Extra MustardSI On CampusFantasyPhoto GalleriesSwimsuitVideoFanNationSI KidsTNT

The Front Nine

Longshot picks for the PGA Championship

Posted: Wednesday August 10, 2005 1:11PM; Updated: Wednesday August 17, 2005 5:48PM
Free E-mail AlertsE-mail ThisPrint ThisSave ThisMost PopularRSS Aggregators

Want to see golf from the fan's perspective? Then welcome to From The Gallery. SI.com's Scott Wraight's weekly Front Nine will focus on a specific golf topic and offer up a list of the nine best (or worst) as he sees it. If you want to weigh in on the topic, just fill in the blanks of our reader reaction box below the list.

The venue for the 87th PGA Championship, Baltusrol Golf Club, has been the site of 15 national championships in the last 110 years -- most recently, the 1993 U.S. Open. At 7,392 yards, Baltusrol is the longest par-70 in PGA history. In fact, two par 4s will measure longer than 500 yards. And the par-5 17th, which measures at 650 yards, will be the longest hole in major championship history.

Needless to say, the big hitters have a decidedly large edge this week. But they'll still need to hit their share of fairways and drain a few lengthy putts if they expect to win the final major of the year. That's why the most important stat this week could be total driving, which is a combination of driving distance and accuracy.

With that in mind, and this being the PGA, I thought it would be a good time to present a few longshot picks. If Shaun Micheel ('03), Rich Beem ('02) and Mark Brooks ('96) can win this major, any of the guys below have a somewhat realistic shot. But it'll be tough, considering 97 of the top 100 players are in the field this week.

Only players ranked outside the top 50 were considered for inclusion to this list.

