Extra MustardSI On CampusFantasyPhoto GalleriesSwimsuitVideoFanNationSI KidsTNT

Upon further review

Was Sheffield robbed of his first MVP last season?

Posted: Friday February 18, 2005 12:31PM; Updated: Friday February 18, 2005 1:48PM
Free E-mail AlertsE-mail ThisPrint ThisSave ThisMost PopularRSS Aggregators
Gary Sheffield
Gary Sheffield belted 36 home runs in his first season with the Yankees.
Al Bello/Getty Images

For as much as Gary Sheffield has done for baseball writers over the years, you would think they would have rewarded him with some hardware by now. Instead, the Yankees slugger will enter his 18th season in 2005 searching for his first MVP award.

Spring training has just begun and look at what Sheffield already provided for the New York tabloids this week, ripping teammate Jason Giambi for "sitting here crying" about his role in the steroids scandal and belittling the accomplishments of the 2004 American League MVP, Vladimir Guerrero. Sheffield finished second to Guerrero in MVP voting despite playing half his games in Yankee Stadium, which he believes to be a much tougher park for right-handed hitters (more on that later).

Years from now historians can debate where this ranks on the hierarchy of Sheffield's meltdowns. My guess is it's below both the 2001 "stupid contract" diatribe in which Sheffield attacked many of his Dodgers teammates --"I'm getting less than [Darren] Dreifort?" -- and the 1992 L.A. Times interview in which he admitted to tanking plays on purpose in Milwaukee.

But the truly interesting part of what Sheffield said had nothing to do with Giambi. It was Sheff's grumbling about the MVP award and what he perceives to be a career-long snub in MVP voting. Did he deserve the award more than Guerrero?

Thanks to the value of hindsight and some of the newfangled statistical tools at our disposal, it becomes easier to answer this question than it was last October.

At the time the ballots were due, Guerrero had just carried his Angels past the A's for the AL West title, giving himself invaluable momentum; Sheffield's Yankees, meanwhile, had wrapped up a playoff berth on Sept. 23. But instead of getting caught up in the emotion of the pennant race and basing the decision on a small sample of games, let's look at their seasons as a whole as well as the rest of the top five:

2004 American League MVP Voting
Player Points Avg. OBP Slg. VORP RCAA Win Shares
1. Vladimir Guerrero, ANA 354 .337 .391 .598 88.5 56 29
2. Gary Sheffield, NYY 254 .290 .393 .534 63.4 40 31
3. Manny Ramirez, BOS 238 .308 .397 .613 68.6 49 28
4. David Ortiz, BOS 174 .301 .380 .603 71.3 46 25
5. Miguel Tejada, BAL 123 .311 .360 .534 73.0 23 30
* Each Win Share is equal to 1/3 of a win. (Bill James)
* Runs Created Above Average is the difference between a player's runs created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs. (Lee Sinins)
* Value Over Replacement Player is the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. (Baseball Prospectus)

Other than on-base percentage, the rate stats are decidedly favor Guerrero over Sheffield. Guerrero also carries the day in VORP and RCAA. In fact, a better argument can be made for Manny Ramirez and perhaps David Ortiz than Sheffield, who at least gets the nod in Win Shares. Before we can declare a winner between Guerrero and Sheffield, though, we have to consider another factor: home ballpark.

No right-handed Yankee has hit 40 home runs since Joe DiMaggio in 1937. Here are the home-run indexes for right-handed hitters at Angel Stadium and Yankee Stadium last season:

Angel Stadium: 103
Yankee Stadium: 101
(100 is the average; taken from the 2005 Bill James Handbook)

There is little difference between the two stadiums for right-handed hitters going deep in 2004, so Sheffield's argument doesn't wash here.

Player Ast. E Pct. Range Factor Zone Rating
Guerrero 13 9 .973 2.34 .871
Sheffield 11 5 .983 2.15 .856

What about defense? Did Sheffield, an underrated defender, make up any ground with a superior season with the glove? Here are how the two right fielders' key defensive stats compare for 2004.

I'm not a big believer in any of the defensive metrics we have available, so take these for what they are worth. MVP voters are most likely to go by reputation, anyway, which would give a huge edge to Guerrero.

Conclusion: Sorry Sheff. Guerrero deserved the MVP. But please, Gary, don't let that stop you from providing us with more juicy column fodder in the future.

Continue

Search