5. I think at some point in the postseason -- which, stunningly, they haven't qualified for yet -- the Chicago Bears are going to have to come from behind to win. Judging by their performance in Pittsburgh, the Bears should be very worried about that.

 6. I think, if I weren't such a trusting soul, I might start to have some questions about the way Houston is losing these games. Some first draft choice questions.

7. I think, as the Colts go down what could be an undefeated path, I want to go back in time a decade to when the Bucs hired Dungy. I do this to let you know that sometimes the best hire you make is not the one with the loudest trumpets. It's the smart one. The unassuming Dungy was as much Wally Cox as Bill Parcells. Look at him now. "When we hired Tony,'' recalls Rich McKay, now Atlanta's general manager, "believe me, they didn't throw any parades in Tampa. It was not a popular pick at all. We were a franchise in desperate need of credibility and stability. Only I had it reversed. We actually needed stability first, then credibility. I realized that after Jimmy Johnson and Steve Spurrier turned us down and then we had a list of maybe eight candidates. Tony was fifth or sixth on that list. I was doing some interviews out at the East-West [College All-Star] Game out west. Big-time Bucs, you know. I was interviewing guys in a hotel room, a single room, right there on the bed. Tony had broken his glasses and one of the earpieces was off the glasses. They were tilted to one side. After about an hour, I finally had to say, 'Will you please take those glasses off? They're driving me crazy.' But everything about his resume said winner.''

Everything about the early days said loser. In 1996, when the Bucs lost at home to Detroit, 27-0 in Week 5 to go 0-5, the 35,000 empty seats reminded everyone how hopeless this team was. Not Dungy. The night of the game, his wife, Lauren, asked him why he didn't just air out his underachieving masses. "Because they're really trying,'' he said. The day after the game, when McKay and Dungy gathered to watched the game tape, McKay said there was no screaming. "Tony kept saying how good the players were. I knew, walking out of that meeting, we'd be OK.'' And John Lynch, then a fourth-year Bucs safety, told me: "The problem with our franchise was we always were looking for the magic pill. And right about that time, Tony would be watching film with us and he'd say, 'The answer's right here. Look at that missed tackle.' He convinced us we were good and we didn't need any savior.'' In other words, all you teams looking for new coaches, don't look for a magic pill. Look for a good coach.

8. I think this is the latest from U.S. Army Sgt. First Class Mike McGuire, whose men -- they call themselves the "Wolf Pack'' -- are on the ground in Iraq looking for the IED's, the homemade explosive devices that are killing so many innocent people. Where, I don't know. His whereabouts must be kept secret. But here's his heartfelt note.

"We are here enjoying the sand,'' he e-mailed me last week. "It's everywhere. All I need is a lawn chair and a drink with an umbrella in it. Is there a city in this country? It's flat everywhere and seems like the people just come from the sand. We shot and zeroed all of our weapons systems and are ready to move forward. Did my wife send you the picture of my platoon? [She did.] I just wanted you to see the soldiers I work with. One in particular is this young kid named Private Jewell. We call him "Jittering Jewell." He is always worried and wanting to call home. We keep him under wraps. He's a good kid. Little more time away from Mommy and he will be OK. His dad is a big follower of your column, so he lets his son know when you write about me. One thing I am proud of is that these young soldiers are well-trained and ready to do whatever it takes to accomplish the mission and return home. You should see how we have been living for the past few weeks. We have 70 guys crammed into one large tent. Really, I have about two feet of living space on each side of me. Some guys have even less. But we don't complain. Smaller walls bring you closer. Water for running showers is at a premium. Around 9 at night, it's hard to get. Chow here is excellent. In this dining facility in the middle of the desert they have a Baskin Robbins. Can you believe it? Spent my birthday today loading up the vehicles getting ready for roll out. The 'pucker factor' is high when riding through towns or the desert or any area for that matter. It's a rush like I have not felt, like a altered sense of awareness. Things will really start to pick up soon. I will keep you posted.''

You know what I think when I read that? I think I will never experience a "pucker factor'' in my life, at any point, the way McGuire's men experience it every day.

9. I think progress on a losing team is sometimes hard to spot. But I like one of the things Mike Nolan is doing to lead the woeful 49ers out of the woeful jungle. When the team gathers on Mondays to analyze game tape, Nolan and the coaches leave the room. It's players only. And the players analyze the tape, admitting their own mistakes and taking accountability for their actions. The coaches do go through the tape with the players, but the players do it on their own first. Nolan thinks it's a good way to tell players: You guys play, and you have to show your teammates you're playing as hard as you can on every play.

10. I think these are my non-football thoughts of the week:

a. Reggie Bush, of course, was the right choice for the Heisman. I still can't figure out Vince Young saying he felt he "let down'' his fans. Dude, you let your fans down when you stink in a big game or play poorly. You got outdone by a combo platter of Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk. Letdown? Silly.

b. Manny Ramirez for Miguel Tejada makes so much sense it'll never happen. Manny can go hit 53 homers in a place where the games don't matter, which is just what he wants. Tejada can play in a place where all 617 at-bats feel like playoff at-bats, which is just what he wants.

c. Toronto just got a whole lot better.

d. Coffeenerdness: Changing planes in Dulles Airport Saturday morning, on the way from Newark to Pittsburgh, a guy, maybe 30, sees me walking to my gate and says, "Hey, totally agree with you on the eggnog lattes."

e. Let's not give the Mets the pennant just yet. 

f. I simply can't buy that Brad Wilkerson and Termell Sledge is the best the Rangers could do for a C-minus fielding middle infielder who hits 38 homers every year. To not get a pitcher, any pitcher, for Alfonso Soriano is unconscionable. Those two new guys mean the Rangers now have 27 Laynce Nixes on their roster.

g. I may have been a bit hasty about Curb Your Enthusiasm. The last show, with Dustin Hoffman playing one of Larry David's ushers through the afterlife, is one of the best scenes the show's every put out. The best, of course, is Wandering Bear curing Oscar the German Shepherd of his throat problems and Susan refusing to pay him what he's owed and delivering a blistering diatribe. "You're better than that,'' he tsk-tsks her. And Larry chimes in: "No she's not.'' I could watch that scene 300 times and ask for it a 301st.

i. We better pay attention to global warming. I'm allowed seven political words out of 4,500 per column, aren't I?

j. Even in winter, I love road trips to Pittsburgh. Great town. Such passion for football.

k. Happy one-year bar mitzvah anniversary to the biggest MMQB fans on Long Island. Have a great year, guys.

l. I want to take a minute and praise a peer, Mike Garafolo of the Newark Star-Ledger, for a great lead in his Giants story the other day. It says everything about the cat-quick New York pass-rush. "Michael Strahan stepped on the scale after Wednesday's practice and took a look at the incredible shrinking number: 248. Those are his pounds, not career sacks, though at this rate, the latter could soon catch the former.'' Nice job, Mike.

Who I Like Tonight, and I Don't Mean Al Michaels

The schedule of the last three weeks in ABC Monday Night Football history: Tonight: New Orleans (3-9) at Atlanta (7-5);  Dec. 19: Green Bay (2-11) at Baltimore (4-8); Dec. 26: New England (7-5) at New York Jets (3-10). Sheesh. Better make this game at least slightly interesting, Michael Vick. All that's left is John Madden waxing biff-bam-boomingly about Brett Favre next week and a bunch of Reggie Bush-dreaming for drunken Jets' fans the day after Christmas.

By the way: Atlanta 23, New Orleans 9.