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Have some chipotle

	AP

We're all buying into the Indians. They are the "it" team, the chipotle sauce of the 2005 baseball season. Haven't you heard? Wild cards have won the past three World Series by getting hot at the right time, and now the Indians are poised to do the same -- if they don't win the division outright from the disintegrating White Sox, that is. This obsession with the newest hotness has been bugging me for weeks, and now that I finally know what's in The Hatch, I have turned my attention toward trying to answer the question: How important is it to be "hot" going into the playoffs?

Thanks to the best website ever and this handy-dandy tool from baseball-reference.com, I've pieced together the records for the final two months of the season from all 80 postseason teams of the wild-card era (since 1995). Here are the top 10 winning percentages followed by the bottom 10 and how they all did in the postseason:

Final Two Months Most Hotness
Year, Team, Pct., Playoffs
2001 A's, .804: Lost first round
2002 A's, .777: Lost first round
1999 Arizona, .719: Lost first round
1999 Atlanta, .714: Lost World Series
2001 Seattle, .714: Lost ALCS
2004 Boston , .700: Won World Series
1998 Houston , .698: Lost first round
1995 Cleveland, .695: Lost World Series
2004 Houston, .690: Lost NLCS
2001 St. Louis, .690: Lost first round

The tally: One World Series title, three league pennants, five first-round losers.

Final Two Months Least Hotness
Year, Team, Pct., Playoffs
1997 Astros, .463: Lost first round
1995 Rockies, .500: Lost first round
1998 Indians, .500: Lost ALCS
2001 Braves, .500: Lost NLCS
2000 Yankees, .508: Won World Series
1998 Padres, .509: Lost World Series
1996 Yankees, .509: Won World Series
2000 Mariners, .526: Lost ALCS
2000 Braves, .526: Lost first round
1996 Rangers, .527: Lost first round
1998 Red Sox, .527: Lost first round

The tally: Two World Series titles, three league pennants, five first-round losers.

This is what I figured: It doesn't matter. This isn't the NFL, where the team with the nine-game winning streak gets a bye and cruises into the Super Bowl. In baseball, you can win as many games in a row as you want, but if Johan Santana or Roger Clemens are pitching against you, you're probably going to lose that day. For what it's worth, here are the winning percentages of the current contenders since Aug. 1:

American League

Indians, .745 -- Are you as sick of chipotle as me?
Yankees, .673 -- Small and Chacon pray for rain.
Red Sox, .604 -- Why does it seems so much worse?
Angels, .574 -- Eh.
A's, .542 -- Bobby Crosby for MVP.
White Sox, .469 -- It's time to panic.

National League

Cardinals, .600 -- Only well-rounded team in the NL.
Phillies, .574 -- Puncher's chance.
Astros, .563 -- The Big Three can't be stopped.
Padres, .532 -- Even money to take out the Braves if Phillies win wild card.
Braves, .521 -- Three and out.

-- Jacob Luft (12:30 p.m.)

Glad to hear the Indians are the trendy pick now. It only seems that way because so many of you national media "experts" failed to realize how great this team was from the start.
-- Ash Thomas, Cleveland (12:51 p.m.)

Yeah, you're right. We should be sick of a team that's has a payroll one-quarter that of the Yankees and Red Sox. Don't they know we hate overachievers and underdogs? When Cleveland's ownership starts throwing money around like Congress after a hurricane, then we'll start to root for them.
-- Paul Dickard, Oakland, N.J. (12:51 p.m.)

Why is it that you are sick of Cleveland? Or "Chipotle" as you so mindlessly call them. Is it because there are no stars, no egos and no huge payroll and they just keep winning ballgames and having fun ... who wouldn't be sick of that right? And you call yourself a sportswriter.
-- Jerry, Boston (12:51 p.m.)

Lies, damn lies, and statistics! So you're sick of hearing about how hot the Indians are, huh? Well, we in the Midwest are tired of hearing how everyone is riveted by the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry. Too bad both those teams, with their obnoxious fans and their bloated payrolls, can't miss the playoffs. The Tribe's season is a great story, not the flavor of the month. This team is built to be good for years to come.
-- Kevin Phillips, Mantua, Ohio (1:11 p.m.)

Who cares about the Tribe? How many times in a season can they possibly play KC? KC will not be in the playoffs.
-- Jason, New York City (1:11 p.m.)

Why hate so much on the Indians? I think we can agree that the way every baseball "analyst" in America has suddenly jumped on the Indians' bandwagon in the last week is bogus, but still it's nice to see a team not named the Yankees or Red Sox finally get some coverage. The Indians, in terms of pitching, are a mile above the Red Sox and could give the overhyped young Yankee starters a run for their money. Bottom line, if the Tribe gets into the playoffs, they are likely the most dangerous team of the four, whether their september winning pct. is high or not. Hot or cold going in, the other three playoff teams wouldnt want to play them. Just give the Indians their due.
-- Chris, Parma, Ohio (1:11 p.m.)

Do the words "ersatz iconoclast" mean anything to you?
-- Martin Kopp, Detroit (1:16 p.m.)

Do you suppose the Indians have a cardboard picture of Rachel Phelps and are peeling sections as they win? Seriously though, going 35-12 since Aug. 1 should really say something about how this team COULD fare in the playoffs, but you just never know. I think this is a telling stat though: Since July 31, the Indians have had five streaks of three or more wins at a time, and only one each of a three-game losing streak and a two-game losing streak. That's an indication to me that they're getting it done with pitching AND with the bats and I don't know of anyone short of the Yankees who'd want to face this team right now.
-- Brad Bourbina, Pittsburg, Kan. (1:21 p.m.)

