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Burning Questions

Teams, players to watch heading into the postseason

Posted: Thursday September 29, 2005 12:19PM; Updated: Monday October 3, 2005 5:15PM
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Chris Carpenter
The Cardinals will have Chris Carpenter for the playoffs this time around, but will he be at his best?
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With the postseason upon us, here are some burning questions and answers to ponder ...

Are the Cards the overwhelming NL favorite like they were last year?
No, because suddenly Chris Carpenter, who has logged the most innings by a Cardinals pitcher since 1989, doesn't look like much of an upgrade from any of the pitchers St. Louis had in the 2004 postseason. In the sixth inning of his start on Wednesday night against the Astros, Carpenter balled his right hand into a fist, looked down at the ground and screamed after allowing a two-run home run to Lance Berkman. Carpenter, who hasn't reached the seventh inning in four straight starts and has a 9.14 ERA during that span, knows he has been subpar, even bad, over the last four weeks.

Carpenter likely will win the NL Cy Young, but the Cardinals should be very concerned about the way he's pitching. Carpenter's health is a serious question mark: the affable, mellow New England native, who's had a career that's been cursed by injury, has logged a career high in innings pitched, and not since 2001 had the right-hander reached the 200-innings mark in a season. His control is off; his curveball has lost its bite. Is he gasssed? Quite possibly. Without Scott Rolen and Larry Walker hurting, the Cardinals are a mediocre offensive team, and without Carpenter at his best, they are a ripe for an early playoff exit.

Will it be déjà vu all over again in Atlanta?
The sensational Baby Braves make Atlanta's lineup deeper than in past years, but the fate of John Schuerholz's latest masterpiece rests with ace John Smoltz. Smoltz is the kind of pitcher who can single-handedly dominate a playoff series, but he's been bothered by a sore shoulder and missed his scheduled start on Wednesday. He's the lGame 1 starter for Atlanta, and without him in top form, the Braves -- who have the worst bullpen of all the NL playoff contenders -- won't survive the first round.

Who are the White Sox's best options in the starting rotation?
If you said Cy Young contenders Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland, you're wrong. Since the start of August no AL pitcher has been better than Jose Contreras, whose split finger has been unhittable over the last two months. And rookie phenom Brandon McCarthy (1.59 ERA in six starts since Aug. 30) has been better than Buehrle and Garland over the last month. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen is making a mistake for not tapping McCarthy for a start in the Division Series.

Of all the playoff contenders, who has the best 1-2-3 starters?
We'll let a National League GM take this one: "It's not even close. Give me Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte. No one has three guys like that, or even a pair of pitchers that match up with those guys.

Will Brad Lidge take over the postseason like he did in 2004?
Rivera aside, no closer is more dominant than Houston's stopper, but Lidge looked hittable and possibly even a bit fatigued (after his huge 2004 workload) earlier this season. That's no longer the case. Since the All-Star break Lidge has been awesome, converting 19 saves in 19 opportunities with a 1.82 ERA and a rate of 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Most important of all: the effectiveness of Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls and Russ Springer has enabled Lidge to throw far fewer innings than he did last season. For those reasons, Lidge is primed for another dominant October.

Are the NL West champs this bad?
"If Barry Bonds comes back just a few weeks earlier, the Padres don't win that division," says an NL advance scout of the Padres. "Those people saying they are dangerous in the playoffs are way off. They might win one game because of [Jake] Peavy, but beyond him they've got no starters that I trust, and they've got absolutely no big hitters in their lineup. There's nothing I've seen that says this team will suddenly transform in the playoffs."

The Angels have this year's probable Cy Young winner (Bartolo Colon), the league's toughest bullpen, and Vladimir Guerrero. Is that enough to run the table in the AL?
The Angels have Vlad, but the lineup isn't nearly the fearsome machine it was in '02. The Angels need another hitter beyond Vlad to get hot, and Garret Anderson, who's having a disappointing season, must be that guy.

Who will be the teams to beat in the NL and AL?
With four All-Star pitchers (Oswalt, Pettitte, Clemens and Lidge) in peak form, the Astros are the favorite in the National League. The AL, however, is as wide open as tryouts for The Apprentice. Stay tuned.

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