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Perfect combination

Karl, young stars pace Nuggets to top of Northwest

Posted: Monday October 24, 2005 1:26PM; Updated: Monday October 24, 2005 6:10PM
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Northwest Division Preview
SI.com's Kelly Dwyer previews what the 2005-06 season has in store for the Northwest Division.
Follow The Leader
George Karl
George Karl
Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images
George Karl
Denver Nuggets
After his first full training camp as Denver's coach, George Karl should be ready to lead the resurgent Nuggets to their first division title in 18 years. Concurrently, he'd also like to cement his status among the NBA's coaching elite, while refining the All-Star promise of former lottery picks Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin. Anthony improved significantly over the 40 games Karl presided over last season, while a deep frontcourt should play to Karl's strengths as an Xs and Os man.

Seattle SuperSonics
Last season's Northwest Division champions should stumble a bit in their first year under new coach Bob Weiss, but they still boast enough offensive firepower to make another run at the playoffs. Weiss will speed the up the tempo up a bit on offense; while Seattle was one of the league's better offensive units last season, they did their damage while playing at a snail's pace. Though Ray Allen is back for good, they'll need a bulked-up Luke Ridnour to at least come close to matching the departed Antonio Daniels' production from last season to thrive.
Swimming Upstream
Sebastian Telfair
Sebastian Telfair
Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images
Sebastian Telfair
Portland Trail Blazers
The plan in place is a smart one: build around youngsters, accrue lottery picks and let Trail Blazers fans fall in love with their team once again. But to rebuild a franchise, you need a few seasons toiling on the fringes, and 2005-06 will be the second straight spent there for the Portland faithful. The good news? Sebastian Telfair boasts one of the more creative touches in the league, the interior defense is superb and Nate McMillan knows how to handle the kids. The bad news? Zach Randolph's rehabilitated knee may affect his leaping ability, though Randolph maintains that he "never was a leaper."

Minnesota Timberwolves
We get the feeling that the hiring of defensively-intense coach Dwane Casey may have come a few years too late. Though former coach Flip Saunders excelled in diagramming offensive sets and maintaining a solid zone defense, the Timberwolves continually ranked near the bottom of the league in blocked shots and steals. With Kevin Garnett, Trenton Hassell, Anthony Carter and Eddie Griffin on board; these current Wolves will wreak havoc on defense, but they'll struggle to score 90 points a night.
Breakout Stars
Nick Collison
Nick Collison
Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
Nick Collison
Nick Collison, Sonics
Though it gets the job done, Seattle's frontcourt is full of holes. Talented youngsters Robert Swift and Johan Petro are too green, Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman but can't score inside an empty gym and fellow glass-sweeper Danny Fortson averaged a whopping 12 fouls per 48 minutes last season. Easily the most well-rounded big on the roster, Collison's economy of movement and sturdy frame should lead to increased minutes and strong play in his second season.

Travis Outlaw, Trail Blazers
Darius Miles may have the big contract, the shoe commercials, and his own IMDB.com page, but 21-year-old Travis Outlaw has the bigger upside, minus Miles' churlish touch. An athletic marvel whose jumper is coming along quite nicely, he's a solid defender and more developed player than Miles was at the same age. Seemingly, the only thing Miles has on Outlaw is a novelty hand gesture to utilize after a made lay-up, so Outlaw does need to get his act together on that front.

Earl Watson, Nuggets
The ex-UCLA point guard wasn't just a superior defender to former Memphis teammate Jason Williams last year; he might have been the best defensive point guard in the league. He was also improved enough on offense to warrant a free- agent deal with the Nuggets. His tenacious style should fit nicely with the new-look Nuggets.

Hot Seat
Michel Olowokandi
Michael Olowokandi
David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images
Michael Olowokandi
Michael Olowokandi, C -- Timberwolves
It's not enough that Olowokandi (in a contract year) is in danger of losing his starting job, or even missing out on a contract extension. The 1998 draft's first overall pick is in danger of loping his way out of the league altogether, because we can't see any other team (not run by Isiah Thomas, at least) taking a chance on the 30-year-old center. And how is the Kandi Man going to get past the velvet rope and into nightclubs without some NBA cache in his back pocket?

John Nash, GM -- Trail Blazers
Though Nash did well in his James Watt role, ridding the Blazers of "undesirable elements" left over from the previous administration, his own signings have left a lot to be desired. Theo Ratliff, 32, is owed nearly $35 million over the next three years; flighty forwards Miles and Randolph will rake in an average of $21.5 million over the next five seasons and lesser lights - and new free-agent imports - Juan Dixon and Steve Blake have struggled so far in training camp.

Andre Miller, PG -- Nuggets
When GM Kiki Vandeweghe called Andre Miller one of the top-five point guards in the NBA last week, we had to wonder if that thin Denver air was finally getting to the Nuggets exec. Though he remains a solid player, Miller's production has declined each year since he led the league in assists back in '01-02. If he can't regain his feel for the fast-break, Watson may be handed the starting role, and Miller might be shipped out of town.

