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Why No. 6 matters

FIFA rankings key for U.S. in World Cup positioning

Posted: Wednesday August 17, 2005 11:24AM; Updated: Wednesday August 17, 2005 11:32AM
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August 2005 FIFA Rankings
Country Points
1. Brazil 837
2. Argentina 782
3. Netherlands 780
4. Czech Republic 777
5. Mexico 770
6. United States 768
7. England 743
8. Spain 739
9(t). France 737
9(t). Portugal 737
11. Germany 722
12. Turkey 712
13. Italy 711
14. Ireland 709
15(t). Iran 708
15(t). Sweden 708
World Cup Seed Rankings
(*Clinched Berth in Germany 2006)
Country Points
1. Brazil 63.7
2. Spain 48.8
3. Germany 47.8*
4. Mexico 47.7
5. Argentina 47.0*
6. England 46.7
7. Italy 45.5
8. France 43.2
-------------------
9. Netherlands 42.8
10. United States 42.0
11. Denmark 37.5
12. Turkey 36.3
13. Ireland 32.8
14. Sweden 32.2
15. South Korea 29.2*

HARTFORD, Conn. -- Just as the U.S. readies for its World Cup qualifier Wednesday night against Trinidad & Tobago (ESPN2, 8 p.m. ET), FIFA has released its latest world rankings, in which the Americans remain at No. 6, the loftiest standing in team history (see chart, right).

The monthly FIFA standings are an easy thing for rankings-obsessed (and soccer-ignorant) U.S. headline-writers to latch onto, and they're a surefire way to get European soccerheads into a tizzy. How can the U.S. be ranked ahead of England, Germany, Italy and France? Rubbish!

Relax, folks. Even U.S. players and coaches stop short of claiming the Yanks are the planet's sixth-best team, acknowledging that the FIFA computer makes the BCS rankings look brilliant by comparison.

But to say, as most soccerheads do, that the FIFA rankings are meaningless is completely, irrefutably wrong.

Here's why: At next year's World Cup in Germany, eight heavyweight teams will receive seeds, one for each of the tournament's eight groups, and thus will avoid having to compete against the seven other seeded powers in the opening round.

It's no small advantage. If the U.S. gets a World Cup seed, it would have the distinct pleasure of avoiding a first-round group that includes a tournament favorite such as Brazil, Argentina, England, Italy or Germany.

And guess what? If FIFA uses the same system to determine World Cup seeds that it did in 2002, the much-maligned FIFA rankings will count for half of the determining factors. (The other half consists of performances in the past three World Cups, weighted more heavily toward recent results.)

As a result, even yo-yo soccer writers like me can fire up the spreadsheet and figure out where the U.S. stands, which is exactly what I did Wednesday morning. The results: Using the World Cup '02 criteria, the U.S. currently is No. 10 in the seed hunt, two spots out of a top group seed (See chart, above).

So, yes, the U.S. does have a chance at a World Cup seed, and the No. 6 spot in the FIFA rankings sure helps, to say nothing of the Americans' run to the quarterfinals in '02.

Keep in mind, there are plenty of caveats. First, it's entirely possible FIFA will change the seeding criteria when the World Cup organizing committee meets before the draw in December. Cynics claim FIFA somehow will find a way to produce the eight seeds it wants. Sure enough, a member from one CONCACAF delegation believes there's no way FIFA would allow two of the lightly regarded region's teams (Mexico and the U.S.) to be seeded.

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