Indy will hit a road block in its quest for perfection

	With Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup, the Steelers have what it takes to halt to the Colts. Fred Vuich/SI
	Perloff's Primetime Picks Week Prediction Outcome 1 N.E. 27, Oak. 24 N.E. wins, 30-20 1 Atl. 23, Phi. 20 Atl. wins, 14-10 2 N.O. 24, NYG 21 NYG win, 27-10 2 Dal. 23, Wash. 19 Wash. wins, 14-13 3 Den. 31, K.C. 28 Den. wins, 30-10 4 G.B. 28, Car. 24 Car. wins, 32-29 5 Pit. 30, S.D. 21 Pit. wins, 24-22 6 Ind. 42, StL. 21 Ind. wins, 38-20 7 Atl. 31, NYJ. 16 Atl. wins, 27-14 8 Pit. 34, Bal. 13 Pit. wins, 20-19 9 Ind. 31, N.E. 27 Ind. wins, 40-21 10 Phi. 27, Dal. 21 Dal. wins, 21-20 11 G.B. 30, Min. 20 Min. wins, 20-17 Perloff's MNF Record: 8-5

The 10-0 Colts appear to have the right stuff to become the first undefeated team since the 1972 Dolphins. So have other teams over the last three decades, and they've all come up short. This is one of the toughest tests Indy faces for the rest of the season. The 7-3 Steelers have struggled without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, but Big Ben is back and Pittsburgh appears to be perfectly designed to challenge the Colts.

The Steelers faced two undefeated teams midway through the 2004 season -- the 6-0 Patriots and 7-0 Eagles -- and beat them both handily. It's hard to tell how good Pittsburgh is this season with Roethlisberger having played just six games. Still, the Steelers have a strong running game -- although not as dominant as last year -- and a formidable defense, but their passing offense has been nonexistent without Big Ben.

The Steelers Win If ...

... they punch the Colts in the mouth early in the game and don't let up. Indianapolis has improved on defense and doesn't seem to shy away from physical play anymore. But the Steelers can be very tough -- just ask the Bengals. Cincy thought it was the new team to beat in the AFC North, before Pittsburgh manhandled its divisional foe in a 27-13 Week 7 win.

Two of the Steelers' three losses were without Roethlisberger. Big Ben doesn't pass much, but when he does, he doesn't make mistakes. Roethlisberger has been intercepted only twice in 130 attempts this season and has the NFL's best passer rating (112.4). And he's extremely mobile for his size, which will help against Indy's relentless pass rush. The question is, will Roethlisberger be able to move well less than a month after having knee surgery.

The problems at quarterback have also hurt the running game. Pittsburgh is averaging 130.2 yards per contest this season, compared to 154 yards a game last year. The Colts haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher yet this season, although they did allow 164 total rushing yards against the Bengals last week. Indy appears to be vulnerable up the middle, so expect the Steelers to stick with the run and try to control the clock.

The Colts Win If ...

... they control the ball. The Steelers want to establish their running game and keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines. Last week, the Colts returned to last year's shoot-'em-out style in a 45-37 win over the Bengals as Manning threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns. With 20 TD passes on the season, Manning is nowhere near the pace of last year's record 49 touchdowns, but he still ranks near the top of the league with a 104.6 passer rating.

Indy's Edgerrin James is the NFL's second-leading rusher, but Pittsburgh hasn't allowed a back to break 100 yards in 22 games. Peter Read Miller/SI

Indy has relied on running back Edgerrin James to do the bulk of the work this season. James is second in the NFL with 1,116 rushing yards and already has 11 TDs (his career high is 13 TDs). Look for coach Tony Dungy to try to establish a running attack, even though that can be difficult against the Steelers, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 22 games.

Indy's defense fell back to earth against Cincy last week. The cornerbacks got burned several times and the middle of the defensive line wore down. Former Eagle Corey Simon still doesn't appear to be in game shape at tackle, and you can bet the Steelers are going to run the ball in his direction all night.

Key Stat

The Colts are the ninth team since 1970 to open a season 10-0. Five of those teams have won the Super Bowl. The last 10-0 team not to win it all was the 49ers in 1990, who ran into a Giants team in the playoffs that also started out 10-0 that year.

The Outcome

Forget the perfect season. Even if the Colts survive this game, they have trips to Jacksonville and Seattle and a home game against the Chargers in their way. And Dungy has said he'll rest his starters at the end of the season. I'm not sure all this talk of an undefeated season is helping Indianapolis. Perhaps the best thing for the Colts would be to lose a game. And why not tonight? Pittsburgh has the running attack and the defense to stop Indianapolis. In some ways, the Steelers are like the Patriots team that has dominated the Colts in recent years. They both have strong tacklers, a solid running game and a quarterback who doesn't make many mistakes. Members of the '72 Dolphins can start chilling the champagne. The Colts' perfect run ends tonight in Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh 29, Indianapolis 24