close to matching his first-half All-Star performance. John Iacono/SI

I was just offered Jon Garland, Johan Santana and Brian Roberts for Mark Prior and Chase Utley. The only thing holding me back is if there is some outside information that I am missing as this seems too good to be true. Your thoughts?
--Jeremy, Nebraska

I don't know of any injuries to any of the players that are involved in this trade. Let's analyze the guys involved and see with what we come up with.

Santana was phenomenal last year, and he has pitched pretty darn well this season even if his win total isn't what most of us hoped for (10-6, 3.68 ERA, 163 K, 1.07 WHIP). He's still a top-five pitcher in 5x5 formats because of that WHIP and all those strikeouts. Garland has exceeded everyone's predictions (16-5, 3.29 ERA, 72 K, 1.14 WHIP), however, I'm still not sold on him. In his last seven starts he is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA, 19 K and a 1.31 WHIP in 45 IP, decent numbers sure, but that 1.31 WHIP scares me a bit (don't forget his career WHIP is still 1.39). Also, despite all his success, Garland has only 72 K's, or four less than Orioles closer B.J. Ryan who has pitched 103 2/3 fewer innings!

Roberts has been a great fantasy find this year (.325-17-59-67-20), but people are becoming too focused on his recent struggles (he is hitting .246-4-15-15-4 in his last 142 AB). Roberts has already set career highs in homers and RBIs, and will, barring a catastrophic collapse, also set career highs in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS and hits. For a guy who was a 15th-round draft pick, how could you complain?

Prior has rebounded strongly from his injury concerns to produce solid numbers (7-4, 3.65 ERA, 123 K, 1.11 WHIP). Those stats are skewed a bit by three poor starts in which he has given up 6, 6 and 8 earned runs (his ERA in his other 15 starts is 2.36). Also of note: Prior's season ERA/WHIP are almost identical to Santana's, and Prior averages more K's per 9 IP than Santana, 9.8 to 9.4 (including a season-high 11 last time out).

Utley has been the revelation at 2B that many of the pundits predicted (.307-16-66-53-11). In opposition to the recent performance of Roberts, Utley has continued to produce big numbers during July and August (.302-5-28-19-4). He's also hit higher .300 with an OPS of over .920 each of the past three months, and don't forget those 11 steals, they sure have come in handy.

This trade is basically one in which your trading partner is playing the percentages. Is Roberts the .350-plus hitter he was the first three months or the .275 hitter of the past 1,500 at-bats prior to 2005? Your trading partner is betting that he is the .275 version and that Utley will outperform him the rest of the way. Your trading partner also realizes that Garland already has a career high in wins, has never had an ERA under 4.51 or a WHIP under 1.37 in a full season, so Garland is basically a throw-in here (amazing for a 16-game winner, I'll admit). Your trading partner is also betting that Prior will outperform Santana the rest of the year, and that is probably just under an even-money bet at this point.

This is the classic "what have you done for me lately" trade. It's not the numbers that the player has produced that matter, it's how they will produce for you in the future that matters most. In the end I would not do this trade. It's not the lopsided deal you originally thought it was based on the players' recent performances and their outlook going forward.