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The heat is on

Selection Sunday could leave these teams sweating

Posted: Wednesday February 23, 2005 12:12PM; Updated: Thursday February 24, 2005 1:20PM
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Daniel Gibson
If Texas makes the tournament, it will ride on the shoulders of freshman Daniel Gibson. Gibson is the Longhorns leading scorer with 14.7 points.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

As bubble talk begins to dominate college hoops conversations, here are the 10 most attractive bubble teams and the regular-season scenarios by which they can a) play their way into the NCAA tournament or b) remain nervous wrecks on Selection Sunday.

Two scenarios are listed for each team:

Breathe Easy: The minimum a team has to achieve to guarantee itself a spot in the field of 65.
Sweat It Out: The situation in which a team stays on the selection committee's radar, but isn't ensured of getting its name on the dance card.

The focus here is only on each team's 2-4 remaining regular-season games; conference tournaments are always a last resort, but now is when the real dirty work is done. Teams are ranked in order of most-to-least qualified. (DePaul, LSU, Notre Dame, Southern Illinois, Miami of Ohio and Nevada fans, don't be alarmed -- I already consider your teams in the bracket.)

1. Stanford (15-9, 9-5 in Pac-10, RPI 40)

FINAL GAMES: at Oregon State, at Oregon, vs. Washington State, vs. Washington

The Cardinal recorded nary a notable victory in their non-conference campaign (losing to Tennessee, Louisville, Santa Clara and Michigan State) and have just one big win to their name (over Arizona at home). Their leading scorer, Dan Grunfeld, is lost for the season. But Trent Johnson's team is likely to get an NCAA invite on the basis of this argument to the committee: You can't possibly take just two teams from the Pac-10 -- and we're clearly the next-best thing after 'Zona and Washington. UCLA is the only other conference contender, and Stanford swept the Bruins this season.

BREATHE EASY: Even if the Card splits its last four games, it'll be 11-7 in league play and have closed the season on an 11-4 run. One win on the Oregon road trip and a defeat of Wazzu at home will do the trick.

SWEAT IT OUT: If Stanford loses three of its final four, it'll let the selection committee decide whether or not it can justify keeping a 10-8 Pac-10 team out of the tournament field.

2. Texas (18-8, 7-6 in Big 12, RPI 33)

FINAL GAMES: vs. Missouri, vs. Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State

Losses, of key players (forwards P.J. Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge) and games (a 1-4 stretch from Jan. 22-Feb. 8) were starting to become a theme for the Longhorns, until they resuscitated their NCAA tourney hopes with a three-game win streak from Feb. 12-19. Tuesday night's slip-up at Texas Tech, however, keeps the 'Horns on the bubble.

BREATHE EASY: Texas' RPI is high enough that if it holds serve at home by beating Mizzou and OU (and finishes 9-7 in the Big 12), it should be on solid ground.

SWEAT IT OUT: The 'Horns' resume already includes wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, and a one-point loss at Wake Forest -- so if UT were to drop two of its final three, it still has a fighting chance of receiving a bid in this year's weak at-large field. But it's no sure thing.

3. Mississippi State (18-8, 6-6 in SEC, RPI 30)

FINAL GAMES: at Georgia, vs. Ole Miss, at Arkansas, vs. Alabama

This is not the way Lawrence Roberts intended his career to be closing in Starkville -- nursing a bruised and strained quadriceps and watching his team risk NIT-dom after losing to LSU and Kentucky last week.

BREATHE EASY: The Bulldogs need to beat 'Bama to put on a strong face for the selection committee. A .500 finish in the weak SEC isn't the solution; the only loss Rick Stansbury's team can spare is at Arkansas.

SWEAT IT OUT: State can easily beat Georgia and Ole Miss to finish with 20 wins, but the 'Dogs would still have only one conference victory over a tourney-bound team (Florida) and no momentum to go along with their decent RPI.

4. Georgetown (16-8, 8-5 in Big East, RPI 51)

FINAL GAMES: vs. Villanova, at UConn, vs. Providence

The Big East is a seven-bid league, and the Hoyas are slotted for the last one -- as long as they don't go in the tank. John Thompson III needs to rally his team after the loss it suffered at St. John's on Sunday.

BREATHE EASY: The Hoyas aren't expected -- or required -- to leave Storrs with a W over the Huskies on March 2. Two home wins, over Villanova and Providence, and G'town will be dancing.

SWEAT IT OUT: Should the Hoyas only defeat Providence, leaving themselves 5-5 in their final 10 games and 1-4 in their final five, they'll have reason to fret on Selection Sunday.

5. St. Mary's (22-7, 9-3 in WCC, RPI 35)

FINAL GAMES: at San Francisco, at San Diego

The Gaels are the second-best team, behind Gonzaga, in a West Coast Conference that's unusually strong this season. The WCC's conference RPI was ranked 7th in the country, ahead of C-USA, the Mountain West and the Atlantic 10 -- but that doesn't mean St. Mary's is a tourney lock.

BREATHE EASY: Randy Bennett's team doesn't have much margin for error. Neither San Francisco nor San Diego is a pushover, but the Gaels must win both of those road games to cement their seed.

SWEAT IT OUT: If St. Mary's doesn't win out, it would help its cause more by beating the Dons (RPI 73) than the Toreros (RPI 124). But that's not a scenario the Gaels want to consider.

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