Because the world needs another sports blog ...

Pods for Lee

	Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

If ever there was a trade in which it appears both teams won, it has to be the Scott Podsednik-for-Carlos Lee deal from last winter. The White Sox diversified their offense, improved their outfield defense and won an AL-best 99 games. The Brewers got an All-Star season from Lee and finished with their first non-losing record since 1992.

At least, that is what conventional wisdom says about the deal. As much as I enjoy watching Pods play, I can't help looking at these numbers and scratching my head as to how he makes the White Sox a better team than Lee did:

2005 Stats
Player, VORP, Win Shares
Podsednik, 13.4, 12
Lee, 34.3, 24
(NOTE: VORP stands for Value Over Replacement Player -- from BaseballProspectus.com -- and the Win Shares are courtesy of Hardballtimes.com.

Uh-huh. So according to these advanced metrics Lee is at least twice as valuable a player than Pods. But Pods also played an exceptional left field this season didn't he? According to Fielding Runs Above Replacement (another BP stat), Pods was worth 19 runs in left field and Lee was worth three, so that confirms what we've seen with the naked eye as far as their fielding prowess.

Largely because of this trade, the White Sox's offense dipped from 865 runs in 2004 to 741 this season. But Chicago's improved run prevention -- from 831 runs allowed in 2004 to 645 in 2005 -- more than made up for that. You think Jon Garland's breakout performance and having Freddy Garcia for the whole season might have had something to do with that?

Don't get me wrong. I am a huge proponent of what Pods and players like him (Juan Pierre, Brett Butler) bring to the table every day -- defense, contact hitting, speed -- as opposed to the every-fourth-day big blasts by guys like Lee. I'm willing to look past what these newfangled metrics (that are slanted toward burly sluggers anyway) are telling me and accept things based on what I see in the real world. Are you?

Other observations from Thursday's games:

• John Smoltz gave the Braves seven innings yesterday in his start against the Astros. From 2001-04, his four seasons as a closer, Smoltz pitched a total of 18 1/3 postseason innings. Yeah, the Braves are better off using one of the best playoff pitchers of all time as a starter.

• Phil Garner gets it. The Astros manager used his Game 4 starter, Brandon Backe, for an inning against the Braves on his bullpen throw day yesterday. (Backe pitched a scoreless sixth.) Bullpen throw days are for the regular season. This is October. If one of your better pitchers is able to throw off the mound today, get him into the game to pick up a couple of those 27 outs you need to win a game.

• Many of you have taken my critiques of Ozzie Guillen's wacky tactics to mean I'm anti-Ozzie. But as much fun as we all have obsessing about in-game strategy, the truth is that it doesn't have nearly as much to do with winning and losing as people think. Pitchers make pitches and hitters hit them or they don't and fielders make plays or they don't. That's what wins or loses.

I apologize for the name-dropping I'm about to do but it's important to make this point: Earlier this season I talked with former All-Star Andy Van Slyke in the green room of Stephen A. Smith's Quite Frankly (don't ask) and he confirmed what I said about in-game tactics being overrated. He boiled down the job of a manager to one word: "accountability." Keep in mind that Van Slyke played for two of the game's best skippers: Whitey Herzog and Jim Leyland. That brings me to what I heard White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko say earlier this season about Guillen: "If something goes wrong it's immediately addressed. Right away. That inning. In the dugout."

-- Jacob Luft (1:30 p.m.)

You say you are a big proponent of guys like Pods who are great contact hitters. As far as I'm concerned, there's nothing so great about .290 and less than 150 hits.
-- Jonny, Baltimore (2:07 p.m.)

Don't forget that the Whites Sox traded Carlos Lee to get Pods, Luis Vizcaino, and it also freed up money to get O. Hernandez. It was really a three-for-one deal. Everyone forgets this.
-- Tim T., Chicago (2:16 p.m.)

Glad to see advanced metrics being used more often by the mainstream media, so congratulations on that. Two things I wanted to note: Win Shares from the Hardball Times take into account defense, so that's factored into the overall WS total, and if you wanted to use Baseball Prospectus's combined stat, WARP, the advantage still comes out to Lee. He has 4.1 to Pods' 3.7 , so the difference actually isn't that great with defense factored in. I'll wager the Sox would have a better run differential with Lee than Scott though. Hitters in the AL tend to have fewer win shares due to having an additional batter divy up the runs created, which is why their WARP are so close. I still think it was a dumb trade though.
-- Michael Lafser, St. Louis (2:21 p.m.)

