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Will White Sox cool off?

	Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The White Sox are turning back the clock to 1919 in more ways than one. It isn't just that they have the best record (24-7) in baseball so much as how they are doing it -- with a pitching staff so stingy (league-best 102 runs allowed) you would think the spitball was back in vogue. On offense the White Sox are taking a smallball, waste-outs-all-day approach that has them leading the American League in caught stealings (15) and sacrifice hits (12) while ranking ninth in runs scored. Plus, the Sox are tops in the majors in defensive efficiency (turning batted balls into outs) by a huge margin.

How long can they keep this up? Probably about as long as Dustin Hermanson's ERA remains as low as D-Day's grade-point average. Chicago has an ungodly 13-3 record in one-run games and is playing three games above its Pythagorean mark (based on run differential). The second-place Twins, meanwhile, are one game below where they should be, which if you take both factors together should mean we are in for a terrific race in the AL Central. Here are the five teams whose won-loss record is higher than what it should be according to the Pythagorean standings:

Team, Rec., Diff.
1. Diamondbacks, 18-14, plus-4
2. White Sox, 24-7, plus-3
3. Athletics, 14-17, plus-3
4. Orioles, 20-10, plus-2
5. Pirates, 13-17, plus-2

-- Jacob Luft (12:30 p.m.)

I find it funny that Kenny Williams gets no love for sticking his butt out and jettisoning Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Lee and Jose Valentin to bring in Iguchi, El Duque, Dustin Hermanson, Scott Podsednik, Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski for the same relative cost. If Billy Beane does that, we have to wipe the drool off the street.
-- Chris D., Madison, Wisc. (1:21 p.m.)

Have you noticed, incidentally, that the Tigers are four games under where their run differential puts them and have yet to have a healthy Magglio Ordonez?
-- David Sparks, New Orleans (1:36 p.m.)

I don't want to hear about how the Pythagorean standings reflect the true record of the club. Night in and night out this club is winning ballgames. It's not sexy. Heck, I'd barely consider anyone other than Mark Buerhle for my fantasy team, but they are winning. They are for real, they will be there at the end of the season and it's time to start writing about how great this time might be instead of when they will fail.
-- Sean, Greenwood, Ind. (1:41 p.m.)

I don't understand why sportwriters are so quick to put down the White Sox and label their proficiency in one-run games as "luck." Instead of looking at meaningless statistics like the Pythagorean standings, why don't you try looking at the one statistic that does matter -- their record -- and realize that the Sox have what it takes to get the job done in close games.
-- Tim S., Iowa City, Iowa (1:41 p.m.)

I don't understand what the obsession is with "having what it takes" to win close games. At the end of the season, all of these things will balance out. While the White Sox might win a bunch of close games now, there is no reason to think that such a trend will continue. Whatever we might like to believe about our own particular teams, there is no "magic" that helps certain teams win all the close games. Find a team that excels at winning one-run games one year, and they will likely have trouble the next. That suggests that luck, not pluck, is the root of success in close contests.
-- Bryan, Chapel Hill, N.C. (1:56 p.m.)

As a Twins fan, I'm getting pretty sick of hearing all about the White Sox doing so well by playing "smallball." If you look at the stats, rather than just listen to what the Sox manager and players say, you'll see that they are scoring runs the exact same way they always have: hitting homeruns. They rank fourth in the AL in homers, yet are ninth in batting average, hits, and runs. Does that sound like smallball to you? Contrast with the Twins, who are in the top five in the AL in batting average, runs, and hits, yet eighth in homers. Now that's smallball.
-- Mike Hood, Irvine, Calif. (2:06 p.m.)

Since you bring up Pythagoras, the Yankees were 12 (!) games over their prediction last year. So they took an 89-win team and did not improve it in the offseason (their bullpen is worse, their bench thinner, their offense a year older). Is their slow start a surprise? Nope.
-- Neal, Elkridge (2:06 p.m.)

The main reason the Sox won't falter: None of the pitchers are having a fluky season. Each of the first four have been solid at some point in their careers, and Garland has long had a rep of being capable of what he's doing. With about 130 games left, even if the Sox played .500 ball they'd be about 90-72. But with solid starters and a good pen, they can play at an even higher clip than that. Pencil the Sox in for a 100-win season and a legitimate shot at the AL pennant.
-- Eric, Urbana, Ill. (2:16 p.m.)

OK. We know the White Sox won't win 122 games. Their offense scores less often than the Runaway Bride. And no, El Duque, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Co. can't keep up their current improbable parsimony. But here are three reasons the Sox will stay in the AL Central race:
1) Konerko, Dye, Rowand and Uribe will heat up at some point. And even if they don't completely come around, it's possible to make the postseason with a lackluster lineup. (Just look at last year's Twins.)
2) Frank Thomas will be back soon, following his minor league rehab assignment. Even if the Big Hurt is a semblance of his former self, he'll help the offense.
3) None of the other AL Central teams are particularly intimidating. Ninety wins should be enough to take the division. The Sox need only go 66-65 the rest of the way to sew things up.
-- A.J. Crawford, Hoboken, N.J. (2:16 p.m.)

As far as the Tigers go, Alan Trammell could not do anything about running out relievers who had no business being in pressure situations at the end of games. With the addition of Troy Percival and Kyle Farnsworth and the return of Ugueth Urbina, the Tigers have a bullpen now. They may not quite be ready to challange this year, but give the young starters another year and they will be contenders in the AL Central.
-- Josh A., Brooklyn, N.Y. (2:36 p.m.)

"Smartball," not smallball. Forget what the writers call it and listen to Ozzie. The team is winning because it adjusts to the situation it is in at any point in time. Pitching duel (Opening Day 1-0 win), grind it out, slugfest (game 2 at Toronto this weekend), swing away. Let us not forget the White Sox have led in all 31 games played. That isn't luck. That is timely hitting, great defense and players who want to win for themselves, the team, the manager, and the city.
-- Trent M., Ft. Wayne, Ind. (4:16 p.m.)

Expecting the White Sox to keep up their level of play is extremely unlikely. The White Sox have had a very easy schedule so far and only Buehrle's ERA is anywhere near where we should expect it to end up (3.78 versus an average of 2.69 for the rest of the rotation). With an extremely poor offense that neither gets on base at a great clip nor has great slugging with little chance at getting better (beyond Konerko and potentially Everett) leads one to believe that they can't keep this up. The White Sox are just the 2004 Cincinnati Reds all over again.
-- Trent M., Ft. Wayne, Ind. (4:36 p.m.)

Trammell is taking a lot of heat in Detroit, and rightly so -- he is making too many moves. He is playing percentages to a fault. If Ozzie Guillen went to his bullpen for no reason at all in the same way Tram has been, they'd have lost five more games than they have. Pythagorean theory or not, you've got to have a head for pitchers to manage in the majors and Tram doesn't have it.
-- Tim Johnston, Windsor, Ontario (5:41 p.m.)

Do the math people. The Sox are on pace to win 75 percent of their games. Are they really gonna win 120-plus games this year? No way. They'll come back and that's why the Pythagorean mark applies. The Sox are playing over their heads. The question is, how much?
-- Joe Rehor, Chicago (11:46 p.m.)