After his impressive third-place finish last Saturday night in Richmond, Biffle races to the top of our power rankings. He's currently five points behind leader Tony Stewart in the standings, but Biffle is SI's pick to win the 2005 Nextel Cup championship. When I told Biffle on Saturday that we were tabbing him to win it all, he smiled and said, "Wise choice."
For the last month Stewart has been on cruise control. After taking five of seven checkered flags earlier in the summer, Stewart hasn't won in four starts. Has he been holding back, not wanting to show how fast his No. 20 Home Depot Chevy can go until the start of the Chase? We'll find out on Sunday in New Hampshire.
Kenseth didn't solidify his spot in the Chase until he crossed the finish line at Richmond, but it appears he's going to be a major player over the next ten weeks. Consider this: Five weeks ago Kenseth, the '03 Cup champion, was in 16th place in points and his season was seemingly a lost cause. Since then, he's been the series' most dominant driver, reeling off four straight finishes of seventh or better.
There was a certain here-we-go-again feeling drifting through the Richmond garage after Busch took the checkered flag on Saturday night. Busch, the reigning Cup champion, won the first race of the Chase last year at Louden, and now he'll roll into New Hampshire this weekend with more momentum than any other driver.
All weekend long at Richmond, Martin was remarkably calm and upbeat. This reflects, I think, the fact that Martin is very, very confident as he heads into the Chase. If Martin can get a top five finish at Louden on Sunday ?- he finished 13th there in the spring ? he'll be sitting pretty. Because up next on the schedule after New Hampshire is Dover, where Martin came in second earlier this year.
Wallace continues to be quietly fast. At Richmond he finished fifth, which was his tenth Top 10 in his last 14 starts. If you go by the stat book, Wallace will likely be in the top 10 again when the checkered flag waves in Louden, where in 21 career starts he's collected 12 Top 10 finishes.
About 90 minutes after the Richmond race was over I talked to Johnson, who'd finished 25th, about what he thought the next ten weeks have in store for him. Normally as optimistic as anyone in the sport, Johnson gave this glum assessment: "Well, I'd feel a lot better about my chances if I was in a Roush car. I mean, we've been terribly lately." Indeed, in his last three starts, Johnson has finished 25th or worse twice. In other words, he's struggling at exactly the wrong time.
Given that Edwards has a Roush engine under the hood of his No. 99 Ford, he'll be a threat to win every week of the Chase. But Edwards is the greenest and most inconsistent driver in the championship field, which makes him a long-shot to capture the title. In two career starts at Louden Edwards' best finish is 12th.
Newman was the last driver to qualify for the Chase when he out-dueled Jamie McMurray, who crashed late at Richmond, for the final spot. Though his performance has been up-and-down this season, Newman could be the surprise of the Chase. This weekend he'll no doubt be fast; in seven starts at Louden, he's got six top 10 finishes and one win.
Give Mayfield some credit: the guy's an excellent points racer. Though his No. 19 Dodge has been under-powered for most of the season, Mayfield was able to easily qualify for the Chase by consistently finishing around 15th place. This weekend, however, expect Mayfield to struggle. In 19 career starts at Louden, he's only finished in the top 10 twice.