Front 9
Harry How/Getty Images
1. Geoff Ogilvy
World Ranking: 52 Past Results - '04: T-24, '03: T-27
One of the streakiest players on Tour, Ogilvy has a tendency to fade on the weekend. He has been playing excellent golf lately, going 12 events without missing a cut while finishing inside the top 25 four times. For the season, Ogilvy has made 17 of 20 cuts, including three top 10s. He also earned his first career title in March at the Chrysler Classic. Ogilvy is long enough off the tee to keep up with the big boys at Baltusrol. But where he might have an edge is with the flat stick, where he's ranked 24th. And if you think Ogilvy can't compete in the bigger events, think again. He finished T-28 at the U.S. Open and T-5 at the British Open. If he can consistently hit the fairway and drain a few lengthy putts, you should see Ogilvy come the weekend -- maybe even Page 1 of the leaderboard.
Front 9
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
2. Billy Mayfair
World Ranking: 65 Past Results - '04: NA, '03: MC
Mayfair is having one of his best seasons ever, making 21 of 22 cuts to go along with six top-10 finishes. He also had a runner-up finish at the Colonial. And yet Mayfair's stellar season is flying well below the radar this year. In his last 10 events, the ASU grad has five top 20s. He might be a tad short off the tee (287 average), but he finds the fairway more times than not -- he's actually ranked 3rd in total driving. This will be Mayfair's first major of the year but his 15th appearance at the PGA Championship. If Mayfair is going to be a serious contender this week, he'll have to maintain a hot putter from the onset.
Front 9
A. Redington/Getty Images
3. Trevor Immelman
World Ranking: 60 Past Results - '04: T-37, '03: T-48
Like Mayfair, Immelman lags a bit off the tee (287). But he does have a tendency of stepping up in the larger events: T-5 at Masters, T-15 at British Open. What may be Immelman's saving grace is his knack of hitting fairways. Between the Euro and PGA Tours, Immelman has made 13 of 17 cuts with three top 10s. Since he's only an average putter, it'll be crucial that Immelman hit fairways to give himself a chance at putting his approach shot close to the pin. Otherwise, he'll have to rely on sinking 20-25 foot putts.
Front 9
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
4. Robert Allenby
World Ranking: 56 Past Results - '04: T-9, '03: T-39
Allenby, who started the season with three straight missed cuts, has been up and down all year. That could be attributed to swelling he's had in his right hand since February. Allenby admits that the numbness has really affected his chipping and putting -- he's ranked 119th with the flat stick this year. He missed the cut at The International last week, but his 4th-place finish at the Buick Open two weeks ago is a positive sign. He hasn't played well in the majors this year, so it'll be crucial he gets off to a good start. If the Aussie can get the putter going, you'll see him on the weekend.
Front 9
Stuart Franklin/Getty Images
5. Mark Calcavecchia
World Ranking: 126 Past Results - '04: DQ, '03: T-39
If not for numerous health issues, Calc would've been one of the better players on Tour for years. Whether it was recovering from knee surgery, battling back spasms, sore ribs or sleep apnea, there always seemed to be something wrong with Calc. In fact, he battled back spasms at this year's Players. But if he can stay healthy and patient, look out. For the year, he's made 13 of 19 cuts with three top 10s, including a runner-up at the Chrysler Classic. But what makes Calc a decent option this week is the way he's been playing lately, having not missed a cut since the Memorial in early June.
Front 9
Scott Halleran/Getty Images
6. Joe Durant
World Ranking: 82 Past Results - '04: MC, '03: T-39
If Durant is going to be a factor, it'll be because of his ability to hit fairways. He's been hot and cold all year, making 10 of 17 cuts, including three top 10s. He's ranked 5th in total driving, but he's only hit 10 or more fairways in a round once since early May. This, combined with the fact Durant's ranked 169th in putting, doesn't bode well heading to Baltusrol. But if he can get hot with the putter -- at the Honda Classic, he had seven one-putts -- he might stick around for the weekend.
Front 9
A. Redington/Getty Images
7. Nick Dougherty
World Ranking: 100
Making First PGA Championship Appearance
Since he plays almost exclusively on the Euro Tour, golf fans in the U.S. aren't too familiar with the 23-year-old Dougherty. After starting the season on fire by making nine straight cuts with three top-10 finishes, Dougherty has cooled considerably -- missing two of his last three cuts. All said, he's made 17 of23 cuts, including five top 10s and a win at the Caltrex Masters. Baltusrol might present some problems for Dougherty since he's not terribly long off the tee (291), but his accuracy and putting may keep him around.
Front 9
Stuart Franklin/Getty Images
8. Alex Cejka
World Ranking: 91 Past Results - '04: MC, '03: 4th
Considering he hasn't finished inside the top 20 since the Players Championship in March, and has made just 11 of 21 cuts, Cejka is a gut-instinct pick. What's promising is that after missing four straight cuts from April to May, Cejka has missed just two cuts in his last seven events. He's not long off the tee, and he's been terrible with the flat stick (179th), so Cejka has to hit just about every fairway this week to have a chance.
Front 9
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
9. Lucas Glover
World Ranking: 148
Making First PGA Championship Appearance
He's been ice-cold lately, missing four straight cuts, but Glover is like Ogilvy in that he's one of the streakiest players on Tour. Between the end of February and the beginning of May, Glover had five top 10s. For the season, he's made just 9 of 19 cuts but has six top-10 finishes. Glover has the distance for Baltusrol, but he'll be hurt by inaccuracy off the tee, where he's hit 10 or more fairways in an event just twice this year.
Just missed the cut:
Ben Crane, Tim Herron, Bo Van Pelt, Steve Elkington, Fredrik Jacobson.

Reader reactions to last week's column regarding cities that should host a PGA Tour event:

Vancouver should again host a Tour stop because, besides being the most beautiful city in North America (sorry, Seattle, but you know it's true), when we had a tour stop for a few years in the '90s, the crowds were huge -- despite the fact that the big guns never showed up and the event was up against an Indy car race which also drew huge crowds.
-- William, Vancouver, Canada

Why not Boston? Massachusetts ranks in the top five in rounds played per year per capita. We have great courses, including a nearly 8,000-yard international with a par-6 that Gary Player birdied in an exhibition. Love to see the pros hitting 3- or 4-irons into par 4s for a change.
-- Paul, Watertown, Mass.

Salt Lake City. This city is starving for big-time sports. We love the Jazz despite two straight lottery seasons. Real Salt Lake is second in the MLS in attendance in its inaugural expansion year. And the University of Utah is coming off a sweet 16/BCS bowl year with No. 1 draft picks in the NBA and NFL. We are ready for the big time. Give us a PGA event.
-- Nick, Salt Lake City, Utah

Thanks for putting both Kansas City and St. Louis on your list. While I'm partial to K.C., I just want a PGA Tour event that I can drive to. Right now, my only options are Chicago or Dallas, both at least seven hours away. The Pacific Northwest has the same complaint. What I'd be interested to see is a proposal of which tournaments get relocated to make room for Seattle or Portland and Kansas City or St. Louis.
-- Scott, Overland Park, Kan.

Search