Posted: Friday February 4, 2005 12:02PM; Updated: Friday February 4, 2005 12:34PM
Tom Brady and the Patriots beat the Colts and Steelers handily in this year's AFC playoffs.
Harry How/Getty Images
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- As the undisputed leader of the Patriots Super Bowl bandwagon these last couple of years -- at least as far as good ol' SI.com is concerned -- I was asked by the razor-sharp editors back in the home office if I'd be willing to come up with 10 reasons why New England will win, and win big, on Sunday against Philadelphia.
I told them, I do believe I can.
And what's more, I won't even have to strain myself to do so. The only tough part about the assignment was deciding the 10 best reasons to like New England's chances of cruising to a third Super Bowl title in the past four years.
Without further adieu:
10. These Patriots know how to put teams away -- Unlike their first two Super Bowl championship teams, the 2004 Patriots aren't squeaking by in the playoffs. In 2001, New England won its three postseason games by an average margin of just 4.3 points, the lowest by any Super Bowl champ. In 2003, that number rose to 5.3 points, but it was still the second fewest among Super Bowl champions.
This year, with their 20-3 divisional-round defeat of the Colts and that 41-27 dismantling of the Steelers in the AFC title game, the Patriots are winning in the playoffs by a whopping 15.5 points per game. That's Blowout City, folks. New England has yet to trail in either of its playoff games, and held a lead for exactly 97 of the 120 minutes of game clock.
Want to hear more about the Patriots' front-running ways? According to Stats Inc., they played with the lead 68.4 percent of the time in the 2004 regular season, the highest figure in the NFL. Pittsburgh was next at 63.8, followed by Philly at 59.1. New England has scored first in 25 of its past 26 games including playoffs, owns a 54-27 first-quarter scoring margin in its past 11 games and hasn't allowed an opponent an opening-drive touchdown in its past 36 games.
9. New England simply doesn't lose in February -- Other than Pro Bowls, only two games in NFL history have been played in February, and New England won them both. The first was the Patriots' Feb. 3, 2002 upset of St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI in New Orleans, and then there was last year's Feb. 1 win over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII in Houston.
The Eagles? They've never even seen a football field in February. In fact, until this year, they had a whole bunch of trouble making it past mid-January. When it comes to the year's shortest month, the Patriots have the league's longest track record of success.
8. The Patriots protect the football at all costs -- Under Bill Belichick, New England doesn't beat itself in the big games. Never has, never will. The Patriots have yet to commit a turnover in the playoffs this season, and they have a seven-game postseason streak in which they finish either even or ahead in terms of turnovers.
This season, New England is plus-7 in turnovers in the playoffs, and that number jumps to plus-16 (21 takeaways, five giveaways) in the Patriots' entire eight-game postseason run in the Belichick era. In just conference title games and Super Bowls, the Pats under Belichick are plus-14 in turnovers (17 takeaways, three giveaways).
The last time New England lost out in terms of turnover ratio in the playoffs was the snow game, in the 2001 divisional round against visiting Oakland. The Patriots were minus-1 that day against the Raiders, and needed overtime (and the controversial tuck-rule call) to beat Oakland 16-13.
7. The Patriots can beat you in so many ways -- New England throttled the Colts in the divisional round with a power running game and long, clock-killing drives. Then, when the Steelers were expecting the same treatment in the AFC title game, the Patriots went out and jumped on them with big passing plays.
Against the Colts, the Pats held the ball for 37:43, ran for 210 yards, had three drives of at least 11 plays, with just two gains of 20-plus yards and 8.0 yards per completion.
But at Pittsburgh, it was a completely different story. New England had the ball for just 28:29, or less than half the game, rushed for a modest 126 yards and had no drives of 11 plays or longer. But the Patriots picked up a gaudy 14.8 yards per completion and had four gains of at least 20 yards.
The Patriots weren't fazed by the Colts top-scoring offense (32.6 ppg) or the Steelers' top-ranked defense in terms of both yards and points allowed (15.7). The Eagles ranked somewhere behind both Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in both categories.
6. Tom Brady can handle the blitz -- Philadelphia's calling card on defense under talented coordinator Jim Johnson has been the blitz. Johnson loves to send bodies from all different positions, and rattle the quarterback into either making mistakes or losing yardage.
But blitzing New England QB Tom Brady in the playoffs historically has been a losing proposition. This postseason, Brady has completed 73.3 percent of his passes (11 of 15) when blitzed, with one touchdown, no interceptions and a 115.4 quarterback rating.
In his eight-game playoff career, no one has ever consistently gotten to Brady via the blitz. According to Stats Inc., Brady has five touchdown passes with no interceptions and a 107.3 rating when blitzed in the playoffs. If the Eagles do choose to blitz Brady, chances are the cool-as-a-cucumber quarterback will make them pay with big plays in the passing game.