Isn't it somewhat foolish to make a prediction on the 2005 Indians based on other teams and other years? You went to great lengths to try to state the obvious: when the playoffs start, each team has a one-in-eight chance in a 3 series season, whether they finished the regular season hot or not.
-- Mike, Bath, Ohio (1:21 p.m.)

Mr. Luft, I think you've lost some perspective. What about fans of teams not from NY or Boston? The fans hear about the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets far too much to get "sick" of a team from a town that has not won anything in 40-plus years. I'm frankly sick of hearing about the mediocre and overpaid teams from NY and Boston.
-- AJ, Washington, D.C. (1:21 p.m.)

The Astros' Big Three can't be stopped? Someone might want to tell both the Astros and Cardinals that. The Stros have won all of three games against the Cards when Pettite, Clemens, & Oswalt start.
-- Casey, Des Moines, Iowa (1:26 p.m.)

Perhaps analysts are suddenly jumping on the bandwagon because the Indians have suddenly started winning at an .800 clip. Why's everybody so harsh? Where's the love for Luft? Personally I think it's an act of charity on his part to feature the Indians in this little interactive column considering the fact that anyone in their right mind knows that the Tribe has no chance of making the world series.
-- Ellen, Tenafly, N.J. (1:31 p.m.)

In 2004, Boston was the hottest team over the second half. Result: World Series. In 2003, Florida was the hottest team over the second half. Result: World Series. In 2002, the angels were the second-hottest team after the 20-in-a-row winning A's. Result: World Series. Momentum does matter.
-- Robert Smith, San Francisco (1:41 p.m.)

Why so sensitive, Tribe fans? This piece is not an attack on your team in any way. All that was said was that there is not a positive correlation between being hot at the end of the season and being successful in the postseason. And I'm pretty sure that at no point were there aspersions cast at your team as not being worthy of getting to the postseason. I for one appreciate it when someone takes the time to LOOK SOMETHING UP rather than just state a personal opinion as fact. A lot has been made of the fact that as the "hot" team going in to the playoffs the Indians would have an edge, and I think that the research shows that that is probably not true, that if the Indians are to succeed in the playoffs it will be because they are a good team, and NOT because they have a winning streak. And there is really no need to take potshots at the Red Sox while you are overreacting to the piece. Very bad form.
-- Barb, Manchester, N.H. (1:46 p.m.)

C'mon, Jacob ... don't rain on our parade. We're so completely over the Yankees buying a winner every year that when the biggest "feel good" story in pro sports comes around, there's always the guy (you!) who tries to burst our bubble. Will the Tribe win the division? Will they win the wild card? Let's just let the next nine games play out and let us midwesterners enjoy this thing. We are all tired of NY, Boston, Mets, and Barry Bonds. Let's end this star-driven ESPN highlight of sports and just become fans! PS. You should change your last name to Field!
-- Tom Budas, Kirtland, Ohio (1:56 p.m.)

Yeah, we know what's in the hatch, but tell me, were you like me and uttered the words: "No F@#$ing way" when we learned the guy in the hatch turned out to be the guy Jack met in the stadium? BTW, Cardinals win 3-0, 4-0, 4-1 ... end of story.
-- John, Atlanta (2:06 p.m.)

Keep your chin up Duke Luft, you're not as big an idiot as some of these people think, and I don't like chipotle either.
-- Tracy Ballard, Amarillo, Texas (2:16 p.m.)

It's not about who's hottest at the end of the season, it's who is best built to win a short series. When you put the top three starters from each AL postseason contender up against each other, who do you like more than Cleveland?
-- Kris, Saint Paul, Minn. (2:26 p.m.)

Well thanks for spoiling it for all of us who couldn't watch it on Wednesday and were waiting for the weekend.
-- JR, Panama (2:46 p.m.)

The Indians are a good team, but look seriously at the compition. Since July 18 they have played 18 games agianst teams with winning records, including the White sox (which shouldn't count). The A's had 28, the Yankees 25 and the Red Sox 27. I will not play the uneven-schedule card, but you have to admit the schedule has been favorable for the Indians and they are just taking advantage of it.
-- Nick, Rochester, N.Y. (3:01 p.m.)

How many times does Cleveland play Kansas City? As many as the Yankees play Tampa Bay. People don't hate the Yankees becuase of their payroll, it's because of their annoying fans.
-- Dave Campbell, Olmsted Township, Ohio (3:21 p.m.)

If loving Chipotle or the Indians is wrong, I don't want to be right.
-- Matt, Cleveland (3:41 p.m.)

I'd be curious to see the list for hottest/coldest playoff teams for each year since 1995. Only one team can win it each year, yet your top 10 chipolte-hot list shows three teams from 2001, and the bottom 10 has three from 2000.
-- Darrin, Albany, N.Y. (3:51 p.m.)

You can't blame the Red Sox and Yankees for getting overexposed. They are two of the most storied franchises in sports history. They have some of the most passionate fans in the world. And they both have fans all over the world. In the end, it's about money, and Red Sox and Yankees sell, while quaint small-market teams don't. Get over it.
-- Sean, Boston (4:11 p.m.)

I love chipotle. Is Willie Mays Hayes still on the Indians? That guy sure is fast.
-- Nick, Jacksonville, Fla. (5:06 p.m.)