NFC NORTH

Everyone said I was nuts to pick the Bears to go 3-13. They were right. Nuts. Do you know what was firmly in my mind? That miserable Thanksgiving Day game, when the offensive line was a disaster and quarterbacks kept getting knocked over like tenpins, and they weren't that good, even when upright. Rex Grossman got hurt this year, the O-line showed no real improvement. I didn't care if the defense still was good, it wouldn't cover. OK, the 6-3 record makes me look like an idiot, but let's see what happens when the good teams appear on the schedule.

Jumping from an individual mistake to a collective one, we come to the Vikings. Dark horse Super Bowl team for some folks, remember? Good defensive arrivals: Pat Williams, Fred Smoot, Napoleon Harris, etc. I didn't go as far as others did. I just had them winning the division at 9-7. I was nervous about their new offensive coordinator, Steve Loney. I should have been nervous enough to drop them a couple of notches, which would have paved the way for...

The Packers. Consensus had 'em slumping. Bad defense. I had them slumping because of the loss of two excellent offensive guards. I see where they just benched Adrian Klemm, the left guard. What took them so long? Put a weak O-line in front of Favre, put out the same subpar defense, and the result is what you see. I had them at 8-8.

Some people showed some mild excitement about the Lions because of the fancy receivers and the advent of Jeff Garcia and one thing and another. Another preseason 8-8 for me, and just about everyone else.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina was my Super Bowl winner. I'm not kidding now ... I was really hoping Steve Smith would somehow step into the Muhsin Muhammad role. Not predicting, just hoping. Most of all, I liked John Fox, and the way the team rallied behind him down the stretch last year. I figured they'd keep it going this season. A few others also saw the Panthers as a Super Bowl dark horse, damn it!

Atlanta was my second wild-card team. OK so far, right? This was my GOOD division -- actually my only one in the NFC. Well, let's say my good two teams. I thought the Bucs would continue the deterioration that was showing last season, so I had them at 7-9. Other forecasters did, too, except for the ones who had them last, behind New Orleans. A few people predicted the Saints would make a move. They did, from New Orleans to San Antonio to Baton Rouge.

NFC WEST

The smart money was on Arizona because of a young, opportunistic defense. Darkhorse playoff team, to a few bold predictors. The 7-9 that I awarded them was based on a lack of faith in Kurt Warner, plus an O-line that didn't thrill me. I just didn't like that combination.

Now we get to the bad part. I had the Rams winning at 9-7, with the Seahawks posting the same mark but losing out via playoff formula. I'm trying to think back on what there was about St. Louis that I liked better than the Seahawks. Maybe it was the memory of how the 'Hawks lost to St. Louis three times last season, including the wild-card game, in which they blew a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter.

Things like that stay with me for a long time, too long I'd say. Next season I'll think it through a little more carefully, I promise. Gosh, I can't wait for the 2006 preseason to begin.