Uruguay must beat its biggest rival to reach the Cup

	Mario Regueiro (center) and Uruguay have scored 22 goals in 17 games of qualifying, but they can't afford a loss to Argentina. AP
	South America Standings Team GP W D L GF GA Pts Argentina* 17 10 4 3 29 16 34 Brazil* 17 8 7 2 32 17 31 Paraguay* 17 8 4 5 23 22 28 Ecuador* 17 8 3 6 23 19 27 Uruguay 17 5 7 5 22 28 22 Colombia 17 5 6 6 23 16 21 Chile 17 5 6 6 18 22 21 Venezuela 17 5 3 9 20 25 18 Peru 17 3 6 8 16 27 15 Bolivia 17 4 2 11 19 33 14 * Already qualified. Fifth-place team must play a two-leg playoff with Australia to qualify.

By Gregory Sica, Special to SI.com

The final round of the marathon that has been South American World Cup qualifying concludes on Wednesday night with Uruguay entertaining its biggest rival, Argentina, at the historic Centenario Stadium in Montevideo. That's the same venue where the two countries met back in the 1930 World Cup final, where the home side defeated its River Plate neighbor, 4-2.

It's only a qualifier this time, but the stakes are as high, especially for the Uruguayans. They're facing a must-win match to assure themselves of the fifth and final spot in South America, which would send them into a playoff against Oceania champions Australia (a team they destroyed in the same spot four years ago).

Argentina, on the other hand, comes into the clásico on top of the South American group with 34 points, having qualified for soccer's biggest tournament way back in June. But the Argentines insist that they will come to Montevideo focused on taking home the three points, and winning the group in style.

But is that how it will go down? Back in the 2002 World Cup qualifying campaign, the teams met in an almost identical situation in the final round. Uruguay needed at least a point, which it picked up without much effort in a draw.

What is of great concern to both Colombia and Chile -- the two teams that still have a mathematical chance of overtaking Uruguay and qualifying for the playoff -- is how seriously Argentina will take the match. Four years ago it was widely speculated that the Uruguayans and Argentines arranged the tie, a result that was enough to send Uruguay through, while the Colombians were knocked out by goal differential.

Although the two matches were played simultaneously, what caught the attention of most observers was that Paraguay, which had already qualified for the World Cup, was trailing 4-0 at home against Colombia, and the away side needed one more goal to advance to the playoff instead of Uruguay. That dubious final round left FIFA concerned about possible match-fixing, but for some reason, the case wasn't investigated further.

Four years later, we have yet to see how seriously Argentina, Paraguay and Ecuador will take their final qualifiers. For fans, it's a different story. A recent poll conducted by the Buenos Aires newspaper La Nación revealed that 52 percent of the 52,000 polled would prefer Argentina to win and pick up the three points. No surprise there. But more than 41 percent preferred their country to lose against Uruguay so their geographic neighbor can qualify for the playoff instead of Colombia or Chile.