Ben Roethlisberger was 17-of-30 for 181 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Steelers' win over the Jets. Brian Bahr/Getty Images

If you read this, you won't have to watch the championship games. Here's what's going to happen:

PATRIOTS AT STEELERS

Everyone expects the Steelers to pound the ball with Jerome Bettis, and they will. For maybe a series. Or a couple of plays. They'll do it just to show it, then they'll get down to business and bring in not three, but four wideouts. The third man is Antwaan Randle El, and we all know he can play. The fourth is Lee Mays, and he's just coming into his own as a threat.

What they want to do is make the Patriots go deep into their roster and find a sixth back. Troy Brown is New England's nickel back, and even if he is a wide receiver by trade, he's an athlete and a competitor and he won't back down to any receiver, as he proved against the Colts' Brandon Stokley last weekend.

But when the Steelers go with their fourth wideout, the Patriots will have to dip way down and use either Earthwind Moreland, a cornerback; Dexter Reid, a safety; recently acquired ex-Steelers corner Hank Poteat; or linebacker Don Davis, who's strictly a zone player, a LB filling in at safety. Whoever it is, the Patriots would be happy if he remained on the bench and didn't have to cover anybody.

They didn't face that problem last game, because the Colts didn't have a serious four-wide package. But the Steelers do. Mays is for real. Of course the Patriots could solve the problem with one of their complicated zone packages, with linebackers popping up all over the place and guys like Roman Phifer or Roosevelt Colvin taking a deeper drop.

"Whatever it is," says Jets' offensive coordinator Paul Hackett, who faces the Pats twice a year, "it'll be something no one's ever seen before. That's what they do to you. You prepare all week, and then it's almost wasted effort because when the game starts, you're looking at something they've never shown."

The Steelers are a running team, but against the Jets they were a late running team, doing most of the damage when the fatigue factor kicked in. If they can get a lead or keep the Patriots defense on the field, rushing the passer, they'll come back and pound them late, with Bettis and then Duce Staley. That would be the ideal situation for them.

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The X-factor is Ben Roethlisberger. We don't know if his subpar performance against the Jets was a rookie's inability to read a complicated defense or a bad thumb. He was shaking it from time to time, and it seemed to cause him problems. No one talks about this, of course, and it might be just a temporary thing. Or it might be a concern.

Roethlisberger doesn't do a great job looking people off his receivers, but he can get to his progression fairly quickly if he has time. The Patriots have lots of pass rushers ... Willie McGinest, Colvin, Jarvis Green (if Richard Seymour can't go), Mike Vrabel, who was a pass-rushing end at Ohio State, Rodney Harrison ... and who knows what direction they'll be coming from? But Pittsburgh's pass-blocking scheme is very sound as well.

I think the Stelers have Roethlisberger working early to those four wideouts, trying to get something on the board right away, kind of whistling to get his courage up. And once you get past the wide receivers, Big Ben's has very few targets. The last Steelers tight end to catch a pass probably was Bennie Cunningham ... no, wait a minute ... Jay Riemersma caught a few, but now he's on IR. Neither back is a receiving threat, although the third man, Verron Haynes, might occasionally grab one or two. And they hardly ever throw to the fullback. All this is merely an annoyance. The real action will come from the wideouts, and I get the feeling I've mentioned this already.

As far as the other side of the game -- New England's attack against, statistically -- the top defense in the league, I think the Patriots will move the ball, but don't ask me how. I wouldn't even begin to guess what they'll do offensively to open the contest. Charlie Weis is like Mike Martz in that he defies prediction. He could run Corey Dillon eight times in a row or Tom Brady could throw 15 straight. There's no figuring.

I think that when Brady throws, it'll be crossing patterns underneath, mixed with an occasional deep shot to keep the corners nervous. I don't think New England will try to run much on Pittsburgh's 3-4 base defense. I think the Patriots will do their running out of a multiple wideout set, when Pittsburgh in its four-man rush, with linebackers Joey Porter and Clark Haggans manning the wings. And I think Brady will throw screens and swing passes to his backs against that set-up, just as the Jets did, with some success.

