Wide receiver Randy Moss makes his debut with the Raiders tonight. Travis Lindquist/Getty Images
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After a schedule full of Monday Night duds in 2004, ABC opens its final season of primetime football with a game even casual fans must tune in for. The NFL kicks off with their annual rock concert/game and both are filled with intrigue. The Rolling Stones and Green Day will perform, along with Kanye West, who promises not to repeat his nationally televised anti-George Bush rant. (ABC isn't taking any chances with its 10-second delay.) On the field, the Patriots begin their championship defense against the Raiders and new star Randy Moss.

If you look at last year's records -- New England was 14-2, while Oakland was 5-11 -- this game would appear to be another laugher for the Monday Night Football crew. But Moss makes the Raiders instantly relevant, and they made other key improvements on both sides of the ball. The Patriots appear to more vulnerable than ever, as they try to adjust to life without coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel and defensive stalwarts Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson and Ty Law.

The Raiders Win If ...

... Al Davis is still a genius and his offseason changes actually work. If Jerry Porter (hamstring) plays tonight, Oakland will have a huge height advantage with its top-two receivers. Moss will draw plenty of attention, leaving big-play opportunities for Porter and slot receiver Ronald Curry. And quarterback Kerry Collins showed in the preseason he can still throw the longball. New Oakland running back Lamont Jordan has seen a lot of the Patriots, but mostly from the bench when he was with the Jets, since coach Herm Edwards didn't trust him in big divisional games. But the burly Jordan will have a big game against a Patriots linebacking corps that had trouble stopping the run in the preseason.

The Raiders' biggest defensive problem has been its inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. They picked up defensive end Derrick Burgess from the Eagles, who they hope will help create some pressure from the outside. Oakland didn't do much to fix its shaky defensive backfield, so it can't give Patriots quarterback Tom Brady time to pass.

The Patriots Win If ...

... they take away the Raiders' offensive strengths and avoid mistakes on offense. It's a familiar formula for the Patriots, who face a serious transition after all the offseason changes. But under Bill Belichick they've been able weather turmoil as well as any team in recent NFL history. New England will ride running back Corey Dillon all season long and its rushing attack will give the Pats a big advantage in time of possession.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will play without offensive coordinator Charlie Weis for the first time on Thursday. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Defensively, Moss provides an interesting challenge for new coordinator Eric Mangini. New England isn't afraid to single-cover a superstar receiver -- see Terrell Owens in the Super Bowl -- but Moss will catch at least one bomb if the Pats follow that route. Whatever Belichick and his staff come up with, it will probably leave Raiders coach Norv Turner scratching his head early Friday morning.

Key Stat

The Patriots have won 20 straight home games. The Raiders have dropped 16 of 18 on the road. Can this really be a close game?

The Outcome

This is not a gambling column and the only wagering advice I could give is bet against this author consistently. But the 7 1/2-point spread seems small for a 5-11 team visiting the 14-2 Super Bowl champions. The Randy Moss Kool Aid is a popular drink in Vegas right now. But even though Al Davis complained about his schedule and this matchup in particular, September is the right time to visit Foxboro. The foliage is lovely and the Pats have struggled early in the season during their Super Bowl run. Belichick is 2-3 in season openers with the Pats and they should have lost last year against the Colts, but an Edgerrin James fumble saved a win.

I am tempted to pick Oakland to win, since its receivers will have a huge advantage over New England's corners. But Belichick will scheme the Raiders to death and at some point Collins will throw a big pick and give the game to the champs.

New England 27, Oakland 24