STICKING BY MY SPRING PICKS

	Patriots RB Corey Dillon ran for 1,635 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Elsa/Getty Images

I'm not switching my spring predictions very much. I'm still picking New England to beat Minnesota in Super Bowl Extra Large (XL, get it?) in February.

There is a science, a slight science, to my picks. Every year, there's a couple of stunners. Look back and see:

• 2000: Giants and Ravens, a combined 15-17 and playoff-less in 1999, go 24-8 and meet in the Super Bowl.

• 2001: Pats and Bears come from nowhere to play home playoff games.

• 2002: Jon Gruden resuscitates Bucs. Bears crash to earth.

• 2003: Raiders divebomb from 11 wins to four. Carolina, winners of eight games in the previous two years, win 11.

• 2004: Steelers go from 6-12 to 15-1, Chargers from 4-12 to 12-4. With that in mind, here's how I see the order in every division.

AFC East: New England, Buffalo, New York Jets, Miami. I'm tired of picking against a coach as smart and thorough as Bill Belichick with players as mistake-free as New England's. I like Buffalo's defense. The Jets are the best team in football I pick to not make the playoffs, but I think the Bills' running game and defense will trump them. Miami will struggle horribly on offense.

AFC North: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland. I believe the Steelers' running game will still be good, whatever the fate of Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley. Baltimore's stalwarts are aging; can they be really good for 16 games? I have my doubts. Cleveland is going to have another depressing season.

AFC South: Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston. The Jags morph into this era's no-name defense. The Colts are still really good. Tennessee edges Houston because of one reason: a healthy Steve McNair versus David Carr.

AFC West: San Diego, Kansas City, Denver, Oakland. The Chargers start to build New England-type depth. Kansas City improves markedly on defense, but not enough to beat the Schottenheimers. Denver tires of Jake Plummer's streakiness. Oakland plays a dozen 38-31 games, losing eight.

Wild cards: Buffalo, Indianapolis.

AFC Championship, at Foxboro: New England 30, San Diego 13.