
Inside 'the bunker' (cont.)Posted: Wednesday March 9, 2005 2:13PM; Updated: Wednesday March 9, 2005 4:52PM Sunday morning, March 13Wrench-throwers, bracket-busters, whatever you want to call them -- teams with no at-large hopes that have played their way into a Sunday conference tourney final -- can still muck up the field at this point. In the event that a Miami doesn't make the ACC title game, or a Missouri doesn't pull off the same feat in the Big 12, the committee can potentially have the Field of 65 complete by Sunday morning. Schools will still be sweating it out in locales like El Paso (UTEP), Morgantown (West Virginia) and Chicago (DePaul) until the Selection Show, but who knows? In the bunker, their dance cards may have already been punched. Sunday noon, March 13Bracket-forecasting, by those on the outside, is a science that never yields 100-percent-accurate results. Until the Selection Sunday show begins at 6 p.m. on CBS, it remains, to the media, the eager public and the nervous teams, merely Speculation Sunday. And Shaheen, with a smile, says the same thing happens every year as the committee chows down its Sunday lunch: "We'll be watching the games, and Digger [Phelps] or Dick [Vitale] will say something like, 'This team is definitely in' -- and we've just voted them out." Which team will fall victim this season? Maryland, maybe? It's not too hard to conjure up a scene of Vitale, proclaiming, "You beat Duke twice, and you're in, baby!" ... Sunday early afternoon, March 13
The committee spends four days at the Westin, but no more than three hours on the bracket. "It could be as late as 2 or 3 p.m. [Sunday] before we start it," Shaheen said. Shocked? The bracket isn't an afterthought -- but selection and seeding, which depend on conference tourney results, need to be out of the way first. Once bracketing begins, Shaheen has a set of Excel Spreadsheets (see the blank example at right, or click here for an enlarged version The committee's overriding goal is to have a nationally balanced bracket based on the 1-4 seeds in each of the four regions. Let's suppose the four No. 1 seeds are (in this order) Illinois, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Kentucky. As No. 1 team on the S-Curve, Illinois won't be guaranteed of having the No. 8 team on the S-Curve -- Boston College, perhaps -- as the two-seed in the Chicago Regional. But when the committee adds up the S-Curve numbers of the top four seeds in Chicago -- say, Illinois (1), Arizona (7), Gonzaga (10) and Alabama (16) -- the total, 34, will try to be kept as close as possible to the total in Syracuse -- say, UNC (2), Boston College (8), Louisville (11) and Oklahoma (14) -- which is 35. Shaheen's spreadsheets compile these figures on the fly as the committee tinkers with the bracket, making Excel an invaluable tool. Sunday afternoon, March 13
The "Distance Determination System" -- that's the techie title of one of Shaheen's secondary spreadsheets, the tool that measures the straight-line distance, in miles, from a school potential regional and first- and second-round pod site (see example at right, or click here for an enlarged version The committee could face a distance dilemma with its last two No. 1 seeds, if Illinois and UNC are occupying the Chicago and Syracuse regions, respectively. Austin and Albuquerque would be the two destinations left for Wake Forest and Kentucky, and the committee would decide if it wants to either make one team travel a long distance (say, the Deacons to Albuquerque) or make both teams travel a decent distance (and send the 'Cats out West, and the Deacs to Texas). If Wake is ahead of UK on the seed list, it could, following this logic. In the pod setup, it is a possibility that the ACC's two No. 1s, UNC and Wake, will play their first- and second-round games in Charlotte, although since the pod system was instituted in 2002 a pair of No. 1 seeds haven't played at the same first-round site. But where does that leave Duke, if it's a No. 2? The Blue Devils are 688 miles from Indianapolis, 667 from Worcester, Mass., and 515 from Nashville, Tenn. -- so don't be surprised if Duke joins Kentucky in Nashville right off the bat. The pod system offers protection for Nos. 1-4 seeds against home-court advantage in their first-round games only. "We can only protect you for so long," Shaheen said. "After that, you've gotta be able to take care of business." Sunday, 4:15 p.m., March 13The bracket, from North Carolina to Niagara, from Charlotte to Chattanooga, is complete (almost). Collectively, the committee takes time to stare at the beast they've created -- to let it soak in, to suggest last-minute tweaks, and make sure fiascos like BYU in 2003 (when the pious Cougs were mistakenly headed for a Sunday regional) aren't repeated. Sunday, 5 p.m., March 13The fruit of four days in the bunker -- the final bracket -- is delivered to CBS. In 60 minutes, when the official Selection Show airs, the work of 10 committee members and six NCAA staffers will be devoured by the masses. Mental Madness is over, and March Madness, sweet March Madness, can unfold. Luke Winn covers college sports for SI.com. |
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