Vladimir Guerrero is already more than halfway home on his quest for 3,000 hits. Chuck Solomon/SI
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What does it take to become a member of the 3,000-hit club? It helps to answer that question first when you are trying to figure out who will be the most likely candidates to follow Rafael Palmeiro to 3,000. I looked at the most pertinent facts and figures of the 25 current members and came up with the following profile to look for:

• No college experience. Only eight of the 25 players went to college, which makes sense because it gave them an extra couple of years to compile hits. Robin Yount, for example, was in the big leagues at 19.

• Power. Although most of the members who played early in the 20th century were slap-hitters of the Ty Cobb/Eddie Collins mode, 12 of the past 13 players to reach 3,000 hits also hit at least 200 home runs.

• Speed. Fifteen of the 25 players stole at least 200 bases during their careers. Ten of those 15 played after 1950, and that doesn't include Pete Rose, who stole 198 bases.

• Batting eye. Sixteen of the 25 players had more walks than strikeouts in their careers. Among the other nine, five of them had walk totals that were within 200 of their strikeouts.

Putting all four factors together (while giving a nod to Bill James, the originator of The Favorite Toy premise), here are my 10 players (other than Palmeiro) most likely to reach 3,000 hits.

1. Julio Franco, 46 years old, 2,496 hits
Or is it 2,494 years old and 46 hits? The funny thing is, I'm not even sure if I'm kidding by putting him on this list.

2. Craig Biggio, 39, 2,730
He might have been at 3,000 by now if he hadn't gone to college; he was 23 when he broke into the big leagues. Biggio will need about 200 more hits after this season. I'm guessing he will hang around to reach the mark because, the never-ending Roger Clemens farewell tour notwithstanding, what else does the Houston franchise have going for it?

3. Alex Rodriguez, 29, 1,812
If signing a quarter-billion dollar contract doesn't hurt his motivation, nothing will. He won't have to wait nearly as long for his 500th home run -- he's already at 403.

4. Vladimir Guerrero, 29, 1,511
Guerrero fits the 3,000-hit mold very well: no college, speedy and a contact hitter with power. He's never struck out more than 95 times in a season or walked more than 84.

5. Albert Pujols, 25, 901
Just like Vlad, he got an early start, breaking into the majors at age 21 (allegedly) and is the consummate contact hitter.