The Heat will win if...

	Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal will look to slow things down in order to create a half-court game. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

They control the tempo and take care of the ball. Miami must be patient and get the ball inside to Shaq. The Wizards have decent big men in Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas, so it won't be as easy for the Heat as it was against the Nets, but there's no way Washington can handle Shaq. Meanwhile, Alonzo Mourning, Udonis Haslem, Christian Laettner and Michael Doleac should be able to provide their usual supporting roles down low.

As long as Dwyane Wade, Damon Jones and Eddie Jones don't turn the ball over too much, Miami should be fine. The Wizards ranked third in the NBA in steals during the season and love to ball-hawk and raid passing lanes in an effort to get easy baskets. But Miami ranked ninth in turnovers, so it knows how to take care of the ball.

Shaq has had a week to rest his bruised thigh after sweeping New Jersey, and should be in good shape. Miami also should be confident. The Heat have won eight in a row over the Wizards, including all four this season.

The Wizards will win if...

They can turn the series into a track meet. With Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes and Antawn Jamison, the Wizards have a high-scoring perimeter trio to keep up with the Joneses (and Wade). However, they don't have the inside game to match Shaq. It's imperative then for Washington to keep the game fast-paced and get out in the open court as much as possible.

The Wizards also need to be smart in the half-court when the game does slow down. Against the Bulls, they often settled for the first open shot. Against Miami they will need to be patient and maybe get Shaq moving so he can't just hang out under the rim. If they do, they might be able to find Haywood, Thomas, and Jared Jeffries open for easy buckets inside. Washington has proven NBA scorers, decent big men and an explosive sixth man (Juan Dixon). They also have nothing to lose. But the Wizards are going to have to play much better defense than they showed during the regular season and in the first round against Chicago, or it will be a short series.

Key Matchup

Gilbert Arenas vs. Damon Jones. Arenas is an explosive scorer capable of putting up 40 points any given night. He's also a dangerous closer, as he showed when he beat the Bulls in Game 5 with a buzzer-beating jumper. But Arenas is also young and making his first playoff appearance. He must stay patient on offense, something he (and his teammates) didn't always do against the Bulls, and remember to rotate out on defense against Damon Jones and the Heat's other dangerous perimeter shooters. Jones isn't an All-Star like Arenas, but he knows his role and he does it well. He has been on fire of late, and he'll need to keep knocking down shots to make the Wizards pay for ganging up on Shaq and Wade. But more important, he must stay in front of Arenas on defense and limit his penetration. He also must remember to keep getting the ball to Shaq on offense, and not get drawn into a perimeter shooting contest.

Interesting fact

The Wizards are in the second round for the first time since losing to the Celtics in five games back in 1982. Only the L.A. Clippers (in 1976, when the franchise was known as the Buffalo Braves) have endured a longer drought.

The pick

The Wizards survived the plucky Bulls, but this is where their road ends. The Heat have a winning ticket in Shaq and Wade. They'll dish out some capital punishment. Heat in 4.