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Headed for a Four-peat?

Posted: Monday November 28, 2005 10:25AM; Updated: Monday November 28, 2005 12:18PM
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By Arash Markazi

While most of the country wonders whether USC can win an unprecedented third consecutive national championship in January, there is a college mathematics professor in Tennessee who wonders if USC has what it takes to win a fourth straight national championship -- at least by his ratings system.

According to Herman Matthews, who created the Mathews Grid Ratings, Carson Palmer and the rest of the '02 Trojans should have won the national championship.
According to Herman Matthews, who created the Mathews Grid Ratings, Carson Palmer and the rest of the '02 Trojans should have won the national championship.
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Herman Matthews, who teaches mathematics at Lincoln Memorial University in Harrogate, Tenn., has been doing his Mathews Grid Ratings since 1966 and besides being recognized as one of the few organizations worthy of determining a college football national champion by the NCAA's website, Matthews has provided his rankings for the national Scripps Howard News Service for the last 18 years.

After the 2002 season, despite the fact that Ohio State (14-0) won the BCS championship by defeating Miami in the Fiesta Bowl, Matthews' ratings had USC as the No. 1 team with an 11-2 record. Matthews actually wasn't alone in his assessment. The Sagarin Ratings, developed by mathematician Jeff Sagarin, and the Dunkel Index devised by Dick Dunkel Sr. in 1929, also had the Trojans No. 1 after beating No. 3 Iowa in the Orange Bowl. It was the first time since 1997, when Nebraska and Tennessee split the national championship, that three or more recognized organizations had another team at No. 1.

Dunkel and Sagarin switched their allegiances to LSU in 2003 when USC won the AP national championship, but Matthews once again had the Trojans as the top team that year as he did again in 2004, making this season's run at the title a potential Four-Peat in Matthews' eyes.

"They certainly are in the running," said Matthews, who is teaching four classes this semester after stepping down as chairman of the math and computer science department last year. "It's troubling, however, that some of their games this season seemed to be won with a good amount of luck."

It's that "good amount of luck" and handful of narrow victories for the Trojans that has Texas currently ahead of USC in the Matthews Grid Ratings as well as most of the BCS' computer rankings. Although Matthews says a USC win over Texas in the Rose Bowl would obviously change all that.

Although Matthews believes the 2002 Trojans, led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Carson Palmer on offense and Troy Polamalu on defense, weren't as good as the most recent USC teams, he says the '02 Trojans would have probably won a "recognized" national championship if there had been a playoff system as USC looked unbeatable by the end of that season. "It would have been quite likely," Matthews said. "Particularly since both Dunkel and Sagarin agree. I have great respect for their work as well."

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