Bowl Breakdown: New Orleans Arkansas State (6-5) vs. Southern Miss (6-5) Dec. 20, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Cajun Field (31,000) Lafayette, La.

SI.com's Cory McCartney analyzes the matchup.

Breaking down Arkansas State

QB Dustin Almond and Southern Mississippi won the New Orleans Bowl last year, beating North Texas 31-10. AP

Talk about being happy to be here. Arkansas State is making its first postseason appearance since the 1987 Division I-AA quarterfinals, thanks to running back Antonio Warren, whose game-winning touchdown with 30 seconds remaining led the Indians to a 31-24 victory over North Texas in the regular-season finale and earned them a share of the Sun Belt title.

Warren, who ran for 1,046 yards despite missing two games with an ankle injury, is the backbone of an Indians' rushing attack that averaged 199.9 yards a game. Quarterback Nick Noce, who threw for 1,839 yards and 11 touchdowns, gives the offense balance, but Arkansas State has been "end-zone challenged" to say the least. In a four-game stretch this season, it scored three, seven, nine and 10 points -- and managed to win two of those contests. That level of output won't get it done in this bowl.

Breaking down Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles have one of the country's best quarterbacks nobody's ever heard of in Dustin Almond, who threw for 2,607 yards and 21 touchdowns this season. Almond had five receivers with 300-plus receiving yards, led by Shawn Nelson's 419. The running game, though, has been non-existent. Southern Miss was held under 100 yards six times, including a nine-yard outing against Alabama and 24 yards against Houston.

Southern Miss has a pair of monsters at linebacker in Conference USA Defense Player of the Year Kevin Coley, who is fourth in the nation with 145 tackles, and his twin brother Trevis (99 tackles). But Southern Miss has succeeded by being opportunistic. It is tied for sixth in the nation in turnover margin (plus-1.18) and is second in fumbles recovered (17). Plus, the Eagles have converted turnovers into points, scoring 127 off of takeaways.

Final Analysis

Arkansas State qualified for its first bowl since the '70 Pecan Bowl, which is a nice accomplishment. But it won't keep this one close. Southern Miss isn't exactly explosive, but if Almond is on, he will be able to pick the Indians apart. However, the real star of this one may be Eagles running back Larry Thomas. He's been held in check the past two games with 54 yards on 22 carries, but against an Arkansas State run defense that's giving up 186.7 yards a game, he just might have a career night.

The Pick: Southern Miss 42, Arkansas State 14.