Can Pats maintain mastery of Colts despite injuries?

	Colts RB Edgerrin James entered Week 9 leading the NFL with 801 rushing yards. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
	Perloff's Primetime Picks Week Prediction Outcome 1 N.E. 27, Oak. 24 N.E. wins 30-20 1 Atl. 23, Phi. 20 Atl. wins 14-10 2 N.O. 24, NYG 21 NYG wins 27-10 2 Dal. 23, Wash. 19 Wash. wins 14-13 3 Den. 31, K.C. 28 Den. wins 30-10 4 G.B. 28, Car. 24 Car. wins 32-29 5 Pit. 30, S.D. 21 Pit. wins 24-22 6 Ind. 42, StL. 21 Ind. wins 38-20 7 Atl. 31, NYJ. 16 Atl. wins 27-14 8 Pit. 34, Bal. 13 Pit. wins 20-19 Perloff's MNF Record: 7-3

Although you wouldn't know it from the standings, this might be the most important regular-season game of the year. The Colts are 7-0 and have a comfortable lead in the AFC South and the 4-3 Patriots are still basically in control of a watered-down AFC East. But this contest will set the tone for the rest of the season for these two Super Bowl contenders. Indy has to get the New England monkey off its back, and the Pats, despite a rash of injuries, need to prove they can still play like champions.

The Colts Win If ...

... they forget history and play their game. On paper, Indianapolis has an advantage at practically every position. For example: Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. Pats rookie OL Nick Kaczur; Colts WR Marvin Harrison vs. Pats CB Duane Starks; Colts LB Cato June vs. Pats RB Corey Dillon. Anyone who questions the last mismatch hasn't watched Indy and New England this year. June has been a Tasmanian devil for the Colts, while Dillon is running slow and tentative.

In addition to Freeney and June, Indianapolis has gotten major contributions from DE Robert Mathis (tied for the NFL lead with eight sacks), DT Corey Simon, MLB Gary Brackett and emerging star safety Bob Sanders. Coach Tony Dungy has transformed the defense into a Cover Two machine that is similar to the one he had in Tampa Bay.

Offensively, Indianapolis has let James do most of the heavy lifting. The seven-year veteran leads the NFL with 801 rushing yards and seems to thrive no matter whom the opponent is -- unless it's New England. James ran for 39 yards on 14 carries against the Patriots in last year's AFC playoffs and he's had some of his career lows against the defending Super Bowl champs. When James struggles, life becomes difficult for quarterback Peyton Manning, who already has enough problems against a Bill Belichick defense.

The Patriots Win If ...

... they stick to the formula that has won them three Super Bowls -- smart, ball-control offense combined with a turnover-hungry defense. New England's offense has become vertical this season, with Tom Brady throwing longer and more often then ever before. While this offense displays Brady's immense talent, it doesn't help the Pats win. Brady is attempting over 35 passes a game, which is a higher pace than all but one of his five seasons as a starter. The one year Brady threw more often, 2002, the Patriots were 9-7 and missed the playoffs.