A good leadoff hitter is just as valuable as a power RBI guy. I would be hard pressed to choose between a guy who can get rallies started and a guy who can capatilize with men on base.
-- Brad, St. Louis (2:26 p.m.)

You're way off putting Juan Pierre and Brett Butler in the same class. One has nothing but speed and is on his way down quickly, the other was a valuable leadoff man well into his late thirties. Obviously the "stat-heads" don't favor ONLY the big guys.
-- Neil, L.A. (2:42 p.m.)

You're a goof. Phil Garner gets it? Are you kidding me? That moron sends his closer out in a 7-1 game. Brad Lidge doesn't need the work, he's pitched all season. Rest him in case you him for two innings next time out.
-- Bhavesh, NYC (2:46 p.m.)

The numerical comparison doesn't tell the whole story for any speed guy, or a team increasing its overall speed. Speed on the basepaths leads to better clutch hitting. Pitchers that are distracted don't pitch as well. Speed on defense also helps that great pitching in Chicago. If Pods saves one RBI hit per game with his glove and speed, that lowers each pitcher's ERA by almost one run and lowers the runs scored by 162 over a season. Now I know no one saves one run a night, but even if it's every two games, it's a dramatic number over a season (0.5 in ERA and 80 fewer runs scored). Speed is the most overlooked factor in this really lame Moneyball era. Give me three infield speedsters in a lineup to go with those power hitters on first and the outfield, and I'll beat your record with a Moneyball lineup seven times out of 10.
-- Chris McCoy, L.A. (3:15 p.m.)

Podsednik 2005 salary: 700,000.
Lee 2005 salary: 8,000,000.
Isn't that the difference between the two -- and perhaps what allows the White Sox to afford to pay for a whole team?
-- Will, Chicago (3:16 p.m.)

The lineup has to be a good mix of different types of hitters. Somebody has to lead off, and it won't be Carlos Lee. That's why Tim T. in Chicago makes a great point -- it was a three-for-one deal. Evaluation of any trade in this era has to factor in the economics.
-- Frank Pugh, Leesburg, Va. (4:21 p.m.)

What are Smoltz's Hall of Fame chances if he retired today? I feel like given his dominance as both a starter and reliever, both in the regular and postseason, plus the fact that he's a stand-up guy (not really performance-related, but I feel like the voters like it) that he's pretty much a shoo-in.
-- Tom Oliphant, Alpharetta, Ga. (4:21 p.m.)

Would you also think that the absence of Frank Thomas this year had a large impact on reduced White Sox run production?
-- John, Chicago (4:51 p.m.)

You hit it on the head. Podsednik is a nice player and has been a nice poster child for "Smartball," but what made this team so great this year were the following:
1) Contreras for Loaiza.
2) Garcia for prospects.
3) Signing Tadahito Iguchi.
-- Brent, Ann Arbor, Mich. (5:01 p.m.)

Chris from L.A. gets it. He knows why the A's lost to the Red Sox or Yankees every year. Moneyball really doesn't win championships, good players do.
-- Mike Dougherty, Jersey City, N.J. (5:01 p.m.)

If you look at Podsednik's on-base percantage from last year (2004) you will notice it was under 300. That alone showed you why the Brewers wanted to go with Brady Clark, whose on-base percantage was 100 points higher. That's pretty big out of a leadoff guy if you ask me. The RBIs from Carlos Lee just sweetened the deal and showed how big of an underrated genuis Bob Melvin is.
-- John Vanderveen, Randolph, Wisc. (1:36 a.m., Saturday)

So will you rub in the other baseball writers faces that picked the Red Sox to beat my beloved White Sox? You need to.
-- Arthur Oates, Chicago (1:51 a.m., Saturday)

As for those knocking Moneyball tactics, you obviously did not read the book well enough. Moneyball was all about finding which statistics were underated by baseball and getting players which excelled in them, namely on base percentage. Don't you think if Billy Beane had two hundred million to spend a year he'd have a completely different team? He never once said his offense was the best or even as good as he wanted it to be, he was just getting the best value for his money. Anybody who knocks Beane and how he put together a team should reread the book and then decide. As for the Podsednik deal, even if Lee is more valuable than Podesednik, just look at the difference in salary, which obviously makes Pods much better to have on your team from a general manager's standpoint.
-- Brooks Coe, Kensington, Md. (7:00 a.m., Saturday)