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Ranking the NL rotations (cont.)

Posted: Monday February 14, 2005 12:56PM; Updated: Monday February 14, 2005 3:34PM
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CLICK HERE FOR PART II OF JACOB LUFT'S INSIDER

11. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitcher Age 2004
IP ERA dERA BB SO
1. Ben Sheets 26 237 2.70 2.71 32 264
2. Doug Davis 29 207.1 3.39 3.73 79 166
3. Victor Santos 28 154 4.97 4.26 57 115
4. Chris Capuano 26 88.1 4.99 5.20 37 80
5. Ben Hendrickson 24 125 2.02 4.95 26 93

Three-year Miller Park Indexes: Runs 100; HR 103
2004 Runs Allowed: 757, 10th in NL
Outlook: It's hard to overstate how dominant Sheets was last season. He finished third in ERA, second in strikeouts and first in strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.25). But lack of run support (19 runs in his 14 losses) doomed him to eighth in Cy Young voting. Sheets and Davis each had 24 quality starts, the third-highest totals in the league. It's all guesswork after those two, however, so don't be surprised if former Braves prospect Jose Capellan gets a chance.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitcher Age 2004
IP ERA dERA BB SO
1. Oliver Perez 23 196 2.98 3.61 81 239
2. Kip Wells 28 138.1 4.55 4.32 66 116
3. Josh Fogg 28 178.1 4.64 4.74 66 82
4. Mark Redman 31 191 4.71 5.04 68 102
5. Ryan Vogelsong 27 133 6.50 5.50 67 92

Three-year PNC Park Indexes: Runs 103; HR 91
2004 Runs Allowed: 744, ninth in NL
Outlook: The Brian Giles trade brought the Pirates an ace (Perez) and the Rookie of the Year (outfielder Jason Bay). It's worth watching the Bucs just to see Perez's electric stuff. Redman will benefit from a return to the NL, and Wells should rebound from an injury-plagued season. Help is on the way, too. According to Baseball America, seven of the Pirates' top 10 prospects are pitchers, including stud left-hander Zach Duke.

13. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitcher Age 2004
IP ERA dERA BB SO
1. Javier Vazquez 28 198 4.91 4.72 60 150
2. Russ Ortiz 31 204.2 4.13 4.77 112 143
3. Brandon Webb 26 208 3.59 4.34 119 164
4. Shawn Estes 32 202 5.84 5.46 105 117
5. Oscar Villarreal 23 18 7.00 4.28 7 17

Three-year Bank One Ballpark Indexes: Runs 118; HR 114
2004 Runs Allowed: 899, 14th in NL
Outlook: Haven't we bashed them enough for the Ortiz signing? Yes, but let's do it again anyway. Ortiz went from SBC Park with the Giants to Turner Field with the Braves, two of the more pitcher-friendly parks. Now he's in Arizona, where all those baserunners he allows will be trotting home on a more regular basis. Yankees exile Vazquez is the last guy to worry about here, especially when you consider that Ortiz, Webb and Estes could combine for 300 walks. It's going to be a long summer in the desert.

14. Colorado Rockies
Pitcher Age 2004
IP ERA dERA BB SO
1. Jason Jennings 26 201 5.51 4.76 101 133
2. Joe Kennedy 26 162.1 3.66 4.19 67 117
3. Shawn Chacon 27 63.1 7.11 5.88 52 52
4. Jeff Francis 24 36.2 5.15 4.87 13 32
5. Jamey Wright 30 78.2 4.12 4.96 45 41

Three-year Coors Field Indexes: Runs 136; HR 135
2004 Runs Allowed: 923, 16th in NL
Outlook: They have a horse in Jennings, who boasts a 23-13 career mark at Coors, and a big-time prospect in the left-handed Francis. If Kennedy can come anywhere close to those numbers from last season, this staff won't be half bad despite the presence of Chacon and Wright.

15. Washington Nationals
Pitcher Age 2004
IP ERA dERA BB SO
1. Livan Hernandez 30 255 3.60 4.02 83 186
2. Tony Armas Jr. 27 72 4.88 5.73 45 54
3. Tomo Ohka 29 84.2 3.40 4.61 20 38
4. Esteban Loaiza 33 183 5.70 4.91 71 117
5. Zach Day 27 116.2 3.93 4.68 45 61

Moving to RFK
2004 Runs Allowed: 769, 11th in NL
Outlook: Hernandez may be the game's most underrated pitcher. He has posted five consecutive seasons of 200-plus innings, leading the league in innings pitched the past two seasons. As for the rest of this group, does it rain much in D.C. during the summer?

16. Cincinnati Reds
Pitcher Age 2004
IP ERA dERA BB SO
1. Paul Wilson 32 183.2 4.36 4.67 63 117
2. Eric Milton 29 201 4.75 5.18 75 161
3. Ramon Ortiz 32 128 4.43 4.63 38 82
4. Aaron Harang 27 161 4.86 4.47 53 125
5. Luke Hudson 28 48.1 2.42 4.08 25 38

Three-year Great American Ballpark Indexes: Runs 92; HR 114
2004 Runs Allowed: 907, 15th in NL
Outlook: Reds fans had not seen decent pitching in so long that Wilson must have seemed Koufax-like. But that's all Wilson was -- decent. He is an ace in name only. Milton will give them innings, but he's an extreme flyball pitcher with a launching pad for a home stadium. If the Reds break camp with Rich Aurilia at shortstop and the aging Ken Griffey Jr. in center field, run for the hills.

Jacob Luft is a Baseball Producer for SI.com.
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