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Know Your Role

	AP

The Curt Schilling-as-closer experiment is off to a shaky start in Boston, and I can't say I'm surprised. Even a healthy Schilling -- and clearly, he is not 100 percent healthy -- wouldn't be suited for the closer role, to say nothing of a hobbled one. The most effective closers have two things going for them:

1) Control.
2) Keeping the ball in the yard.

Schilling has no problem with the first part; his control is impeccable. But preventing home runs is another matter entirely. Here are his home runs allowed and HR/9 IP ratios for the past five years:

Year HR HR/9 IP
2004 23 0.91
2003 17 .912
2002 29 1.01
2001 37 1.30
2000 27 1.15

Let's give Schilling his due here. For a starting pitcher who logs as many innings as him, those are excellent numbers. But for a closer? Not so much. Check out the HR/9 IP ratios for the top 10 saves leaders from last season:

Closer, HR/9 IP

Mariano Rivera, 0.34

Francisco Cordero, 0.13

Armando Benitez, 0.78

Jason Isringhausen, 0.60

Eric Gagne, 0.55

John Smoltz, 0.88

Joe Nathan, 0.37

Jose Mesa, 0.78

Trevor Hoffman, 0.82

Danny Graves, 1.58

Among these closers, Graves was the only one who gave up more than 1.00 home runs per nine innings. He's also not a closer anymore. A better example is Danny Kolb, who saved 39 games for the Brewers despite a paltry strikeout total of 21. But he only walked 15 batters and limited opponents to three homers in 57 1/3 innings. (Of course, he's not a closer anymore, either, so maybe strikeouts are important, too.)

Using a top starting pitcher in this role wouldn't be such a big deal if this weren't the Red Sox, but this is a club that doesn't save its closer to protect a three-run lead in the ninth. They like to use their best reliever in more high-leverage situations (i.e. tie games) than most teams, and those are the times when giving up a home run can lose the game.

-- Jacob Luft (1:00 p.m.)

I do not feel that it is fair to compare the HR per 9 innings of a full-time closer and a starter. Pitching only one inning and throwing 10-20 high intensity pitches is different than throwing 100 or so over the course of a game. The starter has a greater chance of giving up a home run when trying to get ahead on a batter in a 5-0 game in the sixth inning or something. Closers should strictly be compared to closers and starters compared to starters. It is not fair because stats can easily be skewed when dealing with these two very different types of pitcher.
-- Neal, New York City (1:26 p.m.)

I think that nursing Schilling along is a bold move from the Red Sox. As with any starter, it takes some time and innings to adjust to game situations. Pedro Martinez is a great example of this. Jump on him early before he settles in and clamps down. The same goes for Schilling. There are not enough game situation pitches or innings in a relief role for him to settle down and show his true form. Get him back into the starting role and watch him take over. He is and always will be a workhorse of any staff he is on.
-- Salar Ghahary, Randolph, N.J. (1:32 p.m.)

Curt Schilling showed in his minor league starts that it is taking him an inning or two to settle in. If you are the closer you don't have that luxury. He should be pitching middle relief and let Mike Timlin close.
-- Lance, Boston (1:36 p.m.)

As much as it makes for good sports talk, maybe Curt Schilling got rocked last night because he simply ripped on the wrong guy. After all the smack talking about A-Rod the Sox have done, you don't think that guy was foaming at the mouth to make an impact? Just look at what Rivera did in the bottom of the ninth. He absolutely blew them away. Maybe the Yanks were just really motivated. Give Schilling a few more shots at this before all the experts decide it can't be done.
-- RS, Dallas (1:36 p.m.)

Watching Schilling throw against Yankees was like watching Ali vs Holmes. The Sox betrayed him by throwing him with an 85 mph "heater" against Sheffield & A-Rod. It was disrespectful.
-- Moe Berg, Mission Viejo, Calif. (1:46 p.m.)

Send Schilling back to the Paw Sox. The experiment failed so let's move on.
-- Paul Kelley, Nashua, N.H. (1:51 p.m.)

Looking at two other prominent examples of starters becoming closers, there is a bit of an indication what to expect (if Schilling is healthy, which I think is clearly in doubt). Dennis Eckersley averaged 0.966 HR/9IP from 1975-1986 (predominantly a starter) and 0.900 HR/9IP from 1987-1998 (predominantly a closer). John Smoltz averaged 0.727 HR/9IP as a starter from 1988-1999 and .662 HR/9IP from 2001-2004, predominantly as a closer. While two players do not make up a significant enough sample size to project forward, I would expect a health Schilling to average somewhere between 0.85-0.95 HR/9IP. That would not be too much higher than average for the group you list. I tend to agree with you that Schilling-as-closer is not the best strategy but less because of the home runs (which are still a little troubling) and more because I'm not convinced Schilling is all that healthy and because I don't know that pitching out of the bullpen is going to help him regain the stamina he needs as a starter. I'll give Theo Epstein and Schilling the benefit of the doubt here, but there are certainly signs that this might not work out.
-- Chris, Mount Airy, Md. (2:26 p.m.)

One thing I might consider to take this a step further is Schilling's HR/9 IP but only using the first inning of his starts. It would still not be an exact parallel given that he might be trying to pace himself and the first inning does not have the same game-in-the-balance scenarios. Still, no pitcher is as relaxed in the first inning or as willing to shrug off a homer as one might be with a big lead in late innings. Limiting the analysis to the first inning would provide some correction for HRs given up with higher pitch counts or when the game was in hand.
-- Ed, Denver (3:25 p.m.)

I think your point about Kolb made for good copy, but was somewhat inaccurate. If you watched him this year, you realize his problem has been control, which as you pointed as was the reason for his success with the Brewers. His K/9 is pretty good this year and he knew where his ball was going he probably would of been moderately successful this year even without a high strikeout total. Although maybe last year was the fluke, so I guess we will have to see.
-- Todd, Brooklyn, N.Y. (3:31 p.m.)

How is it that you are a writer and Terry Francona is a manager? I mean with your knowledge of the game, you could be managing a major league team. You might want to think about applying for the next vacancy that occurs, genius.
-- John, Houston (3:36 p.m.)

The Red Sox need to get relief help from outside of their organization. Schilling probably should be resting and not pitching at all, but there really is no one to close. Timlin's stuff is not good enough to close but sufficient for the setup role. Boston needs to get a closer like Billy Wagner. It will cost them, but it is the only hope for the season.
-- Tom, Duxbury, Mass. (4:21 p.m.)

So Schilling is more likely to give up home runs early. That stat would indicate that he is not suited to be a closer. What showed to me last night more than anything with Schilling was rust, he just hung a couple of nice fat meatballs up there for Sheffield and A-Rod and he paid for it. As much as I do not like the Sox or Schilling, I think using him out of the bullpen is a smart move and would wait a few more appearances before making a judgement.
-- Mike, Jersey City, N.J. (4:26 p.m.)