Kevin McHale, VP -- Timberwolves
Though McHale has administered a successful 10-year run at the helm of the Wolves, most of that can be traced to two moves he made in '95: drafting of Garnett and hiring Saunders. Since then, he's presided over the Joe Smith fiasco, signed a series of less-than mediocre players (your Trenton Hassells, your Troy Hudsons, your Mark Madsens) to substantial deals and watched as draft pick after draft pick dribbled its way out of the league. It's never easy firing a hometown legend, but Morris Day is also a pretty popular Minnesotan, and it doesn't mean the Timberwolves should trust him (or the rest of The Time, for that matter) to hand guaranteed contracts over to Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Ndudi Ebi.

Fresh Faces
Deron Williams
Deron Williams
Ron Hoskins/NBA via Getty Images
Deron Williams
Martell Webster, Trail Blazers
If Hornets guard J.R. Smith was able to average 10 points a game in his rookie year, seemingly limiting his shot attempts to two-handed dunks and 3-pointers, then Webster might just bring home the Rookie of the Year. Already the owner of a smooth touch from long range, Webster can also jump around the baselines with the best of them. He couldn't guard your mailman, but on the Blazers, that will hardly stick out.

Rashad McCants, Timberwolves
McCants will put shots up, usually more in one half than Trenton Hassell throws up in a week while mixing in the occasional dash into the paint. An exciting player, the former Tar Heel will encourage Timberwolves fans with his ability to get buckets, and frustrate with his absent defense and so-so passing.

Deron Williams, Jazz
Williams will struggle at times while running the point for the Jazz, but the growing pains will be worth it. In need of some help on his footwork, Williams, whose jumper will alternate between lovely and lousy, gets caught in the air sometimes and has trouble freeing himself to come toward the ball. But he's slimmed down considerably since his time at the University of Illinois, so hopefully his new and toned physique will help traverse the terrors of an 82-game season.

Burning Questions
Marko Jaric
Marko Jaric
David Sherman/NVAE via Getty Images
Marko Jaric
(1) Can Kiki put the Nuggets over the top?
Karl's positive impact is a given: he'll secure the team's defense, motivate the kids and encourage intelligent shot selection. GM Kiki Vandeweghe, however, is in the midst of a make or break season. Vandeweghe's vision with the Nuggets has never been in question; it's his execution that many question. How Vandeweghe manages to answer Denver's need for outside shooting, while deciding what to do with the futures of Andre Miller and Nenê, will go a long way towards determining whether or not this is a championship team -- or just another playoff also-ran.

(2) Who helps KG?
We already told you about McCants, and while his moxie will be appreciated by the eight-time All-Star, Garnett still needs someone else to hit shots. After six years in Minnesota, it's safe to say that Wally Szczerbiak is not that guy, and while new point guard Marko Jaric can hit from outside, he'll still prone to sleepwalking through a quarter/half/game/week or two. Garnett missed the playoffs for the first time since his rookie year in '04-05, and though we expect him to retake the "game's greatest player" mantle, he'll be on his own in '05-06.

(3) Can Jerry Sloan catch up?
You can't blame Coach Jerry Sloan for the intolerant tone he takes with the knuckleheads that seem to populate his roster every year. You can't fault him for insisting that his team refuse to give up lay-ups, or to fight through screens at all costs. And you can't blame him for Utah's 26-56 showing last season -- their first sub-.500 mark in 22 years. Still, with this current group of Jazzmen, Sloan needs to suit their individual needs and encourage them through the mistakes. Mehmet Okur has to play more, in spite of how slovenly he looks on defense. Deron Williams needs minutes, Gordan Giricek needs the ball and Sloan needs to understand that Carlos Boozer is better away from the ball then with it on the post.
Key Number
1,497 -- The number of regular-season and playoff games Sloan has coached for the Jazz since taking over in '89. George Karl ranks second among Sloan's Northwest Division brethren with 45 games coached in the division. The three other divisional counterparts (Dwane Casey, Nate McMillan, and Bob Weiss) are tied for third with zero appearances on their respective teams' sidelines. Sloan, the longest-tenured coach in professional sports, has won nearly 62 percent of his contests with the Jazz. I reckon it's time for the sportswriters to "catch up," and vote this guy his first Coach of the Year Award.
Fearless Forecast
Kenyon Martin
Kenyon Martin
Brian Bahr/NBAE
Kenyon Martin
Everything had to go right last season for Seattle to win the division last season, and even if they're able to catch lightning in a bottle again, it won't be enough to fly past the Nuggets. Utah will be in playoff contention all season, but it's hard to see the Timberwolves approaching last year's mark of 44-38. Portland is at least a few years away, though at least the backcourt foundation is secure.

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