As far as the first Steelers-Patriots game on Halloween, you can throw it out the window (but not while I'm walking underneath it, please). Without Dillon, who was hurt, the Patriots just gave up on the running. But then the worst thing of all happened to them. Their offensive line got ripped.

Left tackle Matt Light got knocked on the head, so RT Brandon Gorin had to go to the left side, which he'd never played, and Gorin was starting only because the regular RT, Tom Ashworth, had been lost the week before. Which meant that a guard had to go to tackle and a guy who hadn't played had to fill in at guard, and you just don't get away with that against the Steelers' rush. It was brutal. Haggans and Porter had a field day, coming from the outside, and ... let's just forget about it, OK?

I think that this time with the running game as the centerpiece of Weis' offense, the Patriots will be able to put up more points than the Steelers can match.

MY PICK: Patriots 24, Steelers 17.

FALCONS AT EAGLES

Warrick Dunn ran for 142 yards and two TDs against the Rams in the divisional playoffs. Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Both teams beat bad defenses last week, thus providing an inflated view of their attacks. Atlanta's O-line is coached by Alex Gibbs, who likes small, mobile players -- such as the ones he had in Denver. And he likes them cutting on the back side, going for the knees, making themselves unpopular. The Falcons fit the definition, physically, although they haven't yet made a reputation for doing the nasties. Their target Sunday will be Eagles MLB Jeremiah Trotter.

Trotter's a swaggering, bullying type of linebacker, one of the few middle men, along with the Patriots' Ted Johnson and Baltimore's Edge Hartwell --  who can take on a blocker and stone him. He had a field day against the sluggish Vikings linemen last week, but now he'll be facing people who will get to him ... quick, talented guys such as tackle Kevin Shafffer, guard Kynan Forney and center Todd McClure, a shrimp at 286 but a player very much in the mold of Gibbs' great center with the Broncos, Tom Nalen.

Why am I dwelling so much on Trotter? Because the Eagles couldn't stop the run before he became a starter in their ninth game, and few people could run on them thereafter. But I think that the Falcons, with the No. 1 running game in the NFL, will get their yards.

Warrick Dunn is a terrific back, just right for this quick-striking line. T.J. Duckett can be effective coming in and hammering once the defense is starting to tire. Vick was devastating on his bootlegs last week, although I doubt the Eagles' scheme will be as unsound against it as the Rams were.

I see 150 yards for the Falcons on the ground, maybe more, if they can keep the score close for a while. And probably less than that through the air, because, you see, they have no wideouts. I doubt that their entire corps of wide receivers will catch half a dozen passes on the best secondary in football. Their tight end, Alge Crumpler, might do that all by himself.

I see Michael Vick running for around 50 yards against a secondary that will come up quickly when he starts motoring, and if he can pull up and deliver the ball with accuracy, then the Falcons will be in good shape. But that's been an erratic part of his game.

Allen Rossum killed the Rams with his punt returns -- a record 152 yards worth -- but he was running them back against the worst special teams in the league. The Eagles can cover punts, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rossum gets something going on a kickoff return or two. And finally, the Falcons' front four will be expected to apply pressure all by themselves, unless Atlanta pulls a switch and unloads a blitz package at Donovan McNabb.

Never believe coaches who tell you before a big game, "You dance with who brung ya." Biggest lie in football. They're always changing things.

No pressure on McNabb, no chance, even with a set of Philly wideouts who are getting tremendous applause after the Vikings game, but still have to convince me they can beat defensive backs who challenge them. Minnesota's corners are coached to keep everything in front of them, to be spectators. Atlanta's corners won't donate such gifts to the Philly wideouts.

Atlanta's defense gets a lot of sacks and gives up a lot of passing yards, which means that its rush is better than their coverage. McNabb's record in the three straight championship losses includes one TD pass against four picks, and his wideouts have been non-factors, but I think that this time he'll get a little something going.

Yeah, I like the Eagles, sort of, only because in this era, points come from the passing game, not on the ground. 

MY PICK: Eagles 27, Falcons 20.

Sports Illustrated senior writer Paul Zimmerman covers the NFL for the magazine and SI.com. His Power Rankings, "Inside Football" column and Mailbag appear weekly on SI.com.