The Suns will win if ...

	Suns vs. Grizzlies (1) GAME DATE/TIME 1 @PHX Sun.,4/24, 10:30 ET 2 @PHX Wed.,4/27,10:30 ET 3 @MEM Fri., 4/29, 9:00 ET 4 @MEM Sun., 5/1, 8:00 ET 5 @PHX Tue., 5/3, TBD 6 @MEM Thu., 5/5, TBD 7 @PHX Sat., 5/7, TBD (8)
	Memphis' Jason Williams (left) will have his hands full with MVP contender Steve Nash. Joe Murphy/Getty Images
	MARTY BURNS' SERIES BREAKDOWNS Eastern Conference • Miami Heat-New Jersey Nets • Detroit Pistons-Philadelphia 76ers • Boston Celtics-Indiana Pacers • Chicago Bulls-Washington Wizards Western Conference • Phoenix Suns-Memphis Grizzlies • San Antonio Spurs-Denver Nuggets • Seattle Sonics-Sacramento Kings • Dallas Mavericks-Houston Rockets

They don't panic under playoff pressure. Steve Nash has plenty of postseason experience, but that's not the case with Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson. As the team with the NBA's best regular-season record, the Suns are in the spotlight like never before. They must be able to play through bad calls, hostile crowds and jacked-up foes. As long as Phoenix doesn't get rattled, it should be OK in this series. The Grizzlies like to run, which plays into the Suns' hands. Phoenix also had success against Memphis on the backboards this season. With Jim Jackson and Walter McCarty, the Suns have two savvy vets to give the perimeter starters a breather if they need it. Nash might have to log heavy minutes, but he's used to it by now. The Suns have heard the naysayers, and Phoenix will be ready to play here.

The Grizzlies will win if ...

They can find a way to wear down Nash. As much as the Grizzlies like to run, they can't play that way against the Suns. They must win this one on defense. That means finding ways to slow Nash. Jason Williams and Earl Watson must hound Nash up the court as much as possible and make him work. They must keep him out of the paint. At the other end they must punish him with screens and a steady diet of pick-and-rolls. If they can wear him out, the Grizzlies stand a chance. Pau Gasol gives Memphis a legit 7-foot presence down low. Mike Miller and Bonzi Wells give them two perimeter shooters who also can post up. Shane Battier and James Posey are stout defenders. The Grizzlies have the tools, but they must stay confident. After slumping badly at season's end, they could go south in a hurry if the Suns blitz them at the start.

Key matchup

Miller vs. Johnson. These two shooting guards might not be All-Stars, but they're both major contributors for their teams. Johnson has blossomed into a legit two-way force, averaging 17.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists a game. He finished second in the NBA in 3-point accuracy (a blazing 47.8 percent) despite more than 300 attempts. He'll have his hands full with Miller (13.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.9 apg), who ranked fourth in the NBA from downtown (43.3) and 17th in overall field-goal percentage (50.5). Miller's offense figures to be a key for Memphis if it hopes to keep pace with the high-scoring Suns. Coming off of a bad playoff series against the Spurs a year ago (in which he battled back pain), Miller will be looking for redemption. Johnson, meanwhile, has his own extra motivation since he will be a free agent after the season.

Interesting fact

The Suns were an NBA-best 31-10 on the road during the regular season, identical to their 31-10 home record. The Grizzlies were 26-15 at FedEx Forum, but just 19-22 on the road.

The pick

The Grizzlies play hard and smart, but their intensity will be matched in the playoffs. Nash and the Suns want to prove wrong the skeptics. Suns in five.