5. I think it's so sad to watch these Packers. Two straight false starts when they're close to going in for a 10-6 lead. Brett Favre then gets whacked on a sack and the ball gets picked up and run the other way for a touchdown. Running into the kicker and an illegal block in the back on the same Steelers punt. Illegal shift kayoes a Sheeesh. When will the long nightmare end?

6. I think now we really are finding out how valuable Ben Roethlisberger is, aren't we?

7. I think the one thing you can't understand unless you live somewhere on the Eastern Seaboard between Washington and Boston -- or unless you once lived there -- is the intensity of a big sports event. One of the reasons players love playing here, and one of the reasons guys like Joe Gibbs get drawn back into the game magnetically, is because the games are so electric and they feel so important. I felt it Sunday night at Eagles-Redskins and I'll feel it in front of the TV tonight for Pats-Colts. So much fun. Such a gas.

8. I think the Seahawks have to re-sign Shaun Alexander. Not sure what else he can do. But he's 28, he's healthy, he hardly ever says anything dumb and he's a good man. Now, I don't think he's worth a dime over $6 million a year, but five years and $30 million sounds about right to me.

9. I think you shouldn't order the funeral flowers for the Eagles yet.

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. The goatee's not looking so good, Tiger.

b. House aficionado Shelby Morrison, the Redskins' media relations manager, might be a little too hooked to the forensic shows. She can give you a blow-by-blow of all of them, not just CSI. But it's good to run into a fellow House devotee. Great one last week, but I'm a little sick of Nurse Whatshername. A little too perfect, a little too cute. I can't see her being a nurse.

c. Trade Manny.

d. Coffeenerdness: Love the food in the press box, Redskins. Some of the best grub, particularly the Carolina pulled pork, which was phenomenal. But you've got to do something about that swill you call coffee. I believe my stomach has six holes in it this morning from that stuff.

e. I have to credit Pat Wixted, the 'Skins media czar, for getting to the stadium 7.5 hours before the game so a few of us wretches could watch the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. games. Thanks, Pat.

WHO I LIKE TONIGHT, AND I DON'T MEAN AL MICHAELS

One thing's really different about this one: The Colts have a two-game lead over several teams and a three-game lead over New England for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. In an interview I did with Tony Dungy for this week's SI, he told me something I considered highly insightful -- that this game is a must-win for the Patriots in the standings, and a must-win for the Colts from a mental standpoint.''

For the record:

• Peyton Manning is 0-7 at Foxboro since being drafted by the Colts in 1998.

• Manning has a 61.0 career passer rating in games against Bill Belichick-coached teams or Belichick-coordinated defenses.

• The Colts are 0-6 against New England in the past four years, since the Pats' three-Super Bowl run began.

• "And did you know we're playing at New England again next year?'' Dungy told me. Yup. Look at the schedule. The Patriots' 2006 home non-division foes are Indy, Detroit, Chicago, Houston and the AFC West team that finishes in the same position the Pats finish in the 2005 AFC East standings. Unless New England and Indy meet in the playoffs this year at Indy, next year would mark the fifth straight meeting of the two teams in Foxboro.

The Colts have a huge advantage on the defensive line, with bookend pass-rushers Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney combining for 14 sacks in seven games and four tackles, splitting time at DT almost evenly -- Montae Reagor and Raheem Brock at one, Larry Tripplett and Corey Simon at the other. The Patriots have Corey Dillon playing at 70 percent on a badly sprained ankle, and they could have two guys running the ball tonight (Heath Evans, Mike Cloud) who joined the team just last week: Heath Evans on Tuesday and Mike Cloud on Thursday. On the other side of the ball, the Pats thought last Sunday night that Richard Seymour would be ready with his bum knee, but he couldn't go; he has a strained knee. Seymour should play tonight, but at what level? New England needs the Vince Wilfork-Seymour-Ty Warren front -- all at least 290 -- to have a chance to stone Edgerrin James. One more note: Last week, in its seventh game, New England started its fourth strong safety (Arturo Freeman) of the season. They've had 33 different starters at 22 positions in seven games.

To make room for Cloud, New England cut Freeman.

Looks like that's going to be 34 starters in eight games now.

It's impossible to like New England tonight, which is why they'll probably win.

But I can't pick the Pats. Colts, 26-17.